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Oklahoma 27 at Auburn 21

AUB
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-4.1AUB 68.7%Zach Schmit 24 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 14 · Q3 2:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:26 · Zach Schmit 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Home team on offense+3.4Pregame prior+3.0Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:52: Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 31 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK) — AUB win probability +6.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:41: Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 48 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK) — AUB win probability +9.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:12: Payton Thorne pass complete to Luke Deal for 1 yd for a TD (Towns McGough KICK) — AUB win probability +15.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:32: Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — OU win probability +21.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:06: Kip Lewis 63 Yd Interception Return (Michael Hawkins Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion) — OU win probability +46.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:50AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:27AUB 4th & 1 at OU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−2.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:25OU 4th & 5 at OU 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:05AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:54OU 4th & 20 at OU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−1.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:39OU 4th & 7 at AUB 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    42.9%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:35OU 4th & 5 at OU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:01OU 4th & 11 at OU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:00AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:26OU 4th & 6 at AUB 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−11.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:45AUB 4th & 1 at OU 3, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.5%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    65.1%−5.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−19.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:43OU 4th & 10 at AUB 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:12AUB 4th & 10 at OU 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    88.6%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:54AUB 4th & 11 at AUB 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.1%−3.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:54OU 4th & 7 at AUB 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−3.9
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−20.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:01AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.3%−8.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:30OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:52AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:41AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:12AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:32OU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.8 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.0%−1.8
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:06OU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    56.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    56.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0561% → 61%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for no gain to the AUB 25Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
60.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 23Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
60.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
60.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds , Peyton Bowen returns for no gain to the OU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:0039% → 40%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
60.7%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 15 yds to the OU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
60.5%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the OU 49Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+3
60.5%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+48
59.6%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 48 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3DOWNS
15 plays · 74 yds · 6:5760% → 58%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
59.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Rivaldo FairweatherSimilar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
59.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 15 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
59.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 41Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+12
59.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Robert Lewis for 12 yds to the OU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
59.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 11 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
59.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 20 yds to the OU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
59.2%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the OU 13Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+7
59.1%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the OU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
58.9%
Sam Jackson V run for no gain to the OU 6Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
58.8%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the OU 3Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
58.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the OU 1Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.9%
Sam Jackson V run for no gain to the OU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4543% → 43%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
57.2%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the OU 4Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+2
57.1%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the OU 6Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
56.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for no gain to the OU 6Similar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+2
57.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 56 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 2 yds to the AUB 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0557% → 55%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
57.1%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-5
57.2%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Rivaldo Fairweather) to the AUB 38Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
55.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
55.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Malcolm SimmonsSimilar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 12
OWN 38
+57
55.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 62 yds for a touchback Auburn Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:5445% → 45%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.0%
Jovantae Barnes run for 1 yd to the OU 26Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
54.8%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the OU 28Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-14
54.6%
Hawkins Jr., Michael pass complete to Sharp, Bauer for 48 yards to the AUB24, PENALTY OU pass interference (Roberts, Jake) 14 yards to the OU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+1
54.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 1 yd to the OU 15Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
55.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AUB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:3355% → 63%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+34
54.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 34 yds to the OU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
56.1%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
56.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the OU 31Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+31
62.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 31 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:5640% → 41%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
59.8%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 15 yds to the OU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
58.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 8 yds to the OU 48Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
57.9%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
57.6%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the AUB 48Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
57.6%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 2 yds to the AUB 46Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
57.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Jake RobertsSimilar
Q2 9:39
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
59.2%
Luke Elzinga punt for 27 yds, downed at the AUB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 3:4961% → 72%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
61.4%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the AUB 22Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-2
61.4%
Damari Alston run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 20Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+9
60.4%
Damari Alston run for 9 yds to the AUB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
61.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 3 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+8
61.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 8 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
62.8%
Damari Alston run for 12 yds to the OU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
72.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 48 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5330% → 28%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
69.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the OU 25Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
70.0%
Jovantae Barnes run for 5 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-2
70.3%
Michael Hawkins Jr. sacked by Demarcus Riddick for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 28Similar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+10
71.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 50 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 10 yds to the AUB 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11DOWNS
16 plays · 60 yds · 3:1572% → 74%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
71.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 33Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
71.3%
Thorne, Payton rush for 4 yards to the AUB37, PENALTY OU offside 5 yards to the AUB38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
73.0%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
73.1%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the OU 48Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+7
73.8%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the OU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
73.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 12 yds to the OU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
74.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the OU 22Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+3
73.6%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the OU 19 Payton Thorne fumbled, forced by Trace Ford, recovered by AUB Payton Thorne for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-6
73.6%
Payton Thorne sacked by Kobie McKinzie for a loss of 6 yards to the OU 25Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 16
OPP 25
+6
71.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the OU 19Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+6
72.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 6 yds to the OU 13Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+5
72.0%
McGough, Towns field goal attempt from 31 MISSED - wide left, spot at OU20, clock 00:01, PENALTY OU illegal procedure 5 yards to the OU8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUB.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 8
+27
74.1%
Towns McGough 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:3930% → 28%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.5%
Jovantae Barnes run for 1 yd to the OU 26Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
70.7%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
71.6%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the OU 31 for a 1ST down Auburn Penalty, Defensive Holding (Keionte Scott) to the OU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
69.4%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Jaquaize PettawaySimilar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
69.8%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Bauer Sharp for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 40Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
71.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
72.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 48 yds , Keionte Scott returns for no gain to the AUB 40 Auburn Penalty, Offensive Holding (6 Yards) to the AUB 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:5372% → 73%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
71.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 11 yds to the AUB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
71.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the AUB 22Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+6
72.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 6 yds to the AUB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
73.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-5
74.2%
Auburn Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the AUB 30Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
74.7%
Damari Alston run for 1 yd to the AUB 31Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
74.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+26
73.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Eli Bowen at the OU 28 for a 1ST down Auburn Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Malcolm Simmons) to the OU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 6:1929% → 31%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
70.8%
Jovantae Barnes run for 16 yds to the AUB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
69.2%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the AUB 38Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+2
69.2%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the AUB 36Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+6
69.7%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 6 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
69.6%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-5
69.4%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Jovantae Barnes) to the AUB 33Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 13
OPP 33
-5
71.2%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the AUB 28 Oklahoma Penalty, Illegal Block (Jaquaize Pettaway) to the AUB 38Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 18
OPP 38
+21
73.3%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to J.J. Hester for 21 yds to the AUB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
70.3%
Hawkins Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Thompson, Brenen, PENALTY AUB pass interference (Lee, Kayin) 15 yards to the AUB2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OU.Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
70.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 3Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
70.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the AUB 2Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 0
OPP 2
-5
71.3%
Hawkins Jr., Michael pass complete to Barnes, Jovantae for 2 yards to the AUB0, PENALTY OU illegal motion 5 yards to the AUB7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
72.7%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the AUB 6Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
68.7%
Zach Schmit 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:3374% → 89%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
73.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 4 yds to the AUB 46Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+42
74.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 42 yds to the OU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
76.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+9
76.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 9 yds to the OU 3Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
75.8%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the OU 3Similar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
74.2%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the OU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Luke Deal for 1 yd for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:0712% → 11%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
87.7%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 35 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
85.0%
Jovantae Barnes run for 9 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-9
83.9%
Sawchuk, Gavin rush for 16 yards to the AUB15, PENALTY OU holding (Roberts, Jake) 9 yards to the AUB40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
85.6%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Kade McIntyre) to the AUB 45Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
87.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Gavin SawchukSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+5
88.6%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to J.J. Hester for 5 yds to the AUB 40Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 10
OPP 40
-5
89.0%
Michael Hawkins Jr. sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 5 yards to the AUB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17MISSED FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:1890% → 91%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
90.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 22 yds to the OU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
92.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Robert LewisSimilar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
91.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
91.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the OU 33Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+51
90.8%
Towns McGough 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:2810% → 33%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
89.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the OU 35Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+60
90.7%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to J.J. Hester for 60 yds to the AUB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
87.9%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the AUB 2Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.8%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19INT TD
8 plays · 32 yds · 4:0982% → 42%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 24Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
83.6%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
84.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 6 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
85.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 16 yds to the OU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
88.2%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the OU 41Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-2
89.0%
Damari Alston run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 43Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-63
42.1%
Kip Lewis 63 Yd Interception Return (Michael Hawkins Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:4536% → 28%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
36.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Robert Lewis for 10 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
37.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+1
37.1%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the AUB 44Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-6
35.0%
Payton Thorne sacked by R Mason Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the AUB 38Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 11
OWN 38
-13
27.6%
Payton Thorne sacked by R Mason Thomas for a loss of 13 yards to the AUB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21FG
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:5290% → 94%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
10.2%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the AUB 23Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-5
9.2%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Brenen Thompson) to the AUB 28Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+3
8.8%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+3
8.4%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the AUB 22Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
5.9%
Zach Schmit 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 62 yds · 0:4611% → 10%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
11.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 10 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-9
11.0%
Payton Thorne sacked by Robert Spears-Jennings for a loss of 9 yards to the AUB 26Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+18
10.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 18 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
11.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Rivaldo FairweatherSimilar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+43
10.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 43 yds to the OU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:06
Kip Lewis 63 Yd Interception Return (Michael Hawkins Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)
-46.8
TD · Q4 8:32
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-21
TD · Q4 14:12
Payton Thorne pass complete to Luke Deal for 1 yd for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)
+15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com