2024 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2024 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:37 · Vince Brown II 26 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:09: Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 2 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK) — USU win probability +4.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 7:55: Tanner Cragun 26 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +2.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:19: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 28 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +12.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:07: Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 14 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK) — USU win probability +17.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:49: Jaiden Francois 40 Yd Interception Return (Tanner Cragun Kick) — USU win probability +8.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 11:53CSU 4th & 13 at USU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snapGo for it65.0%−0.121% to convertField goal65.0%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call65.1%average punt
- Q1 9:43USU 4th & 3 at CSU 27, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snapGo for it35.3%52% to convertField goalTheir call35.2%−0.162% to makePunt34.7%−0.6average punt
- Q1 8:19CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snapGo for it64.4%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.6%average punt
- Q1 4:27CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 12, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snapGo for it61.3%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.3%average punt
- Q2 12:44CSU 4th & 4 at USU 30, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.0%48% to convertField goal52.6%−0.456% to makePunt51.9%−1.2average punt
- Q2 10:28CSU 4th & 6 at USU 15, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snapGo for it50.5%−0.237% to convertField goalTheir call50.8%83% to makePunt47.2%−3.6average punt
- Q2 7:55USU 4th & 5 at CSU 9, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snapGo for it50.5%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call50.5%89% to makePunt47.5%−3.0average punt
- Q2 1:44CSU 4th & 15 at USU 22, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snapGo for it38.8%−1.316% to convertField goalTheir call40.1%72% to makePunt36.7%−3.4average punt
- Q2 1:10USU 4th & 19 at USU 16, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snapGo for it51.4%−3.110% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.5%average punt
- Q3 14:32USU 4th & 21 at USU 14, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snapGo for it40.1%−4.38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.4%average punt
- Q3 10:56CSU 4th & 4 at USU 22, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snapGo for it55.0%47% to convertField goalTheir call54.6%−0.472% to makePunt45.9%−9.1average punt
- Q3 8:51USU 4th & 9 at USU 36, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snapGo for it46.3%−2.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.5%average punt
- Q3 7:18CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 16, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snapGo for it49.9%−0.447% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.3%average punt
- Q4 7:23CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 27, down 18Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.0%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.2%average punt
- Q4 1:57USU 4th & 10 at USU 25, up 18Close callWent for it · 98.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.4%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.7%average punt
- Q4 1:37CSU 4th & 2 at USU 26, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.0%57% to convertField goal1.9%−<0.164% to makePunt1.2%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 6:17USU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick37.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call37.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:09USU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.4%97% to makeGo for two44.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:19CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.8%97% to makeGo for two54.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:07USU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.5%97% to makeGo for two72.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:49USU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.8%97% to makeGo for two83.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCSUDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 3:0769% → 69%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
69.3%
Utah State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Gabriel Iniguez Jr.) to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+3
69.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 3 yds to the USU 36Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 8
OPP 36
-5
69.1%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Saveyon Henderson) to the USU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2MISSED FG6 plays · 67 yds · 2:0231% → 32%
Q1 11:24
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+51
68.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 51 yds to the CSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2469% → 68%
Q1 8:19
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+43
68.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 43 yds , Kahanu Davis returns for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4TD6 plays · 76 yds · 2:0232% → 34%
CSUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5066% → 65%
USUDrive 6TD7 plays · 43 yds · 2:1336% → 42%
Q1 3:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
63.1%
(03:12) BARNES, Bryson pass to the right incomplete intended for TIA, Otto broken up by PHELPS, Dylan at the CSU0, clock 03:07. PENALTY Before the snap, CSU Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the CSU7 to the CSU3. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-95
63.1%
(03:09) FAISON, Rahsul rush up the middle for a loss of 95 yards to the CSU3 (GATKUOTH, Nuer), clock 03:01. PENALTY CSU Holding on PRENDERGAST, Will USU Personal Foul on MAILE, George , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 2 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7FG14 plays · 60 yds · 6:4160% → 56%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
59.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 13 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+7
58.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Peter Montini for 7 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
58.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 11 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+8
57.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 8 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+11
56.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 11 yds to the USU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+4
55.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 4 yds fumbled, forced by Chase Davis, recovered by CSU Donovan OllieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8FG7 plays · 66 yds · 2:3044% → 50%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
54.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 5 yds to the USU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FG16 plays · 56 yds · 6:0550% → 45%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
50.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 9 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
49.7%
(06:45) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass to the left complete for 8 yards to PERSON, Jamari caught at the CSU41 and advanced to the CSU43 (GRAHAM II, DJ), clock 06:40. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on WINFIELD, Armani enforced 15 yards to the CSU20 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+4
48.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 4 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+15
45.6%
Utah State Penalty, Personal Foul (D.J. Graham II) to the USU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
48.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 9 yds to the USU 40Similar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
47.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 2 yds to the USU 37Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+20
46.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 20 yds to the USU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 0:3454% → 53%
CSUDrive 11TD9 plays · 54 yds · 0:4646% → 60%
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+19
45.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 19 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
48.2%
(00:58) MORROW, Avery rush to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the USU24 (GRAHAM II, DJ;LARSEN, Ike), clock 00:54. PENALTY CSU Holding on MOSS, Drew enforced 10 yards from the USU35 to the USU45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 20
OPP 45
-10
45.8%
Colorado State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Avery Morrow) to the USU 48Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 23
OPP 48
+5
45.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 5 yds to the USU 43Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 18
OPP 43
+15
44.7%
(00:39) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden sacked for a loss of 9 yards at the CSU48 (SLONE, Cian), clock 00:32. PENALTY USU Personal Foul on DEAN, Marlin enforced 15 yards from the USU43 to the USU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+28
59.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 28 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
55.7%
(00:13) [NH] Kneel down by BARNES, Bryson at USU22 (team loss of 1), clock 00:08.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 0:3044% → 42%
CSUDrive 14MISSED FG7 plays · 41 yds · 3:2459% → 58%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
58.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 5 yds to the CSU 42Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-5
60.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for a loss of 5 yards to the CSU 37Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+35
56.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 35 yds to the USU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 2:0145% → 45%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
55.2%
Colorado State Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
54.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 2 yds to the USU 37Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-5
53.8%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Will Prendergast for a loss of 5 yards to the USU 32Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+4
54.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Kyrese White for 4 yds to the USU 36Similar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+44
54.8%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 44 yds , Armani Winfield returns for no gain to the CSU 10 , returns for no gain to the CSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2455% → 52%
Q3 8:01
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+3
54.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 3 yds to the CSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17TD15 plays · 79 yds · 5:5948% → 75%
CSUDrive 18INT TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1917% → 11%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
16.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 39 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 27
-9
14.5%
Colorado State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Armani Winfield) to the USU 36Similar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+15
12.1%
(14:17) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for OLSON, Dane thrown to the USU5, clock 14:14. PENALTY USU Pass Interference on VINCENT, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the USU17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
10.8%
Vince Brown II 12 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi Pass to Jamari Person for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20FUMBLE16 plays · 50 yds · 5:2093% → 96%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
6.7%
Utah State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Teague Andersen) to the USU 21Similar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 14
OWN 21
+15
6.7%
Colorado State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chase Wilson) to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-10
3.8%
(08:25) TURNER, Herschel rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the CSU16 (HECTOR, Ayden;AGURS, Kenyon), clock 08:24. PENALTY USU Holding on BOWLES, Wyatt enforced 10 yards from the CSU17 to the CSU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+2
3.8%
Herschel Turner run for 2 yds to the CSU 26 Herschel Turner fumbled, recovered by CSU Buom Jock B. Jock return for 1 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21TD7 plays · 74 yds · 1:565% → 5%
Q4 7:23
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+29
4.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 29 yds to the USU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
5.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tommy Maher for 5 yds to the USU 39Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+17
5.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 17 yds to the USU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
4.9%
Jordan Ross 22 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22INT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4797% → 98%
Q4 5:25
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+7
2.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 7 yds to the USU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
2.3%
(04:53) FAISON, Rahsul rush to the right for no gain to the USU25 (JONES, Dom), out of bounds, clock 04:46. PENALTY USU Holding on BOWLES, Wyatt enforced 10 yards from the USU25 to the USU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-3
2.2%
Bryson Barnes pass intercepted Dominic Morris return for 3 yds to the USU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23TD3 plays · 19 yds · 1:253% → 3%
USUDrive 24DOWNS6 plays · 9 yds · 0:3598% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25TD8 plays · 34 yds · 0:192% → 2%
Q4 1:37
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+26
1.8%
Vince Brown II 26 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26TD11 plays · 75 yds · 1:1999% → 98%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
0.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 9 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+20
0.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Grant Page for 20 yds to the CSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
2.2%
(00:21) BARNES, Bryson pass short to the right incomplete intended for WHITE, Kyrese thrown to the CSU0, clock 00:19. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on HOWELL, Jack enforced 1 yards to the CSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
50
0
2.2%
Bryson Barnes pass intercepted Dom Jones return for no gain to the CSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER1 play · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
0.7%
(00:07) Kneel down by POOLER, Giles at CSU30 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+99.3
TD · Q3 1:07
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 14 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK)
-17.1
TD · Q2 0:19
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 28 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
+12.5