Colorado State

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense−0.0112th
  Defense+0.1348th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense33.2%4th
  Defense38.3%83rd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.4496th
  Defense+1.3717th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.0319th
  Defense−0.0383rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense0.0017th
  Defense+0.3217th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense39.7%5th
  Defense41.9%90th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense22.1%5th
  Defense32.4%52nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.243rd
  Defense2.1099th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense26.6%3rd
  Defense28.3%99th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense20.6%5th
  Defense18.9%83rd

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Colorado State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   FRES
2. W
   WYO
3. L
   BOIS
4. L
   SDSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Colorado State.

Players, 2020

1. Patrick O'BrienQB78 plays · +0.134 pts/play · 128th of 212 QBs
   0.20WAR0.07 to 0.33
2. Dante WrightWR37 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 122nd of 409 WRs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.15
3. Todd CenteioQB40 plays · +0.124 pts/play · 166th of 212 QBs
   0.09WAR0.03 to 0.16
4. Marcus McElroy Jr.RB26 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 261st of 338 RBs
   0.08WAR0.06 to 0.11
5. Trey McBrideTE22 plays · +0.108 pts/play · 19th of 191 TEs
   0.04WAR0.00 to 0.08
6. Ryan StonehouseP21 plays · +0.094 pts/play · 31st of 77 punters
   0.04WAR0.01 to 0.07
7. Nate Craig-MyersWR5 plays · +0.121 pts/play · 382nd of 409 WRs
   0.01WAR0.01 to 0.02

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Colorado State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  44744786th of 127Roster talent: 447, 86th of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15215280th of 127Recruiting: 152, 80th of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  77%77%34th of 127Returning production: 77%, 34th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −6.5−6.594th of 127SP+ rating: −6.5, 94th of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Colorado State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.03 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WYOQ4 13:33 4th & 1 at CSU 11, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
2. at FRESQ3 14:03 4th & 2 at CSU 49, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
3. at BOISQ3 7:06 4th & 1 at CSU 24, down 24Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
4. at FRESQ1 4:07 4th & 3 at FRES 6, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
5. at FRESQ4 7:53 4th & 4 at FRES 12, down 28Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.1 pts
6. at SDSUQ1 15:00 4th & 2 at CSU 30, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
7. at BOISQ4 14:48 4th & 1 at CSU 21, down 31Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
8. at FRESQ4 1:56 4th & 4 at FRES 30, down 28Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

85th of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Colorado State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   FRES
2. W

   WYO
3. L

   BOIS
4. L

   SDSU

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Colorado State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.61
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.11

Game by game

• FRESL 17-38 at FRES59% → 0%Before kickoff +9 · On the field −59: Scoreboard −52, Timeouts +1
• WYOW 34-24 vs WYO40% → 97%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts +2
• BOISL 21-52 at BOIS16% → 0%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −19
• SDSUL 17-29 at SDSU31% → 2%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −30, Timeouts −1

Points of win probability, from Colorado State's side.

Closest call

USU 37-42 CSU (2024) - Colorado State dropped to a 0.7% win probability before pulling it out.