2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreCSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:13 · Jordan Noyes 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore differentialDefense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:03: Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +13.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:59: Tory Horton 10 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — CSU win probability +22.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- TD · Q4 1:56: Avery Morrow 1 Yd Run (Tory Horton Run for Two-Point Conversion) — CSU win probability +53.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:20: Everett Hayes 44 Yd Field Goal — ORST win probability +29.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ORST down 3 timeouts).
- TD · OT 0:00: Avery Morrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORST 17 — CSU win probability +24.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 11:38CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snapGo for it24.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.5%average punt
- Q1 5:35CSU 4th & 2 at ORST 43, up 7Close callPunted · 29.5% before the snapGo for it29.6%57% to convertField goal28.9%−0.728% to makePuntTheir call29.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:51ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snapGo for it69.5%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.6%average punt
- Q1 0:58CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snapGo for it30.9%−1.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.4%average punt
- Q2 11:04ORST 4th & 1 at CSU 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.8%71% to convertField goal63.8%−2.058% to makePunt59.9%−5.9average punt
- Q2 5:13CSU 4th & 6 at ORST 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snapGo for it33.0%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call33.1%91% to makePunt28.1%−5.0average punt
- Q3 13:37ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 36, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snapGo for it70.5%−1.031% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.5%average punt
- Q3 8:51CSU 4th & 21 at CSU 46, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snapGo for it24.3%−2.79% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.0%average punt
- Q3 5:06ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 44, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call74.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt73.8%−0.9average punt
- Q4 14:52ORST 4th & 3 at CSU 7, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.3%46% to convertField goal73.9%−1.491% to makePunt61.3%−14.0average punt
- Q4 5:11ORST 4th & 13 at ORST 33, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snapGo for it78.9%−5.420% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.3%average punt
- Q4 1:56CSU 4th & 1 at ORST 1, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.0%59% to convertField goal17.5%−18.594% to makePunt6.1%−29.9average punt
- Q4 0:20ORST 4th & 10 at CSU 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snapGo for it21.0%−15.929% to convertField goalTheir call36.9%64% to makePunt11.3%−25.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 10:15CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.7%97% to makeGo for two25.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:04ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.1%97% to makeGo for two70.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:03ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.0%97% to makeGo for two72.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:52ORST Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.4%97% to makeGo for two88.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:59CSU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryNumbers favored kick by 1.1 ptsWent for two · failedKick21.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call20.0%−1.145% to convert
- Q4 1:56CSU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick58.2%−0.897% to makeGo for twoTheir call59.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCSUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 3:2229% → 29%
ORSTDrive 2INT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0671% → 70%
Q1 10:58
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-3
70.5%
(10:58) QB Keeper MCCOY, Gevani rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the OSU19 (HOWELL, Jack;MITCHELL, James), clock 10:53. PENALTY OSU Holding on WELLS, Van enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the OSU16 to the OSU8 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
70.3%
Gevani McCoy pass intercepted Gabe Kirschke return for no gain to the ORST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD1 play · 12 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4FUMBLE6 plays · 26 yds · 2:2969% → 68%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
68.1%
Jam Griffin run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 49 Jam Griffin fumbled, recovered by CSU Will Prendergast W. Prendergast return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0334% → 35%
Q1 6:58
2ND & 9
50
+2
65.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 2 yds to the ORST 48Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+5
65.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the ORST 43Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
65.3%
Paddy Turner punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:3665% → 63%
CSUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4936% → 37%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
62.5%
(02:11) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep to the right incomplete intended for ROSS, Jordan thrown to the OSU20, clock 02:03. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on ROSS, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the CSU23. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD11 plays · 82 yds · 4:4362% → 69%
CSUDrive 9FG12 plays · 68 yds · 5:5134% → 41%
Q2 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+36
65.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 36 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
60.3%
(07:19) MARSHALL, Justin rush to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the OSU0, TOUCHDOWN CSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 07:14 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY Before the snap, CSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the OSU11 to the OSU16. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-5
59.9%
Colorado State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Dominic Morris) to the ORST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10TD17 plays · 70 yds · 5:0159% → 76%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
58.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
60.1%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 16 yds to the CSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
60.8%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 2 yds to the CSU 19Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+14
59.0%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 14 yds to the CSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
60.8%
Gevani McCoy run for 5 yds to the CSU 4 Colorado State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ayden Hector) to the CSU 2Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
62.3%
(00:17) MCCOY, Gevani pass short to the right incomplete intended for TERRY II, Jermaine thrown to the CSU0, clock 00:12. PENALTY CSU Holding on WILSON, Chase enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the CSU2 to the CSU1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 3 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2271% → 68%
Q3 13:46
4TH & 4
OWN 41
-5
69.4%
(13:46) GREEN, Josh punt 44 yards to the CSU15, fair catch by HORTON, Tory, clock 13:39. PENALTY Before the snap, OSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the OSU41 to the OSU36. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+5
68.4%
Josh Green punt for 53 yds , Tory Horton returns for 5 yds to the CSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT11 plays · 37 yds · 4:2530% → 28%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
69.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 18 yds to the CSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
67.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 8 yds to the ORST 49Similar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
67.4%
(10:46) MORROW, Avery rush up the middle for a gain of 24 yards to the OSU19 (IVY JR., Tyrice), clock 10:38. PENALTY CSU Holding on MOSS, Drew enforced 10 yards from the OSU43 to the CSU47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 21
OWN 46
0
70.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for no gain to the CSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD16 plays · 87 yds · 8:5172% → 87%
Q3 7:54
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+16
71.2%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 16 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+9
72.6%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 9 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
76.1%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 8 yds to the CSU 39Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
76.3%
(03:00) MCCOY, Gevani pass to the left incomplete intended for HANKERSON, Anthony thrown to the CSU30; QB hurried by HOWELL, Jack and MITCHELL, James, clock 02:53. PENALTY CSU Holding on GARDNER, Jaylen enforced 10 yards from the CSU36 to the CSU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+5
76.8%
(02:07) ALLAH, Salahadin rush up the middle for no gain to the CSU19 (GARDNER, Jaylen), clock 02:00. PENALTY CSU Offsides on GATKUOTH, Nuer enforced 5 yards from the CSU19 to the CSU14 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+7
76.8%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 7 yds to the CSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15TD19 plays · 75 yds · 6:5214% → 35%
Q4 14:14
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
85.6%
Colorado State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Kobe Johnson) to the CSU 25Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
87.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 13 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
84.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 34Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+7
86.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 7 yds to the CSU 41Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+19
85.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 19 yds to the ORST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
83.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Dexter Foster for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 20
50
+5
87.3%
(11:33) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass short to the left incomplete intended for PERSON, Jamari broken up by VADRAWALE III, Sailasa at the OSU47, clock 11:30. PENALTY OSU Offsides on OMOTOSHO, Oluwaseyi enforced 5 yards from the OSU50 to the OSU45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+16
87.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 16 yds to the ORST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
83.3%
(10:44) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WINFIELD, Armani thrown to the OSU6, clock 10:38. PENALTY OSU Offsides on TAYLOR, Nikko enforced 5 yards from the OSU29 to the OSU24 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
86.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 4 yds to the ORST 5Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
87.9%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Aaron Karas) to the ORST 10Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
65.3%
Tory Horton 10 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 2:4782% → 84%
Q4 5:11
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+5
84.1%
Josh Green punt for 53 yds , Tory Horton returns for 5 yds to the CSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17TD8 plays · 81 yds · 3:0126% → 87%
ORSTDrive 18FG15 plays · 52 yds · 1:3026% → 55%
Q4 1:31
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+1
25.4%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the ORST 32 Anthony Hankerson fumbled, recovered by ORST Joshua Gray J. Gray return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
25.1%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 6 yds to the ORST 38Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+7
25.1%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 7 yds to the ORST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
25.2%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 6 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+12
28.9%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 12 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
26.4%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 6 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+5
34.9%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 5 yds to the CSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19FUMBLE4 plays · 46 yds · 0:1950% → 58%
Q4 0:07
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+18
48.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 18 yds to the ORST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
41.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 14 yds Tory Horton fumbled, recovered by ORST Zakaih Saez Z. Saez return for 0 yds , return for no gain to the ORST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20TD7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 78%
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-5
41.1%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Saveyon Henderson) to the ORST 19Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+4
46.9%
(00:00) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass up the middle incomplete intended for GOODIE, Caleb thrown to the OSU11. PENALTY OSU Pass Interference on VADRAWALE III, Sailasa enforced at the spot of the foul for 4 yards to the OSU15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21TD3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0016% → 28%
CSUDrive 22Uncategorized13 plays · 14 yds · 0:0079% → 74%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
20.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 15 yds to the ORST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
25.9%
(00:00) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass up the middle incomplete intended for HORTON, Tory thrown to the OSU0. PENALTY OSU Pass Interference on VADRAWALE III, Sailasa enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the OSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
31.0%
Colorado State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Kobe Johnson) to the ORST 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+74.1
TD · Q4 1:56
Avery Morrow 1 Yd Run (Tory Horton Run for Two-Point Conversion)
-53.6
FG · Q4 0:20
Everett Hayes 44 Yd Field Goal
+29.3