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CSU

Colorado State 24 at Boston College 21

BC
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-7.6BC 64.9%Jared Roberts 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 21 · Q4 14:50
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:50 · Jared Roberts 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Home team on offense+3.1Pregame prior+1.8Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:31: Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 21 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +12.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:26: Treyous Jarrells run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +15.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:41: Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex Howell KICK) — BC win probability +19.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:55: Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 40 — BC win probability +15.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:02: Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 12 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +61.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 6CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00BC 4th & 7 at BC 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:36CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 13:01BC 4th & 3 at BC 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:24BC 4th & 3 at BC 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:43CSU 4th & 11 at BC 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00BC 4th & 3 at CSU 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.5%−0.7
    70% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−6.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:26BC 4th & 1 at CSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−3.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−13.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:50CSU 4th & 10 at BC 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−2.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−12.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:45CSU 4th & 2 at BC 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−4.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:55BC 4th & 3 at BC 45, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:02CSU 4th & 10 at BC 12, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.1 ptsWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%−6.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−13.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:43BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:28BC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:31CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:26CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:41BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:02CSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
57.4%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
57.4%
Myles Willis run for 5 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
57.4%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete, broken up by Joe KawulokSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
57.4%
Alex Howell punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
57.3%
Dee Hart run for 1 yd to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
57.4%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
57.4%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Dee HartSimilar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
57.5%
Hayden Hunt punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+21
57.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 21 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
57.6%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 34Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-5
57.6%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 29Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+11
57.4%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 11 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+9
57.5%
Alex Howell punt for 51 yds , Dee Hart returns for 9 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
57.5%
Treyous Jarrells run for 1 yd to the ColSt 19Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+7
57.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 7 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+12
57.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Xavier Williams for 12 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
57.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Dee Hart for 2 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
57.2%
Garrett Grayson pass intercepted Dominique Williams return for 2 yds to the BC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
57.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
57.9%
Tyler Murphy run for 6 yds to the BC 42 Tyler Murphy fumbled, recovered by BC Tyler MurphySimilar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
58.0%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
57.5%
Alex Howell punt for 27 yds, downed at the ColSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6INT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
57.2%
Treyous Jarrells run for 7 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
56.8%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+15
56.9%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 15 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
56.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+13
56.6%
Treyous Jarrells run for 13 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
56.4%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
56.4%
Treyous Jarrells run for 1 yd to the BC 29Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
56.8%
Garrett Grayson pass intercepted, touchback. Bryce Jones return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:1658% → 65%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
57.7%
Marcus Outlow run for 3 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
57.7%
Tyler Murphy run for 6 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
57.5%
Tyler Murphy run for 2 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+31
57.9%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 31 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
59.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+2
59.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+11
58.8%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 11 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
59.2%
Tyler Murphy run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 23 Tyler Murphy fumbled, recovered by BC Tyler MurphySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+3
59.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+16
59.4%
Tyler Murphy run for 16 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Howell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
50
0
61.6%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Xavier WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 10
50
+12
62.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 12 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
61.6%
Dee Hart run for 2 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
61.6%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Steven WalkerSimilar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-3
61.8%
Garrett Grayson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 39Similar
Q2 13:43
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
63.5%
Hayden Hunt punt for 35 yds, downed at the BC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9TD
13 plays · 96 yds · 6:0664% → 78%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+52
64.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 52 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
66.1%
Myles Willis run for 3 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+4
66.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+8
65.6%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to David Dudeck for 8 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
66.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
66.2%
Tyler Murphy run for 5 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+3
65.6%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the ColSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
66.2%
Tyler Murphy run for 5 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
70.3%
Hilliman,J rush for 2 yards to the CS12 (JAMES, Cory;MORGAN, Max), PENALTY CS offside 4 yards to the CS10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+2
70.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the ColSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
70.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the ColSt 7Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
77.9%
Tyler Murphy run for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Howell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:5724% → 36%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
76.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 3 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+4
75.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Elroy Masters Jr. for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+7
75.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Xavier Williams for 7 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
75.6%
Dee Hart run for 12 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
75.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 16 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
74.6%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
75.9%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+13
76.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Xavier Williams for 13 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
63.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 21 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11MISSED FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 1:3169% → 71%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
69.0%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 17Similar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+3
68.8%
Myles Willis run for 3 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+14
69.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 14 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
70.4%
Tyler Murphy run for 21 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
72.4%
Murphy,T pass incomplete to Jay,J (ELLIOTT, DeAndr), PENALTY BC ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 15
50
+7
71.3%
Tyler Murphy run for 7 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+13
71.6%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to David Dudeck for 13 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
72.2%
TEAM run for no gain to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
72.1%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+7
71.1%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Gabriel McClary for 7 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+40
70.5%
Alex Howell 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 5:3431% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
68.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 10 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
68.3%
Dee Hart run for 4 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+3
67.9%
Garrett Grayson run for 3 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+6
68.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 6 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
67.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Treyous Jarrells for 6 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
66.2%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
50
+5
66.1%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 5 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
65.9%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Dee Hart for 15 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+24
64.5%
Dee Hart run for 24 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
49.4%
Treyous Jarrells run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 5:4558% → 80%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
57.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+16
58.2%
Tyler Murphy run for 1 yd to the BC 24 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
59.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 34Similar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+13
57.8%
Myles Willis run for 13 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+24
61.4%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 24 yds Josh Bordner fumbled, recovered by BC Josh Bordner for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
62.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+11
62.9%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 11 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
62.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the ColSt 12Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+4
62.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+1
61.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the ColSt 7Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+2
59.9%
Tyler Murphy run for 2 yds to the ColSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex Howell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:5127% → 35%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-15
72.7%
GRAYSON, Garret pass complete to HIGGINS, Rashar for 17 yards to the CS45, PENALTY CS pass interference 15 yards to the CS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 25
OWN 13
+19
73.3%
Dee Hart run for 19 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
72.1%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+9
73.4%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 9 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
71.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 15 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+28
69.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Treyous Jarrells for 13 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
67.2%
Treyous Jarrells run for 5 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 5
OPP 11
-5
67.2%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Malachi Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
72.5%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Steven Walker, broken up by Manuel AsprillaSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
64.9%
Jared Roberts 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15INT
8 plays · 48 yds · 0:0070% → 75%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
70.0%
Tyler Murphy run for 3 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
69.2%
Tyler Murphy run for 8 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
71.5%
Myles Willis run for 8 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+25
73.0%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 25 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
74.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the ColSt 27Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+17
74.5%
Tyler Murphy pass intercepted Bernard Blake return for 7 yds to the ColSt 20 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the ColSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:4332% → 37%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
67.9%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Elroy Masters Jr. for 11 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
67.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Dee Hart for 1 yd to the ColSt 23Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+8
67.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 8 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+4
66.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Jasen Oden Jr. for 4 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
66.4%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 19 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
62.2%
Treyous Jarrells run for 4 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
62.2%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Elroy Masters Jr., broken up by Manuel AsprillaSimilar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+4
61.2%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Xavier Williams for 4 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
63.2%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete, broken up by Steven DanielsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
79.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
79.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+1
78.4%
Tyler Murphy run for 1 yd to the BC 45Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+8
76.8%
Alex Howell punt for 53 yds , Dee Hart returns for 8 yds to the ColSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 4:0030% → 88%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
70.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 7 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+14
70.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 14 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
68.1%
Dee Hart run for 14 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+43
65.0%
Dee Hart run for 43 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
59.6%
Treyous Jarrells run for 3 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-3
59.6%
Dee Hart run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 12Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
73.7%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard Higgins, broken up by Sean SylviaSimilar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+12
12.2%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 12 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19END OF GAME
11 plays · 16 yds · 0:3225% → 24%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
24.6%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 7 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
27.3%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 7 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
26.4%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
25.9%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 34Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 15
OWN 34
-7
23.7%
Tyler Murphy sacked by Cory James for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 27Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 22
OWN 27
0
19.1%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Gabriel McClary, broken up by Bernard BlakeSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 22
OWN 27
+15
18.0%
Murphy,T pass incomplete to Jay,J, PENALTY CS unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yards to the BC42, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
24.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct ( Yards) to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
24.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:02
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 12 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)
-61.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-24.4
TD · Q3 3:41
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex Howell KICK)
+19.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com