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CSU

Colorado State 24 at Boise State 37

BOIS
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:03: Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 24 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:18: Jay Ajayi run for 14 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK) — BOIS win probability +4.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:45: Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 21 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK) — BOIS win probability +8.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:03: Dan Goodale 23 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +7.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:20: Garrett Grayson pass complete to Jasen Oden Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:55CSU 4th & 4 at BOIS 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.1%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:12CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:26CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:26BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:29CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 25, down 10
    Close callPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:45CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 28, down 10
    Close callPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:27BOIS 4th & 4 at CSU 48, up 20
    Close callPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:02CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 44, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:19BOIS 4th & 12 at CSU 40, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:31BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 40, up 20
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:45CSU 4th & 2 at BOIS 46, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:22BOIS 4th & 1 at CSU 1, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:03BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 15, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:19CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 3:56BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:03CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:18BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:45BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:54BOIS Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:15CSU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.7%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:20CSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:5329% → 30%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
71.1%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+13
71.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 13 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
70.9%
Dee Hart run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+33
70.9%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 33 yds to the BoiSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
70.6%
Dee Hart run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
70.5%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+1
70.5%
Dee Hart run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+39
70.4%
Jared Roberts 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3370% → 71%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
70.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
70.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+8
70.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
50
+1
70.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the ColSt 49Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+10
70.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 10 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
70.4%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 13 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
70.6%
Grant Hedrick run for 2 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+16
70.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Dallas Burroughs for 16 yds to the ColSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
71.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 8 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5329% → 29%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.8%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.8%
Treyous Jarrells run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
70.9%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+10
71.2%
Hayden Hunt punt for 51 yds , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for 10 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:0971% → 74%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
70.6%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
70.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 8 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
70.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
70.9%
Jay Ajayi run for 9 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+4
71.1%
Devan Demas run for 4 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
71.1%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
71.1%
Grant Hedrick run for 10 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
71.3%
Shane Williams-Rhodes run for 11 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
71.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 3 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
71.3%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+19
71.0%
Grant Hedrick run for 19 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.3%
Grant Hedrick run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:4227% → 32%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
72.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 16 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
72.8%
Dee Hart run for 7 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+7
72.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 7 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
72.3%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Joe Hansley, broken up by Cleshawn PageSimilar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
72.4%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete, broken up by Gabe PerezSimilar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+21
73.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 21 yds to the BoiSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
71.9%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
68.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 24 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 3:2770% → 75%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
69.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
69.6%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
69.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+17
68.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 17 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
70.3%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Jay AjayiSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+23
69.9%
Grant Hedrick run for 23 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
70.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 6 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+4
71.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
71.0%
Shane Williams-Rhodes run for 6 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-5
71.0%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+11
71.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 11 yds to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
75.2%
Jay Ajayi run for 14 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2925% → 24%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
74.6%
Garrett Grayson run for 3 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
74.7%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
75.3%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 7
OWN 14
+8
75.6%
Hayden Hunt punt for 40 yds , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for 8 yds to the BoiSt 22 BOISE ST Penalty, Sideline Interference (15 Yards) to the BoiSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5975% → 74%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
75.0%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 15
OWN 34
-1
74.4%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+6
74.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
74.3%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
73.5%
Sean Wale punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3625% → 24%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
74.8%
Dee Hart run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+5
75.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 5 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+3
75.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 3 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+9
76.2%
Hayden Hunt punt for 49 yds , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for 9 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10INT
13 plays · 58 yds · 4:4175% → 78%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
75.2%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+13
76.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 13 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
76.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
76.8%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Shane Williams-RhodesSimilar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+16
76.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 16 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
77.3%
Jack Fields run for 4 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+8
77.4%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jack Fields for 8 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
77.5%
Jack Fields run for 2 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+7
77.6%
Jay Ajayi run for 7 yds to the ColSt 9Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+3
77.3%
Grant Hedrick run for 3 yds to the ColSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
78.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the ColSt 3Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
78.2%
Grant Hedrick run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 7Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
77.7%
Grant Hedrick pass intercepted, touchback. Trent Matthews return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2523% → 22%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
76.6%
Dee Hart run for 3 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
77.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 6 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-1
77.0%
Treyous Jarrells run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+8
78.5%
Hayden Hunt punt for 48 yds , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for 8 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 0:4578% → 89%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
78.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+4
79.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+35
79.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 50 yds to the BOISEST 6 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Shane Williams-Rhodes) to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
88.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 21 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13INT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2614% → 14%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Dee Hart for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
85.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
86.1%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
86.5%
Garrett Grayson pass intercepted Darian Thompson return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14END OF HALF
12 plays · 44 yds · 0:5589% → 93%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
50
+12
88.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Troy Ware for 12 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
88.0%
Grant Hedrick run for 3 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+16
88.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 16 yds to the ColSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
88.1%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 15
OPP 24
0
88.5%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+13
87.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Troy Ware for 13 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+5
85.4%
Grant Hedrick run for 5 yds to the ColSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
85.8%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
93.0%
Dan Goodale 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:0395% → 95%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+36
94.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 36 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.0%
Devan Demas run for no gain to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-7
95.0%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Cory James for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+13
94.9%
Grant Hedrick run for 13 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
94.6%
Sean Wale punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16FUMBLE
16 plays · 86 yds · 5:166% → 6%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
93.9%
Dee Hart run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 5Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+8
93.6%
Dee Hart run for 8 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+11
93.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 11 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
93.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
94.2%
Treyous Jarrells run for 1 yd to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
94.3%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Xavier WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+15
94.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 15 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
94.4%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Xavier WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
94.5%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Jordon VadenSimilar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+21
94.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 21 yds to the BoiSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
94.1%
Dee Hart run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+10
93.9%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 10 yds to the BoiSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
94.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Dee Hart for 10 yds to the BoiSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
94.3%
Dee Hart run for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
94.3%
Dee Hart run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 6 Dee Hart fumbled, recovered by BoiStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 2:2695% → 100%
Q3 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
94.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 9Similar
Q3 6:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
95.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 6 yds to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+2
96.1%
Grant Hedrick run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+26
96.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Dallas Burroughs for 11 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-12
96.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 46 BOISE ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 22
OWN 31
+14
96.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 14 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+11
96.4%
Grant Hedrick run for 11 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
99.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 44 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:430% → 0%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
99.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 8 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+4
99.6%
Deionte Gaines run for 4 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.6%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+12
99.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 12 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-7
99.7%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Mat Boesen for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 17
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 17
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Hayden Hunt punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.7%
Grant Hedrick run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+37
99.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 37 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 4 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-6
99.8%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Nu'uvali Fa'apito for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
99.7%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Matt MillerSimilar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
99.7%
Sean Wale punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:450% → 2%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.8%
Treyous Jarrells run for 2 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+12
99.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 12 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
99.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Jordon Vaden for 8 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+3
99.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+55
98.4%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 55 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2999% → 99%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.6%
Jay Ajayi run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-10
98.8%
BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Matt MillerSimilar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+11
98.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 11 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
98.7%
Sean Wale punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:481% → 10%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.6%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
98.7%
Garrett Grayson run for 3 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+15
98.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 15 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
98.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Jordon Vaden for 5 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
98.7%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Jordon VadenSimilar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+3
98.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 3 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+39
98.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 39 yds to the BoiSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.6%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Steven WalkerSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
90.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Jasen Oden Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:4297% → 97%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
96.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+36
96.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 36 yds to the ColSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
96.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the ColSt 5Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
96.9%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 9Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
97.2%
Jay Ajayi run for 8 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.9%
Grant Hedrick run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24INT
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:476% → 6%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
94.2%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Treyous JarrellsSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
95.2%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 1 yd to the ColSt 2Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+12
95.4%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 12 yds to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
95.3%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
95.4%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Jordon VadenSimilar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+18
95.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 18 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
94.9%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Jasen Oden Jr. for 6 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+18
94.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 18 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
94.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 13 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
94.0%
Garrett Grayson pass intercepted Jeremy Ioane return for no gain to the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2098% → 99%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
98.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-3
98.4%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
98.6%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
98.5%
Sean Wale punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:363% → 2%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
97.5%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Corey Bell for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 18
OWN 39
0
97.6%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 18
OWN 39
+3
97.7%
Garrett Grayson run for 3 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
97.9%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Charles LovettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:45
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 21 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)
+8.9
TD · Q4 7:20
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Jasen Oden Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)
-8.5
FG · Q2 0:03
Dan Goodale 23 yd FG GOOD
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com