2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUNM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:59 · Bryan Hansen punt for 34 yds , Michael Buckley returns for 4 yds to the CSU 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:41: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 46 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- PUNT · Q2 9:11: Aaron Rodriguez punt for 46 yds , Kobe Johnson returns for 82 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:25: Jordan Noyes 47 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 11:52: Devon Dampier pass complete to Michael Buckley for 14 yds to the UNM 42 for a 1ST down — CSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 5:12: Avery Morrow run for 9 yds to the CSU 49 — CSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8UNM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 9:24CSU 4th & 9 at UNM 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snapGo for it61.2%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call61.2%51% to makePunt61.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:28CSU 4th & 6 at UNM 34, tiedClose callPunted · 61.2% before the snapGo for it61.2%40% to convertField goal61.1%−0.147% to makePuntTheir call60.9%−0.4average punt
- Q2 14:13UNM 4th & 4 at CSU 12, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snapGo for it40.7%45% to convertField goalTheir call40.6%−0.186% to makePunt37.7%−3.0average punt
- Q2 9:11UNM 4th & 14 at UNM 36, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snapGo for it34.7%−1.318% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.0%average punt
- Q2 4:40UNM 4th & 22 at CSU 40, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snapGo for it24.0%−0.78% to convertField goal24.7%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call24.7%average punt
- Q2 0:25CSU 4th & 2 at UNM 29, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snapGo for it77.3%−0.457% to convertField goalTheir call77.7%58% to makePunt74.7%−3.0average punt
- Q3 9:59CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 12, up 14Close callPunted · 84.0% before the snapGo for it85.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.8%−0.4average punt
- Q3 8:56UNM 4th & 1 at CSU 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.2%71% to convertField goal14.8%−2.549% to makePunt13.9%−3.3average punt
- Q3 6:22UNM 4th & 7 at CSU 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snapGo for it15.2%−0.436% to convertField goalTheir call15.6%62% to makePunt9.7%−5.9average punt
- Q3 4:37CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 24, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snapGo for it81.5%−1.825% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.3%average punt
- Q3 2:55UNM 4th & 3 at CSU 34, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.3%53% to convertField goal16.2%−1.147% to makePunt15.6%−1.7average punt
- Q3 1:40UNM 4th & 7 at CSU 26, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snapGo for it16.2%−0.336% to convertField goalTheir call16.4%64% to makePunt12.3%−4.1average punt
- Q4 14:15CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 45, up 11Close callPunted · 86.7% before the snapGo for it87.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.8%−0.4average punt
- Q4 10:22UNM 4th & 14 at UNM 46, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snapGo for it8.7%−0.918% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.6%average punt
- Q4 6:15CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 46, up 11Close callPunted · 92.7% before the snapGo for it92.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 2:00CSU 4th & 21 at UNM 35, up 11Close callPunted · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.0%−0.69% to convertField goal95.5%45% to makePuntTheir call95.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 1:00UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 46, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.8%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 12:41CSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.2%97% to makeGo for two63.2%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCSUDrive 1MISSED FG11 plays · 43 yds · 5:3671% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 7 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
71.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 4 yds to the UNM 40Similar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
71.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2FUMBLE6 plays · 44 yds · 1:3130% → 31%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
70.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 26 yds to the CSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
69.1%
(08:20) MAIAVA-PETERS, Sol-Jay rush up the middle for a gain of 11 yards to the CSU20 (WILSON, Chase), clock 08:18. PENALTY Before the snap, UNM Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the CSU31 to the CSU36. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+10
69.4%
(07:57) DAMPIER, Devon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WYSONG, Luke thrown to the CSU12; QB hurried by WA-KALONJI, Mukendi, clock 07:51. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on HOWELL, Jack enforced 10 yards to the CSU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
68.9%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 2 yds to the CSU 24 Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters fumbled, recovered by CSU Mukendi Wa-Kalonji M. Wa-Kalonji return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 42 yds · 4:2070% → 69%
UNMDrive 4FG12 plays · 76 yds · 4:1531% → 35%
CSUDrive 5TD4 plays · 79 yds · 1:2766% → 71%
UNMDrive 6PUNT RETURN TD7 plays · 11 yds · 3:3030% → 23%
Q2 12:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
69.7%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 5 yds to the UNM 32Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-5
68.2%
New Mexico Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Devon Dampier) to the UNM 40Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-4
69.5%
Devon Dampier sacked by Kennedy McDowell for a loss of 4 yards to the UNM 36Similar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+82
77.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 46 yds , Kobe Johnson returns for 82 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT13 plays · 35 yds · 4:3124% → 20%
Q2 8:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
76.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Eli Sanders for 5 yds to the UNM 33Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
76.8%
Colorado State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jack Howell) to the CSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
74.8%
(06:23) DAMPIER, Devon pass short to the left complete for 5 yards to DAVIS, Ryan caught at the CSU23 and advanced to the CSU23 (ESSISSIMA, Isaiah), clock 06:22. PENALTY UNM Face mask on OWENS, Lajuan enforced 15 yards from the CSU28 to the CSU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 25
OPP 43
+7
76.4%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the CSU 36Similar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 17
OPP 35
-5
79.7%
New Mexico Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Noah Avinger) to the CSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8FG11 plays · 51 yds · 4:0879% → 84%
UNMDrive 9END OF HALF1 play · 3 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10FUMBLE8 plays · 71 yds · 2:5116% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
84.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Eli Sanders for 27 yds to the CSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
82.8%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Michael Buckley for 9 yds to the CSU 39Similar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+30
82.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 30 yds to the CSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
83.5%
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds to the CSU 4 Devon Dampier fumbled, recovered by CSU Henry Blackburn H. Blackburn return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0386% → 86%
Q3 10:45
3RD & 1
OWN 13
-1
86.3%
Devon Dampier run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 12 Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi fumbled, recovered by CSU Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi B. Fowler-Nicolosi return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 2
OWN 12
+4
86.4%
Bryan Hansen punt for 34 yds , Michael Buckley returns for 4 yds to the CSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12FG10 plays · 15 yds · 3:3716% → 18%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
84.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the CSU 36Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 4
OPP 36
-10
84.3%
(09:34) QB Keeper DAMPIER, Devon rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the CSU30 (AGURS, Kenyon;WILSON, Chase), clock 09:29. PENALTY UNM Holding on SILLEMON, Isaiah enforced 10 yards from the CSU36 to the CSU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+13
86.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 13 yds to the CSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4785% → 84%
Q3 4:47
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
84.3%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (James Mitchell) to the CSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14MISSED FG11 plays · 32 yds · 2:5217% → 15%
Q3 3:47
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+10
83.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Michael Buckley for 10 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2187% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16PUNT15 plays · 45 yds · 3:4113% → 9%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
87.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Eli Sanders for 4 yds to the UNM 5Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+6
87.4%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 6 yds to the UNM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+19
87.2%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 19 yds Ryan Davis fumbled, recovered by UNM Ryan Davis R. Davis return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
86.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the UNM 36Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-5
85.5%
Devon Dampier run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNM 28 Devon Dampier fumbled, recovered by UNM Devon DampierSimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+14
88.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Michael Buckley for 14 yds to the UNM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+5
86.4%
(10:56) DAMPIER, Devon pass to the right incomplete intended for BUCKLEY, Michael thrown to the CSU48, clock 10:52. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on HECTOR, Ayden enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the UNM50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 3:5891% → 94%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
91.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 3 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-15
91.8%
Colorado State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Drew Moss) to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
93.8%
Bryan Hansen punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Michael Buckley at the UNM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18INT4 plays · 41 yds · 0:487% → 9%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
93.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Michael Buckley for 12 yds to the UNM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
92.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 23 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
91.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Eli Sanders for 6 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-10
91.1%
Devon Dampier pass intercepted Buom Jock return for 10 yds to the CSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT11 plays · 25 yds · 3:1295% → 98%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
95.8%
(03:45) MORROW, Avery rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the UNM18 (ELLIS, Christian;JOHNSON, Dimitri), clock 03:42. PENALTY CSU Holding on MOSS, Drew enforced 10 yards from the UNM24 to the UNM34. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 17
OPP 31
+1
97.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 1 yd to the UNM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20INT7 plays · 45 yds · 0:552% → 3%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+18
97.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Michael Buckley for 18 yds to the UNM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
97.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Michael Buckley for 12 yds to the UNM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+9
97.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the UNM 46Similar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
97.0%
Devon Dampier pass intercepted Chase Wilson return for no gain to the CSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21END OF GAME1 play · 4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q2 9:11
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 46 yds , Kobe Johnson returns for 82 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
+7.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:12
Avery Morrow run for 9 yds to the CSU 49
+3.7
TD · Q2 12:41
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 46 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
+3.5