Colorado State

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0933rd
  Defense+0.0861st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.2%44th
  Defense42.4%41st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2336th
  Defense+1.2165th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.0213th
  Defense+0.0559th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2365th
  Defense+0.1068th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.0%29th
  Defense47.6%47th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.0%73rd
  Defense30.3%53rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8830th
  Defense3.0147th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense21.0%17th
  Defense15.9%31st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.9%52nd
  Defense17.0%59th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Colorado State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   TEX
2. W
   UNCO
3. L
   COLO
4. W
   UTEP
5. L
   ORST
6. W
   SJSU
7. W
   AF
8. W
   UNM
9. W
   NEV
10. W
    WYO
11. L
    FRES
12. W
    USU
13. L
    M-OH

Bars above the line: better than expected for Colorado State.

Players, 2024

1. Brayden Fowler-NicolosiQB282 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 111th of 232 QBs
   0.67WAR0.22 to 1.21
2. Avery MorrowRB156 plays · +0.119 pts/play · 63rd of 373 RBs
   0.35WAR0.24 to 0.47
3. Justin MarshallRB112 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 104th of 373 RBs
   0.27WAR0.18 to 0.34
4. Jordan NoyesPK13 plays · +0.330 pts/play · 57th of 114 kickers
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.11
5. Paddy TurnerP33 plays · +0.104 pts/play · 48th of 106 punters
   0.06WAR0.00 to 0.13
6. Tory HortonWR17 plays · +0.162 pts/play · 233rd of 452 WRs
   0.05WAR0.01 to 0.09
7. Jamari PersonWR26 plays · +0.045 pts/play · 325th of 452 WRs
   0.02WAR−0.02 to 0.06
8. Vince Brown IITE20 plays · +0.031 pts/play · 153rd of 221 TEs
   0.01WAR−0.03 to 0.05

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Colorado State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  54654697th of 131Roster talent: 546, 97th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16116175th of 131Recruiting: 161, 75th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  64%64%30th of 130Returning production: 64%, 30th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −5.7−5.791st of 131SP+ rating: −5.7, 91st of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Colorado State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.05 of the 0.16 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at NEVQ3 11:30 4th & 3 at NEV 3, up 17Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
2. vs UTEPQ4 12:04 4th & 3 at UTEP 45, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
3. vs M-OHQ2 2:32 4th & 1 at CSU 24, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
4. vs UTEPQ3 2:50 4th & 1 at CSU 34, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
5. vs WYOQ3 0:31 4th & 1 at CSU 21, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. vs UNCOQ3 10:24 4th & 1 at CSU 26, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. vs WYOQ4 6:10 4th & 1 at CSU 38, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. at AFQ1 2:05 4th & 1 at CSU 29, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

43rd of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Colorado State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   TEX
2. W

   UNCO
3. L

   COLO
4. W

   UTEP
5. L

   ORST
6. W

   SJSU
7. W

   AF
8. W

   UNM
9. W

   NEV
10. W

    WYO
11. L

    FRES
12. W

    USU
13. L

    M-OH

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Colorado State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.41
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock−0.24
• Timeouts+0.35
• Other+0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.12

Game by game

• TEXL 0-52 at TEX2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −3
• UNCOW 38-17 vs UNCO98% → 99%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +6
• COLOL 9-28 vs COLO29% → 2%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −38, Clock −1
• UTEPW 27-17 vs UTEP75% → 99%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +1
• ORSTL 31-39 at ORST29% → 74%Before kickoff −21 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts +23
• SJSUW 31-24 vs SJSU62% → 97%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts −3
• AFW 21-13 at AF75% → 99%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +24, Timeouts +8
• UNMW 17-6 vs UNM71% → 98%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +29, Timeouts +1
• NEVW 38-21 at NEV59% → 99%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +45, Timeouts +2
• WYOW 24-10 vs WYO76% → 99%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +27
• FRESL 22-28 at FRES40% → 5%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −35: Scoreboard −34, Timeouts +3
• USUW 42-37 vs USU69% → 1%Before kickoff +19 · On the field −69: Scoreboard −62, Clock −2
• M-OHL 17-43 vs M-OH46% → 0%Before kickoff −4 · On the field −46: Scoreboard −51, Possession & field position +1

Points of win probability, from Colorado State's side.

Closest call

USU 37-42 CSU (2024) - Colorado State dropped to a 0.7% win probability before pulling it out.