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CSU

Colorado State 31 at Nevada 24

NEV
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:44 · Hayden Hunt punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Richy Turner at the Nevad 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Home team on offense−18.1Score differential−9.2Garbage-time factor−4.1Pregame prior−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:00: Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 1 yd for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:03: Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 42 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:22: Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 51 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:31: Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 9 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +9.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:22: Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 11 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +16.4 pts (now 26%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 9CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:59NEV 4th & 4 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:33CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:50NEV 4th & 10 at CSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:03CSU 4th & 3 at NEV 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00NEV 4th & 1 at CSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.6%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:00NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−2.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:03NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:07CSU 4th & 2 at NEV 15, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.2%−1.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−7.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:44CSU 4th & 11 at NEV 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:56NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:22NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 34, down 21
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:42CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:22NEV 4th & 5 at CSU 11, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%−1.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−4.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:08CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 9:00CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:03CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:22CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:48CSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:13NEV Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:31NEV Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:22NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
43.6%
Joe Hansley run for 1 yd to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-2
43.6%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Ian Seau for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+23
43.6%
Hayden Hunt punt for 54 yds , Richy Turner returns for 23 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
44.4%
Don Jackson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 4
50
0
44.4%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 4
50
0
44.4%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 4
50
0
44.2%
Alex Boy punt for 40 yds, downed at the ColSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:3556% → 55%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
44.4%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Deionte Gaines for no gain to the ColSt 10Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+13
44.7%
Dee Hart run for 13 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
44.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 10 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
44.6%
Dee Hart run for 2 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
44.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for no gain to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
44.8%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
44.9%
Hayden Hunt punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 3:3046% → 47%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
45.5%
Cody Fajardo run for 11 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
46.0%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
46.2%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
46.1%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
46.1%
Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
46.1%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Bernard BlakeSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+8
46.0%
Cody Fajardo run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
46.3%
James Butler run for no gain to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
46.3%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
45.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+50
46.5%
Brent Zuzo 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5MISSED FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:4754% → 54%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
45.9%
Dee Hart run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 13
OWN 30
0
46.1%
Dee Hart run for no gain to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+21
47.2%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 21 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
45.5%
Dee Hart run for 6 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+8
45.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 8 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
45.2%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+6
45.6%
Garrett Grayson run for 6 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
45.2%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Xavier WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+45
46.1%
Jared Roberts 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:0348% → 50%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
48.2%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+3
48.2%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
48.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 6 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
48.9%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-1
50.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+14
48.9%
Cody Fajardo run for 14 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
50.4%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+3
50.5%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
50.3%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
49.7%
Cody Fajardo run for no gain to the ColSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:1152% → 63%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
47.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 22 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
45.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Xavier Williams for 10 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
45.0%
Dee Hart run for 9 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 1
OPP 24
-1
44.8%
Dee Hart run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+12
45.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 12 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
44.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 12 yds to the Nevad 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.8%
Dee Hart run for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 1 yd for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.6%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
41.0%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Cory James and LaRyan King for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 22Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+1
39.9%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+6
39.6%
Alex Boy punt for 51 yds , Joe Hansley returns for 6 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:4763% → 70%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
37.4%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 15 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
36.3%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
36.4%
Dee Hart run for no gain to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+11
37.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 11 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
30.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 42 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
31.0%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
30.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Don JacksonSimilar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
30.4%
Alex Boy punt blocked by Jakob Buys blocked by Jakob BuysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5371% → 75%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-13
28.8%
Dee Hart run for 2 yds to the Nevad 21 COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 23
OPP 36
+2
29.2%
Garrett Grayson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 21
OPP 34
+5
29.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Deionte Gaines for 5 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 16
OPP 29
+14
29.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 14 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+33
25.5%
Jared Roberts 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 2:0726% → 29%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+18
26.2%
Cody Fajardo run for 18 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
28.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 4 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+10
28.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 10 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
28.6%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
28.3%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
26.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 12 yds to the ColSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
26.6%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
28.8%
Brent Zuzo 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
25.3%
Don Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
26.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 8 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
27.1%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
25.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-2
25.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Don Jackson for a loss of 2 yards Don Jackson fumbled, forced by Bernard Blake, recovered by Nevad Austin CorbettSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
25.0%
Alex Boy punt for 52 yds, downed at the ColSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
22.9%
Garrett Grayson run for no gain to the ColSt 10Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
23.0%
Dee Hart run for no gain to the ColSt 10Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+30
23.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 30 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
21.3%
Joe Hansley run for 13 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
20.9%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete, broken up by Salesa FaraimoSimilar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
21.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Dee Hart for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
21.4%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete, broken up by Rykeem YatesSimilar
Q3 12:44
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
22.9%
Hayden Hunt punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Richy Turner at the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.6%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
21.5%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Bernard BlakeSimilar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
21.1%
Cody Fajardo run for 1 yd to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
21.0%
Alex Boy punt for 35 yds , Joe Hansley returns for 1 yd to the ColSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 1:0682% → 93%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
17.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Xavier Williams for 8 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+4
16.9%
Dee Hart run for 4 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
6.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 51 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.9%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
10.2%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
10.1%
Cody Fajardo run for 5 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+24
10.4%
Alex Boy punt for 38 yds , Joe Hansley returns for 24 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:2295% → 98%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
4.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 31 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
4.5%
Dee Hart run for 8 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 2
OPP 9
0
4.5%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete, broken up by Ian SeauSimilar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
2.3%
Dee Hart run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:285% → 7%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
4.6%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+30
4.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 30 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
5.3%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+8
5.1%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
5.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 3 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
5.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 8 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+13
7.3%
Cody Fajardo run for 13 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20FUMBLE
12 plays · 51 yds · 2:0397% → 97%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
3.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Deionte Gaines for 2 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+13
3.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 13 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
3.5%
Dee Hart run for 1 yd to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+3
3.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 3 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+11
3.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 11 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
2.8%
Dee Hart run for 8 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-2
2.8%
Dee Hart run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+6
2.8%
Dee Hart run for 6 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
2.8%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Eric WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
2.8%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+10
2.8%
Dee Hart run for 10 yds to the Nevad 32 Dee Hart fumbled, forced by Nigel Haikins, recovered by Nevad Lenny JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:013% → 14%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
3.2%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+24
3.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Kendall Brock for 24 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
3.5%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
3.5%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+18
3.5%
Cody Fajardo run for 18 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
3.9%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+14
3.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 14 yds to the ColSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
4.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 2 yds to the ColSt 9Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
13.6%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 9 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:4992% → 94%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
7.7%
Dee Hart run for 9 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
7.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 4 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
7.4%
Dee Hart run for 5 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
7.3%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Dee HartSimilar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
5.3%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Xavier Williams, broken up by Nigel HaikinsSimilar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
5.6%
Hayden Hunt punt for 36 yds, downed at the Nevad 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 2:048% → 26%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+30
7.5%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 30 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
8.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by Aaron DavisSimilar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+23
8.8%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 23 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
10.2%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
9.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+10
9.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, H (Preston Hodges) to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
10.2%
Cody Fajardo run for 4 yds to the ColSt 12Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 0
0
7.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the ColSt 12Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
10.2%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+1
9.8%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the ColSt 11Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+11
26.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 11 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1481% → 85%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.9%
Dee Hart run for 3 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
18.7%
Dee Hart run for 2 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
19.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 2 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+16
15.0%
Hayden Hunt punt for 43 yds , Richy Turner returns for 16 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25INT
14 plays · 64 yds · 1:2323% → 26%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
23.0%
NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (Ian Seau) to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
20.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 5 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
20.7%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
21.3%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
21.2%
FAJARDO, Cody pass complete to RICHARDSON, J. for 63 yards to the CS0, clock 03:45, PENALTY NEV pass interference (RICHARDSON, J.) 15 yards to the NEV22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+6
19.6%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 6 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+19
19.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 19 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
23.5%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 12 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
25.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Kendall BrockSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
24.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 7 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+19
26.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 19 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
28.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 5 yds to the ColSt 10Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
28.1%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by DeAndre ElliottSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
26.1%
Cody Fajardo pass intercepted, touchback. DeAndre Elliott return for no gain NEVADA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0794% → 94%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
5.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 18Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-1
5.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 17Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 13
OWN 17
-1
6.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:22
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 11 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
+16.4
TD · Q3 7:22
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 51 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q4 10:31
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 9 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
+9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com