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M-OH

Miami (OH) 43 at Colorado State 17

CSU
2024 · Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl · Dec 28, 2024 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:17 · Justin Marshall run for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Pregame prior−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:12: Dom Dzioban 24 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +6.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:35: Kevin Davis run for 4 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK) — M-OH win probability +11.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:26: Brett Gabbert run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — M-OH win probability +10.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:46: Kevin Davis run for 97 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK) — M-OH win probability +13.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:13: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Stephon Daily for 56 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +10.7 pts (now 13%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8M-OH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:15CSU 4th & 3 at M-OH 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.9%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:07M-OH 4th & 18 at M-OH 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:35M-OH 4th & 6 at CSU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:09CSU 4th & 18 at CSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:08M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:08M-OH 4th & 7 at CSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:17CSU 4th & 1 at M-OH 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.1%−1.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:09M-OH 4th & 13 at CSU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:32CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 24, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:12M-OH 4th & 3 at CSU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−1.0
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−5.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:00CSU 4th & 4 at M-OH 5, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    16.4%−0.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−10.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:13CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 44, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:14CSU 4th & 12 at CSU 36, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:25M-OH 4th & 4 at CSU 23, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:10CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 49, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q3 12:35M-OH Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:26M-OH Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:46M-OH Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:13CSU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:30M-OH Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:02CSU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:16M-OH Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 6:4046% → 49%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
46.4%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 21Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
46.4%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the CSU 23Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+12
46.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 12 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
46.8%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the CSU 38Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
47.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 8 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
47.4%
Avery Morrow run for 12 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
47.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Tommy MaherSimilar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
47.7%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the M-OH 38Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+30
47.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 30 yds to the M-OH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
48.3%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the M-OH 4Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
48.6%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the M-OH 3Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
48.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Jordan RossSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
48.9%
Jordan Noyes 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0251% → 50%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
48.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Braylon Isom for 17 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
48.3%
Keyon Mozee run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 40Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
48.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Kam PerrySimilar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 12
OWN 40
-5
49.3%
Miami (OH) Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the M-OH 35Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 17
OWN 35
-1
49.7%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Mukendi Wa-Kalonji and Gabe Kirschke for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 34Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 18
OWN 34
+5
50.1%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 47 yds , Kobe Johnson returns for 5 yds to the CSU 39 Colorado State Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the CSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:4749% → 49%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
49.0%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the CSU 17Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
49.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Armani WinfieldSimilar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+17
48.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 17 yds Avery Morrow fumbled, forced by Ambe' Caldwell, recovered by M-OH Ty WiseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:3452% → 52%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
48.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 14 yds to the CSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
48.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack ColdironSimilar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
48.3%
Keyon Mozee run for 4 yds to the CSU 16Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
48.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Kevin DavisSimilar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
48.0%
Dom Dzioban 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5FUMBLE
7 plays · -8 yds · 1:2049% → 48%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.6%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
48.8%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CSU 22Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
48.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Tommy MaherSimilar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
48.3%
Colorado State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the CSU 17Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
48.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Dane OlsonSimilar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 18
OWN 17
-8
48.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 39 yds , Cade McDonald returns for a loss of 8 yards to the M-OH 36 Cade McDonald fumbled, recovered by M-OHSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5552% → 51%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
47.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 4 yds to the M-OH 40Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
47.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Cole WeaverSimilar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
47.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Cole WeaverSimilar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+8
48.7%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 49 yds , Kobe Johnson returns for 8 yds to the CSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
49.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass intercepted Adam Trick return for 5 yds to the CSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4954% → 53%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
46.1%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the CSU 8Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
46.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Braylon IsomSimilar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
46.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Kevin DavisSimilar
Q1 0:08
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
46.9%
Dom Dzioban 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:4447% → 48%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
46.7%
Ross, Jordan rush for loss of 1 yard to the COLORADOST24, PENALTY M-OH face mask (Walters, Silas) 15 yards to the COLORADOST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADOST.Similar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
48.1%
Justin Marshall run for 26 yds to the M-OH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
49.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 7 yds to the M-OH 27Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-10
49.5%
Marshall, Justin rush for 4 yards to the M-OH23, PENALTY COLORADOST holding (Henderson, Saveyon) 10 yards to the M-OH37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 13
OPP 37
0
48.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Donovan OllieSimilar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 13
OPP 37
+12
47.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 12 yds to the M-OH 25Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 1
OPP 25
-3
48.0%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT
15 plays · 31 yds · 5:0354% → 53%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
46.3%
Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the M-OH 28Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+10
46.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 10 yds to the M-OH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
45.6%
Mozee, Keyon rush for 1 yard to the M-OH39, PENALTY COLORADOST 12 men on the field 5 yards to the M-OH43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 5
OWN 43
0
45.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Cole WeaverSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+8
45.3%
Keyon Mozee run for 8 yds to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
44.8%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Henry Blackburn and Gabe Kirschke for a loss of 5 yards to the M-OH 46Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+14
46.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cole Weaver for 14 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
44.3%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
43.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Cade McDonaldSimilar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
43.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Cade McDonaldSimilar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+7
43.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Josh Ringer for 7 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 3
OPP 31
-5
45.3%
Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (Reid Holskey) to the CSU 36Similar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 8
OPP 36
-5
45.4%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the CSU 41Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
46.7%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kobe Johnson at the CSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 4:3145% → 43%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
45.3%
Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the CSU 10Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 4
OWN 10
-5
45.4%
Morrow, Avery rush for 7 yards to the COLORADOST17, PENALTY COLORADOST holding (Montini, Peter) 5 yards to the COLORADOST5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+1
45.2%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 6Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+9
44.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 9 yds to the CSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
45.3%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 11Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+12
45.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 12 yds to the CSU 23Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
44.6%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 24Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
43.4%
Paddy Turner punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 2:1558% → 65%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
42.4%
Brett Gabbert run for 4 yds to the M-OH 43Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+10
41.8%
Kevin Davis run for 10 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
40.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 6 yds to the CSU 41Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+14
40.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 14 yds to the CSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
38.7%
Kevin Davis run for 14 yds to the CSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
38.6%
Kevin Davis run for no gain to the CSU 13Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
38.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Braylon IsomSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+7
40.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 7 yds to the CSU 6Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
34.9%
Dom Dzioban 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
38.3%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the CSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1962% → 77%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
38.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kam Perry for 17 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
36.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 1 yd to the M-OH 43Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+40
35.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kam Perry for 40 yds to the CSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
34.8%
Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the CSU 13Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+9
34.4%
Kevin Davis run for 9 yds to the CSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.3%
Kevin Davis run for 4 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:0829% → 29%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Jordan RossSimilar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
28.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 22 yds Vince Brown II fumbled, forced by Matt Salopek, recovered by M-OH Silas WaltersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:5477% → 89%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
23.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Kam PerrySimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
23.7%
Kevin Davis run for 6 yds to the CSU 41Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+9
23.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 9 yds to the CSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
21.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 22 yds to the CSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
11.0%
Brett Gabbert run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 72 yds · 3:2117% → 17%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
17.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Stephon Daily for 9 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
18.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 9 yds to the CSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
18.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Stephon Daily for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 3
50
+11
18.3%
Justin Marshall run for 11 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
18.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Donovan OllieSimilar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
17.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Stephon DailySimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+28
17.5%
Justin Marshall run for 28 yds to the M-OH 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
18.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Armani WinfieldSimilar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+6
18.1%
Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the M-OH 5Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
17.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Vince Brown IISimilar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+2
17.0%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the M-OH 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18TD
1 play · 97 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+97
3.2%
Kevin Davis run for 97 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:272% → 13%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
2.1%
Jalen Dupree run for 6 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
1.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 3 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
2.0%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
1.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
1.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 8 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
1.8%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the CSU 44Similar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+56
12.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Stephon Daily for 56 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0295% → 95%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
5.3%
Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (Reid Holskey) to the CSU 20Similar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+2
5.4%
Josh Ringer run for 2 yds to the CSU 18Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 13
OPP 18
-5
5.2%
Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CSU 23Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 18
OPP 23
0
5.0%
Josh Ringer run for no gain to the CSU 23 Josh Ringer fumbled, forced by Ayden Hector, recovered by CSU Ayden HectorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21INT
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:5210% → 10%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
10.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 12 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
10.0%
Justin Marshall run for 14 yds to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
10.2%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the M-OH 49Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-54
9.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass intercepted Ty Wise return for 54 yds to the CSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:2696% → 99%
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
4.3%
Jordan Brunson run for 1 yd to the CSU 4Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
4.1%
Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds to the CSU 2Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.1%
Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23FUMBLE
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:091% → 1%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
1.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Tommy MaherSimilar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
1.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justin Marshall for 13 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-10
0.8%
Marshall, Justin rush for 22 yards to the M-OH40, PENALTY COLORADOST holding 10 yards to the COLORADOST28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+8
0.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 8 yds to the CSU 36Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
0.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 12
OWN 36
-4
0.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 38 yds , Cade McDonald returns for a loss of 4 yards to the M-OH 22 Cade McDonald fumbled, recovered by CSU Henry BlackburnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:081% → 6%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
0.7%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 23Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 11
OPP 23
0
0.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+22
0.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 22 yds to the M-OH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.6%
Peter Montini run for no gain to the M-OH 1Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.1%
Peter Montini run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25TD
12 plays · 40 yds · 6:4397% → 100%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
2.6%
Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the CSU 36Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+2
2.5%
Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+5
2.4%
Jordan Brunson run for 5 yds to the CSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
2.2%
Jordan Brunson run for 4 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+5
1.9%
Jordan Brunson run for 5 yds to the CSU 20Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 1
OPP 20
-3
1.6%
Jordan Brunson run for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 23Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+12
1.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Brian Shane for 12 yds to the CSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
1.4%
Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds to the CSU 9Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+2
1.2%
Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds to the CSU 7Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-5
1.2%
Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CSU 12Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+12
0.2%
Jordan Brunson run for 12 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26END OF GAME
11 plays · 56 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.2%
Avery Morrow run for 11 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.2%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the CSU 36Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
0.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+11
0.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 11 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
0.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
0.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Stephon Daily for 2 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
0.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Jordan RossSimilar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 8
OWN 49
+34
0.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tommy Maher for 34 yds to the M-OH 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
0.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:46
Kevin Davis run for 97 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
-13.7
TD · Q3 12:35
Kevin Davis run for 4 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q3 3:13
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Stephon Daily for 56 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com