Try the model
UTEP

UTEP 17 at Colorado State 27

CSU
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Canvas Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUTEP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:26 · (00:26) Kneel down by FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden at UTEP36 (team loss of 2), clock 00:21.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 6:12: Buzz Flabiano 45 yd FG GOOD — UTEP win probability +2.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: 4th down).
  2. TD · Q2 5:24: Avery Morrow run for 73 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:54: B. Fowler-Nicolosi pass to A. Winfield for 5 yds for a TD (J. Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:26: C. McConnell pass to K. Odom for 28 yds for a TD (B. Flabiano KICK) — UTEP win probability +8.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:51: C. McConnell pass to K. Odom for 55 yds for a TD (B. Flabiano KICK) — UTEP win probability +11.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10UTEP made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:58CSU 4th & 1 at UTEP 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    71.7%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:52UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:32CSU 4th & 3 at UTEP 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    73.5%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:50UTEP 4th & 3 at CSU 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:06CSU 4th & 14 at CSU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:53UTEP 4th & 6 at CSU 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:56CSU 4th & 1 at UTEP 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    72.7%−2.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:12UTEP 4th & 9 at CSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:27UTEP 4th & 13 at UTEP 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:54CSU 4th & 5 at UTEP 46, up 11
    Close callPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:53UTEP 4th & 24 at UTEP 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:17UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 29, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:32CSU 4th & 8 at UTEP 19, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−3.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:50CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 34, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:04CSU 4th & 3 at UTEP 45, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−3.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:18UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.2%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:19CSU 4th & 1 at UTEP 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−1.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    89.5%−2.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:32CSU 4th & 3 at UTEP 21, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−2.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:10UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTEP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:52CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:24CSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:54CSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:26UTEP Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:51UTEP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:0675% → 76%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
75.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 8 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
75.1%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
75.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
75.0%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
74.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
50
+36
74.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 36 yds to the UTEP 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
75.0%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 16Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+9
74.9%
Justin Marshall run for 9 yds to the UTEP 7Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
74.7%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the UTEP 5Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+1
74.4%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the UTEP 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
74.7%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the UTEP 2Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.1%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0024% → 24%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.6%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 5 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
75.5%
Jevon Jackson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 31Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
75.7%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
75.9%
Adam Jacklin punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · 32 yds · 2:1476% → 76%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+25
75.6%
Caleb Goodie run for 25 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
76.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 2 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+1
76.3%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the UTEP 40Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+4
76.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justin Marshall for 4 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q1 5:32
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
75.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4225% → 25%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
75.3%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kam Thomas for 3 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+11
75.5%
Skyler Locklear run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
50
0
74.8%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 10
50
+9
75.1%
Jevon Jackson run for 9 yds to the CSU 41Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
75.3%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-2
74.8%
Skyler Locklear sacked by Ayden Hector and James Mitchell for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 43Similar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
75.1%
Adam Jacklin punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Lavon Brown at the CSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4476% → 75%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
75.8%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-1
75.8%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 23Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-7
75.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Lantz Russell for a loss of 7 yards to the CSU 16Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+24
74.8%
Paddy Turner punt for 24 yds , Nate Dyman returns for no gain to the CSU 44 , returns for no gain to the CSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0526% → 25%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
74.2%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
74.3%
Jevon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 45Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+5
74.9%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 5 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
74.8%
Adam Jacklin punt for 39 yds, downed at the CSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:5675% → 76%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
75.4%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the CSU 5Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+20
75.3%
Avery Morrow run for 20 yds to the CSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.8%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
75.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 11 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
76.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 11 yds to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
77.0%
Kobe Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 47Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+6
76.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 6 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+5
76.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 5 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
76.2%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the UTEP 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8INT
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:1926% → 28%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
74.5%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
74.7%
Skyler Locklear run for 1 yd to the UTEP 43Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+9
74.9%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 9 yds to the CSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
73.8%
Jevon Jackson run for 2 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+32
73.7%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kam Thomas for 32 yds to the CSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
72.6%
Jevon Jackson run for 1 yd to the CSU 13Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
72.5%
Skyler Locklear pass intercepted Henry Blackburn return for no gain to the CSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:3676% → 75%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
75.5%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 12Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 11
OWN 12
0
75.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 11
OWN 12
0
75.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass intercepted AJ Odums return for no gain to the CSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2827% → 28%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
72.8%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Jaden Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 29Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+2
73.2%
Jevon Jackson run for 2 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
74.9%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
72.4%
Buzz Flabiano 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:4473% → 81%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
73.3%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+73
80.5%
Avery Morrow run for 73 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:5020% → 18%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
80.0%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 3 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-1
81.2%
Skyler Locklear run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 19Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 8
OWN 19
-5
81.9%
Skyler Locklear sacked by Mukendi Wa-Kalonji and Cam Bariteau for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 14Similar
Q2 3:27
4TH & 13
OWN 14
+1
82.5%
Adam Jacklin punt for 38 yds , Lavon Brown returns for 1 yd to the CSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2782% → 84%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
82.2%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+1
82.7%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the UTEP 46Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
84.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
83.8%
Paddy Turner punt for 35 yds, downed at the UTEP 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4418% → 17%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
82.2%
Jevon Jackson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 12Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+10
82.6%
Jevon Jackson run for 10 yds to the UTEP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
82.7%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
83.0%
Jevon Jackson run for 6 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+1
82.7%
Skyler Locklear run for 1 yd to the UTEP 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0718% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
82.1%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jaden Smith for 12 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
81.7%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
81.8%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kenny Odom for 15 yds to the CSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
80.7%
Cade McConnell run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 48 Cade McConnell fumbled, recovered by UTEP Jevon Jackson J. Jackson return for 1 ydsSimilar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-10
81.9%
Cade McConnell sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the UTEP 38 Cade McConnell fumbled, recovered by UTEP Cade McConnell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 24
OWN 38
0
82.8%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 24
OWN 38
0
83.5%
punt blocked by Dane Olson blocked by Dane Olson (12:53) Punt by JACKLIN, Adam at the UTEP38 is blocked by OLSON, Dane, recovered by CSU LONG, Owen at the UTEP7, returned 0 yards to the UTEP7, End of Play, clock 12:47. , returns for no gain to the UTEP 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:5185% → 93%
Q3 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
84.5%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the UTEP 5Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
84.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.8%
B. Fowler-Nicolosi pass to A. Winfield for 5 yds for a TD (J. Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:379% → 9%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.2%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.3%
Jevon Jackson run for 4 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
91.2%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
91.5%
Adam Jacklin punt for 32 yds, downed at the CSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:4094% → 96%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
94.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
94.4%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Drew Moss) to the CSU 34Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+6
94.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 6 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+16
94.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 16 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
95.0%
Justin Marshall run for 23 yds to the UTEP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
95.1%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds to the UTEP 16Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-3
95.3%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 19Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
95.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+37
95.8%
Jordan Noyes 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:554% → 13%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.8%
Corey Wren run for 1 yd to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-15
95.9%
(07:05) MCCONNELL, Cade pass short to the right complete for 15 yards to GOODMAN, Trey caught at the UTEP31 and advanced to the UTEP41 (KIRSCHKE, Gabe), clock 07:03. PENALTY UTEP Face mask on HENRY, Azizi enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the UTEP26 to the UTEP13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+5
96.1%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kam Thomas for 5 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+29
96.2%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Ashton Nickelberry for 29 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
96.1%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Emari White for 7 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+15
95.9%
(05:13) MCCONNELL, Cade pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ODOM, Kenny broken up by BLACKBURN, Henry at the CSU13; QB hurried by KIRSCHKE, Gabe, clock 05:10. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on GARDNER, Jaylen enforced 15 yards to the CSU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
95.7%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kam Thomas for 3 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
96.1%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+28
87.5%
C. McConnell pass to K. Odom for 28 yds for a TD (B. Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3389% → 89%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.4%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
89.6%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
89.4%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the CSU 34Similar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
89.2%
Paddy Turner punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 2:4910% → 23%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
89.9%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+11
90.1%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kenny Odom for 11 yds to the UTEP 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
89.4%
Cade McConnell run for 7 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+6
88.3%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Emari White for 6 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
88.7%
Corey Wren run for 5 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
88.8%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+8
89.0%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jaden Smith for 8 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
88.5%
Corey Wren run for no gain to the UTEP 45Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+55
77.4%
C. McConnell pass to K. Odom for 55 yds for a TD (B. Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:4184% → 86%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
84.4%
Avery Morrow run for 18 yds to the CSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
86.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 9 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-5
86.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Bryton Thompson for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 48Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+3
86.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 3 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
85.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kam Thomas at the UTEP 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 41 yds · 4:4419% → 13%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
81.0%
Corey Wren run for 7 yds to the UTEP 15Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 3
OWN 15
0
80.9%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+18
82.0%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jaden Smith for 18 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
79.6%
Corey Wren run for 6 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
77.8%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kam Thomas for no gain to the UTEP 39Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+5
81.8%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Trey Goodman for 5 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
80.9%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jaden Smith for 7 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
78.8%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jaden Smith for 2 yds to the CSU 47Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-4
80.5%
Cade McConnell run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 49Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
87.4%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24FG
14 plays · 28 yds · 5:4395% → 99%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
94.6%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the UTEP 48Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+9
94.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 9 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
94.9%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 43Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+13
95.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 13 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
95.3%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the UTEP 30Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
96.2%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the UTEP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
97.1%
Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-5
97.6%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 27Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-6
97.8%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 33Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+5
97.9%
(02:00) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass to the left intercepted by ALLEN, Josiah at the UTEP33 intended for WINFIELD, Armani. Allen return for 67 yards to the CSU0, End of Play, clock 01:53. PENALTY UTEP Offsides on TAFUNA, Tevita enforced 5 yards from the UTEP33 to the UTEP28 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+7
97.8%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the UTEP 21Similar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
98.6%
Jordan Noyes 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:153% → 3%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
97.1%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kam Thomas for 3 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
97.1%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+6
97.3%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Trey Goodman for 6 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
97.3%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Marcus Vinson for no gain to the UTEP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:3999% → 99%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
98.9%
(01:05) Kneel down by FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden at UTEP34 (team loss of 2), clock 00:57.Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 12
OPP 34
-2
98.9%
(00:26) Kneel down by FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden at UTEP36 (team loss of 2), clock 00:21.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:51
C. McConnell pass to K. Odom for 55 yds for a TD (B. Flabiano KICK)
-11
TD · Q3 4:26
C. McConnell pass to K. Odom for 28 yds for a TD (B. Flabiano KICK)
-8.6
TD · Q3 11:54
B. Fowler-Nicolosi pass to A. Winfield for 5 yds for a TD (J. Noyes KICK)
+8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com