Colorado State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.3296th
  Defense+0.1927th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.7%72nd
  Defense43.9%35th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.4699th
  Defense+1.1280th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1568th
  Defense+0.1917th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4896th
  Defense+0.2148th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.1%72nd
  Defense49.0%29th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense37.7%82nd
  Defense32.2%54th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7031st
  Defense3.1817th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.6%36th
  Defense12.9%2nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.3%30th
  Defense1.6%25th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Colorado State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   COLO
2. L
   BOIS
3. W
   UCD
4. W
   BC
5. W
   TLSA
6. W
   NEV
7. W
   USU
8. W
   WYO
9. W
   SJSU
10. W
    HAW
11. W
    UNM
12. L
    AF
13. L
    UTAH

Bars above the line: better than expected for Colorado State.

Players, 2014

1. Garrett GraysonQB319 plays · +0.295 pts/play · 44th of 199 QBs
   1.76WAR1.28 to 2.29
2. Rashard HigginsWR86 plays · +0.272 pts/play · 7th of 469 WRs
   0.44WAR0.30 to 0.57
3. Dee HartRB143 plays · +0.107 pts/play · 73rd of 350 RBs
   0.29WAR0.18 to 0.38
4. Hayden HuntP36 plays · +0.215 pts/play · 23rd of 94 punters
   0.15WAR0.10 to 0.19
5. Treyous JarrellsRB67 plays · +0.097 pts/play · 189th of 350 RBs
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.16
6. Joe HansleyWR30 plays · +0.150 pts/play · 247th of 469 WRs
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.13
7. Xavier WilliamsWR25 plays · +0.126 pts/play · 307th of 469 WRs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.10
8. Jasen Oden Jr.RB22 plays · +0.098 pts/play · 265th of 350 RBs
   0.04WAR0.03 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Colorado State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Colorado State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.07 of the 0.10 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at BCQ4 1:02 4th & 10 at BC 12, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−6.1 pts
2. at NEVQ2 2:07 4th & 2 at NEV 15, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
3. at BOISQ2 2:45 4th & 2 at CSU 28, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
4. at COLOQ4 2:34 4th & 4 at COLO 35, up 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
5. at NEVQ1 2:03 4th & 3 at NEV 28, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
6. vs HAWQ4 8:25 4th & 1 at HAW 10, up 27Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
7. vs UCDQ2 0:51 4th & 1 at CSU 42, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
8. vs UNMQ4 11:11 4th & 23 at UNM 29, up 38Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

24th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Colorado State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7. Based on 12 of 13 games; one has no play-by-play to score.

1. W

   COLO
2. L

   BOIS
3. W

   UCD
4. W

   BC
5. W

   TLSA
6. W

   NEV
7. W

   USU
8. W

   WYO
9. W

   SJSU
10. W

    HAW
11. W

    UNM
12. L

    AF
13. L

    UTAH

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Colorado State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.18
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock+0.09
• Timeouts−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.49

Game by game

• COLOW 31-17 at COLO41% → 99%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +58, Clock +3
• BOISL 24-37 at BOIS29% → 1%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −29, Timeouts −1
• UCDW 49-21 vs UCD96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +6
• BCW 24-21 at BC43% → 76%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +35, Clock +2
• TLSAW 42-17 vs TLSA85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +18, Clock +1
• NEVW 31-24 at NEV56% → 94%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +38: Scoreboard +47, Clock +3
• USUW 16-13 vs USU67% → 95%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +30, Possession & field position +1
• WYOW 45-31 vs WYO93% → 98%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +12
• HAWW 49-22 vs HAW88% → 100%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +15
• UNMW 58-20 vs UNM91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +12
• AFL 24-27 at AF66% → 4%Before kickoff +16 · On the field −61: Scoreboard −41, Possession & field position −1
• UTAHL 10-45 vs UTAH39% → 0%Before kickoff −11 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −45

Points of win probability, from Colorado State's side.

Closest call

USU 37-42 CSU (2024) - Colorado State dropped to a 0.7% win probability before pulling it out.