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Oklahoma 31 at Tennessee 24

TENN
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT2 0:00 · Joshua Dobbs pass intercepted Zack Sanchez return for 5 yds to the Okla 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 8:20: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +15.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 0:40: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +38.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Jalen Hurd run for 8 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +17.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Baker Mayfield run for 1 yd for a TD Baker Mayfield run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +37.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +19.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 10 of 11OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 9:51TENN 4th & 1 at OU 1, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:22OU 4th & 25 at OU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:49TENN 4th & 15 at TENN 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:57OU 4th & 6 at OU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:44OU 4th & 3 at OU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:45TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:32OU 4th & 10 at OU 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:18OU 4th & 1 at OU 40, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:43TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 12, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:56OU 4th & 3 at TENN 18, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.7%−1.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−10.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:05TENN 4th & 14 at TENN 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−3.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:26OU 4th & 4 at TENN 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:25TENN 4th & 16 at OU 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:02OU 4th & 8 at OU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:14TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−2.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:49OU 4th & 16 at OU 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−2.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:05TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  18. Q3 5:36OU 4th & 8 at OU 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  19. Q3 2:31TENN 4th & 25 at TENN 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−2.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 14:13TENN 4th & 21 at OU 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−1.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    91.0%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:06TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−2.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:56TENN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:14TENN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:20OU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:40OU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−3.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:5360% → 60%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
39.8%
Samaje Perine run for 11 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
39.9%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 35Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+16
40.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 16 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
40.1%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the Tenn 49Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
40.2%
Baker Mayfield pass intercepted Todd Kelly Jr. return for 4 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:0441% → 43%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
40.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
50
+15
40.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 15 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
41.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
41.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 11 yds to the Okla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
41.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 7 yds to the Okla 17Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
41.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+12
41.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 12 yds to the Okla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
42.0%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 6Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
42.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 5 yds to the Okla 1Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.1%
Alvin Kamara run for no gain to the Okla 1Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
42.5%
Aaron Medley 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -15 yds · 2:0858% → 56%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
42.5%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Orlando Brown) to the Okla 15Similar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+1
42.8%
Joe Mixon run for 1 yd to the Okla 16Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 19
OWN 16
-3
43.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 13Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 22
OWN 13
-3
43.6%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 10Similar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 25
OWN 10
+55
44.0%
Austin Seibert punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the TENNESSEE 45 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Tenn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1643% → 43%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
43.1%
Pig Howard run for 12 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
44.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 45Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
43.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 12
OWN 45
-3
43.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Tenn 47 TENNESSEE Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Joshua Dobbs) to the Tenn 42Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
43.1%
Trevor Daniel punt for 52 yds, downed at the Okla 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2856% → 55%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
44.4%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Okla 10Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 10
0
44.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
44.9%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 6
OWN 10
+2
45.3%
Austin Seibert punt for 43 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 2 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:4445% → 51%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
45.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Okla 48Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+2
45.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+10
45.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 10 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
46.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 12 yds to the Okla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
46.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 9 yds to the Okla 15Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+3
46.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Okla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
46.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the Okla 9Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
50.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 9 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1250% → 48%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
50.3%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (Dede Westbrook) to the Okla 20Similar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
50.6%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
50.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Samaje PerineSimilar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 7 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
51.7%
Austin Seibert punt for 53 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 1 yd to the Tenn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4551% → 50%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
50.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
51.1%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
50.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin KamaraSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
50.2%
Trevor Daniel punt for 58 yds, downed at the Okla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:0348% → 46%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
52.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 7 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+6
51.9%
Baker Mayfield run for 6 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
52.7%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
53.1%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Sterling ShepardSimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
53.9%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Sterling ShepardSimilar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
54.4%
Austin Seibert punt for 20 yds, downed at the Tenn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 0:4654% → 68%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+34
54.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 19 yds to the TENNESSEE 36 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Okla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
54.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 15 yds to the Okla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
54.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Okla 4Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:4335% → 33%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
64.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+7
65.4%
Joe Mixon run for 7 yds to the Okla 15Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+16
65.8%
Joe Mixon run for 16 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
65.1%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-2
65.6%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 34Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+6
66.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 6 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
67.1%
Austin Seibert punt for 55 yds, downed at the Tenn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1770% → 70%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
70.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 8Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+4
70.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 3
OWN 12
0
70.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 3
OWN 12
+61
69.6%
Trevor Daniel punt for 61 yds , Sterling Shepard returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 2:2431% → 35%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
69.0%
Samaje Perine run for 9 yds to the Okla 35Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+1
67.3%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
68.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 29 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
66.7%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+3
67.2%
Baker Mayfield run for 3 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+5
68.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
67.2%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Connor KnightSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
67.8%
Baker Mayfield run for 7 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
68.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
65.4%
Austin Seibert 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3967% → 68%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
67.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
67.8%
Alvin Kamara run for no gain to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-7
67.1%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Devante Bond for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 23 Joshua Dobbs fumbled, recovered by TennSimilar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 14
OWN 23
+16
67.8%
Trevor Daniel punt for 49 yds , Sterling Shepard returns for 16 yds to the Okla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3032% → 31%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
68.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 15 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
68.1%
Joe Mixon run for 4 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
68.2%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-5
69.0%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (Orlando Brown) to the Tenn 42Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+7
70.2%
Joe Mixon run for 7 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
69.2%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Sterling ShepardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16END OF HALF
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1073% → 76%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
73.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 9 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
74.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
73.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-11
76.0%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Devante Bond and Jordan Wade for a loss of 11 yards to the Tenn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:1575% → 74%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
74.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 31 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
75.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 20 yds to the Okla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
76.3%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 30Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 16
OPP 30
0
76.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alex EllisSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 16
OPP 30
0
75.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alex EllisSimilar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 16
OPP 30
+48
74.3%
Aaron Medley 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1626% → 23%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
74.1%
Baker Mayfield run for 4 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
74.1%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Sterling ShepardSimilar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-2
75.1%
Baker Mayfield sacked by D. Barnett and - Team for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 32Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
76.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 43 yds, downed at the Tenn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:2478% → 79%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
77.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 24Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
77.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 5 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
78.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Marquez North for 9 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
79.7%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Josh Malone) to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+3
80.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
80.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Marquez NorthSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
79.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+11
79.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 55 yds , Sterling Shepard returns for 11 yds to the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:0621% → 19%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
78.8%
Baker Mayfield run for 3 yds to the Okla 23Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-4
79.3%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 19Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
80.2%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 11
OWN 19
-5
80.5%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Okla 14Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
80.6%
Austin Seibert punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3984% → 82%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
83.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Marquez NorthSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
83.6%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
83.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin KamaraSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
82.4%
Trevor Daniel punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2320% → 18%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
80.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Joe MixonSimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
81.0%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the Okla 11Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+2
81.9%
Baker Mayfield run for 2 yds to the Okla 13Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
82.3%
Austin Seibert punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 2:4985% → 88%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
85.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for 5 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+7
85.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
86.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
86.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 9 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
86.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
87.3%
Von Pearson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 39Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 13
OPP 39
-12
87.5%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Steven Parker and Eric Striker for a loss of 12 yards to the Tenn 49Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 25
OWN 49
0
88.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 25
OWN 49
0
87.9%
Trevor Daniel punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:2614% → 14%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
85.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 7 yds to the Okla 18Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+2
85.8%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Okla 20Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+2
86.3%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Okla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
86.5%
Baker Mayfield pass intercepted Todd Kelly Jr. return for 1 yd to the Okla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:4792% → 90%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-12
91.7%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 12 yards to the Okla 41 Jalen Hurd fumbled, recovered by Tenn Jalen HurdSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 22
OPP 41
+1
91.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd to the Okla 40Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 21
OPP 40
0
91.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Marquez NorthSimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 21
OPP 40
0
90.2%
Trevor Daniel punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26TD
19 plays · 80 yds · 5:3512% → 27%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
88.4%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds to the Okla 23Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
88.6%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Jalen Reeves-Maybin for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 22Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+10
89.0%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Holding (Colton Jumper) to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
88.0%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (Orlando Brown) to the Okla 27Similar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+1
88.8%
Baker Mayfield run for 1 yd to the Okla 28Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+11
89.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 11 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-5
88.3%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (Nila Kasitati) to the Okla 34Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+10
89.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Holding (Colton Jumper) to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
88.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for 7 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+10
87.9%
Samaje Perine run for 10 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Sterling ShepardSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
88.6%
Samaje Perine run for 6 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+18
88.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 18 yds to the Tenn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
87.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 5 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+5
87.2%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Tenn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
87.7%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Tenn 3Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
88.2%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Tenn 2Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3884% → 85%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.2%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
84.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 21Similar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-6
84.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Coleman Thomas) to the Tenn 15Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+8
84.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 8 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+14
85.2%
Trevor Daniel punt for 51 yds , Sterling Shepard returns for 14 yds to the Okla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 28TD
16 plays · 60 yds · 5:1520% → 60%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
80.1%
Baker Mayfield run for 7 yds to the Okla 47Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
78.9%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
79.4%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
78.9%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Jarvis BaxterSimilar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
80.1%
Baker Mayfield run for 6 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+13
80.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 13 yds to the Tenn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
77.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 31Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+15
81.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Malik Foreman) to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
78.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 9 yds Dede Westbrook fumbled, recovered by Okla Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 7
0
77.0%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the Tenn 7Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+5
78.7%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Tenn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
78.1%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dede Westbrook) to the Tenn 12Similar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
78.6%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
77.6%
Baker Mayfield run for 5 yds to the Tenn 5Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
40.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
55.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 30TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
64.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Pig Howard for 8 yds to the Okla 17Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
64.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Marquez NorthSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+5
62.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 5 yds to the Okla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
64.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Okla 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
82.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 8 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 31TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 52%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
80.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 19 yds to the Tenn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
79.3%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Tenn 5Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.3%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
84.9%
Baker Mayfield run for 4 yds to the Tenn 1Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.8%
Baker Mayfield run for 1 yd for a TD Baker Mayfield run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 32TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 79%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
40.5%
Dede Westbrook run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 26Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+8
41.1%
Samaje Perine run for 8 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
21.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 33Uncategorized
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0028% → 20%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
28.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Okla 23Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
28.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-4
21.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Brett Kendrick) to the Okla 27Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+5
19.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass intercepted Zack Sanchez return for 5 yds to the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:40
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
-38.5
TD · OT 0:00
Baker Mayfield run for 1 yd for a TD Baker Mayfield run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
-37.1
TD · OT2 0:00
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
-19.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com