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CSU

Colorado State 31 at Oregon State 39

ORST
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-53.6ORST 13.3%Avery Morrow 1 Yd Run (Tory Horton Runfor Two-Point Conversion)AWAY 24 - HOME 21 · Q4 1:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:56 · Avery Morrow 1 Yd Run (Tory Horton Run for Two-Point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore differentialDefense timeouts
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 143Pregame prior+0.7Home team on offense−24.7Garbage-time factor−7.4Time remaining−1.9Score differential−5.4Defense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:03: Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +13.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:59: Tory Horton 10 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — CSU win probability +22.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q4 1:56: Avery Morrow 1 Yd Run (Tory Horton Run for Two-Point Conversion) — CSU win probability +53.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:20: Everett Hayes 44 Yd Field Goal — ORST win probability +29.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ORST down 3 timeouts).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Avery Morrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORST 17 — CSU win probability +24.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:38CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:35CSU 4th & 2 at ORST 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:51ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:58CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:04ORST 4th & 1 at CSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.8%−2.0
    58% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−5.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:13CSU 4th & 6 at ORST 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−5.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:37ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:51CSU 4th & 21 at CSU 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−2.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:06ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.8%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:52ORST 4th & 3 at CSU 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    73.9%−1.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−14.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:11ORST 4th & 13 at ORST 33, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−5.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:56CSU 4th & 1 at ORST 1, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−18.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−29.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:20ORST 4th & 10 at CSU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−15.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−25.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:15CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:04ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:03ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:52ORST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:59CSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.1 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.0%−1.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:56CSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    58.2%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    59.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:2229% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
71.1%
Justin Marshall run for 10 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
71.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the CSU 47Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
70.8%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 1
50
-4
70.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 46Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
70.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2INT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0671% → 70%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
70.7%
Oregon State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ORST 5Similar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+11
70.7%
Jam Griffin run for 11 yds to the ORST 16Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-3
70.5%
(10:58) QB Keeper MCCOY, Gevani rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the OSU19 (HOWELL, Jack;MITCHELL, James), clock 10:53. PENALTY OSU Holding on WELLS, Van enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the OSU16 to the OSU8 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
70.3%
Gevani McCoy pass intercepted Gabe Kirschke return for no gain to the ORST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
68.2%
Justin Marshall run for 12 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:2969% → 68%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.8%
Jam Griffin run for 7 yds to the ORST 32Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
68.8%
Jam Griffin run for 2 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
68.3%
Jam Griffin run for 1 yd to the ORST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.8%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+18
67.7%
Jam Griffin run for 18 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
68.1%
Jam Griffin run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 49 Jam Griffin fumbled, recovered by CSU Will Prendergast W. Prendergast return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0334% → 35%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
66.4%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 9
50
+2
65.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 2 yds to the ORST 48Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+5
65.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the ORST 43Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
65.3%
Paddy Turner punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:3665% → 63%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
64.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for 9 yds to the ORST 21Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+3
64.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the ORST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
63.7%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 6 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+1
63.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the ORST 31Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
62.8%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
62.7%
Josh Green punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4936% → 37%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+23
64.0%
Avery Morrow run for 23 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
62.5%
(02:11) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep to the right incomplete intended for ROSS, Jordan thrown to the OSU20, clock 02:03. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on ROSS, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the CSU23. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+8
63.5%
Avery Morrow run for 8 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 17
OWN 31
0
62.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 17
OWN 31
0
63.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 17
OWN 31
0
63.3%
Paddy Turner punt for 51 yds, downed at the ORST 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 4:4362% → 69%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
61.7%
Gevani McCoy run for 1 yd to the ORST 19Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+3
61.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the ORST 22Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+6
60.7%
Gevani McCoy run for 6 yds to the ORST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
60.7%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 19 yds to the ORST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
61.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 7 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+8
61.9%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 8 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
61.5%
Zachary Card run for 8 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
61.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the CSU 30Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
62.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the CSU 29Similar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+29
69.0%
Gevani McCoy run for 29 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:5134% → 41%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.3%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+36
65.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 36 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
63.5%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ORST 35Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+13
62.7%
Avery Morrow run for 13 yds to the ORST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
62.0%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the ORST 15Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+4
60.7%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the ORST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
60.3%
(07:19) MARSHALL, Justin rush to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the OSU0, TOUCHDOWN CSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 07:14 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY Before the snap, CSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the OSU11 to the OSU16. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+7
60.6%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the ORST 9Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-5
59.9%
Colorado State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Dominic Morris) to the ORST 14Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 13
OPP 14
0
60.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+7
61.6%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the ORST 7Similar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
58.8%
Jordan Noyes 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10TD
17 plays · 70 yds · 5:0159% → 76%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
58.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
50
+3
60.9%
Trent Walker run for 3 yds to the CSU 47Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
60.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
60.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 6 yds to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
60.1%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 16 yds to the CSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
61.1%
Zachary Card run for 2 yds to the CSU 21Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
60.8%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 2 yds to the CSU 19Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+14
59.0%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 14 yds to the CSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
60.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 9Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
62.5%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
60.8%
Gevani McCoy run for 5 yds to the CSU 4 Colorado State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ayden Hector) to the CSU 2Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
62.3%
(00:17) MCCOY, Gevani pass short to the right incomplete intended for TERRY II, Jermaine thrown to the CSU0, clock 00:12. PENALTY CSU Holding on WILSON, Chase enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the CSU2 to the CSU1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the CSU 1Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.1%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2271% → 68%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
70.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 37Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
70.9%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:19
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+4
69.9%
Gevani McCoy run for 4 yds to the ORST 41Similar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 4
OWN 41
-5
69.4%
(13:46) GREEN, Josh punt 44 yards to the CSU15, fair catch by HORTON, Tory, clock 13:39. PENALTY Before the snap, OSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the OSU41 to the OSU36. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+5
68.4%
Josh Green punt for 53 yds , Tory Horton returns for 5 yds to the CSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:2530% → 28%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
69.9%
Justin Marshall run for 7 yds to the CSU 16Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+9
69.7%
Justin Marshall run for 9 yds to the CSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
69.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 18 yds to the CSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
67.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 8 yds to the ORST 49Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+6
65.5%
Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the ORST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
67.4%
(10:46) MORROW, Avery rush up the middle for a gain of 24 yards to the OSU19 (IVY JR., Tyrice), clock 10:38. PENALTY CSU Holding on MOSS, Drew enforced 10 yards from the OSU43 to the CSU47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 20
OWN 47
-1
69.7%
Kobe Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 46Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 21
OWN 46
0
70.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 21
OWN 46
0
70.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for no gain to the CSU 46Similar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 21
OWN 46
0
72.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 41 yds, downed at the ORST 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD
16 plays · 87 yds · 8:5172% → 87%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
72.1%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+7
71.8%
Gevani McCoy run for 7 yds to the ORST 20Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+16
71.2%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 16 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
73.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the ORST 41Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
74.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 43Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+1
73.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the ORST 44Similar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+9
72.6%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 9 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
76.1%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 8 yds to the CSU 39Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+3
76.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
76.3%
(03:00) MCCOY, Gevani pass to the left incomplete intended for HANKERSON, Anthony thrown to the CSU30; QB hurried by HOWELL, Jack and MITCHELL, James, clock 02:53. PENALTY CSU Holding on GARDNER, Jaylen enforced 10 yards from the CSU36 to the CSU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
76.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 7 yds to the CSU 19Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+5
76.8%
(02:07) ALLAH, Salahadin rush up the middle for no gain to the CSU19 (GARDNER, Jaylen), clock 02:00. PENALTY CSU Offsides on GATKUOTH, Nuer enforced 5 yards from the CSU19 to the CSU14 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
76.9%
Salahadin Allah run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 15Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+7
76.8%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 7 yds to the CSU 8Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+1
75.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the CSU 7Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+7
87.2%
Gevani McCoy 7 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 6:5214% → 35%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.9%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
84.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
85.6%
Colorado State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Kobe Johnson) to the CSU 25Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
87.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 13 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
84.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 34Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+7
86.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 7 yds to the CSU 41Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+19
85.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 19 yds to the ORST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
83.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Dexter Foster for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 20
50
+5
87.3%
(11:33) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass short to the left incomplete intended for PERSON, Jamari broken up by VADRAWALE III, Sailasa at the OSU47, clock 11:30. PENALTY OSU Offsides on OMOTOSHO, Oluwaseyi enforced 5 yards from the OSU50 to the OSU45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
86.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+16
87.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 16 yds to the ORST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
83.3%
(10:44) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WINFIELD, Armani thrown to the OSU6, clock 10:38. PENALTY OSU Offsides on TAYLOR, Nikko enforced 5 yards from the OSU29 to the OSU24 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 5
OPP 24
+4
85.3%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the ORST 20Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+12
85.5%
Avery Morrow run for 12 yds to the ORST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
85.3%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 9Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
86.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 4 yds to the ORST 5Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
87.9%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Aaron Karas) to the ORST 10Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
65.3%
Tory Horton 10 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:4782% → 84%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 6 yds to the ORST 31Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
84.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
85.9%
Trent Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORST 34Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
84.7%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-5
83.9%
Oregon State Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the ORST 29Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+4
83.6%
Gevani McCoy run for 4 yds to the ORST 33Similar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+5
84.1%
Josh Green punt for 53 yds , Tory Horton returns for 5 yds to the CSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 3:0126% → 87%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+52
74.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 52 yds to the ORST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
64.1%
Avery Morrow run for 22 yds to the ORST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
66.0%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the ORST 4Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
65.3%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the ORST 1Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.5%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the ORST 1Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.3%
Avery Morrow 1 Yd Run (Tory Horton Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 1:3026% → 55%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
26.2%
Gevani McCoy run for 9 yds to the ORST 31Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
28.6%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+1
25.4%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the ORST 32 Anthony Hankerson fumbled, recovered by ORST Joshua Gray J. Gray return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
25.1%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 6 yds to the ORST 38Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
27.9%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+7
25.1%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 7 yds to the ORST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
25.2%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 6 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+12
28.9%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 12 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
26.4%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 6 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+5
34.9%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 5 yds to the CSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
33.4%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
28.5%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
25.4%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
54.7%
Everett Hayes 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 46 yds · 0:1950% → 58%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
49.7%
Avery Morrow run for 15 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
45.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 38Similar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+18
48.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 18 yds to the ORST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
41.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 14 yds Tory Horton fumbled, recovered by ORST Zakaih Saez Z. Saez return for 0 yds , return for no gain to the ORST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 78%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
41.1%
Avery Morrow run for 9 yds to the ORST 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+1
41.1%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the ORST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
41.1%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the ORST 14Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-5
41.1%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Saveyon Henderson) to the ORST 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 19
0
42.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+4
46.9%
(00:00) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass up the middle incomplete intended for GOODIE, Caleb thrown to the OSU11. PENALTY OSU Pass Interference on VADRAWALE III, Sailasa enforced at the spot of the foul for 4 yards to the OSU15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
22.0%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORST 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0016% → 28%
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+17
15.5%
Caleb Goodie 17 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
28.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the CSU 20Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+1
28.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the CSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22Uncategorized
13 plays · 14 yds · 0:0079% → 74%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
20.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 15 yds to the ORST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
22.0%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the ORST 10Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
22.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
17.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
25.9%
(00:00) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass up the middle incomplete intended for HORTON, Tory thrown to the OSU0. PENALTY OSU Pass Interference on VADRAWALE III, Sailasa enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the OSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
24.3%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 3Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
23.9%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the ORST 3Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
24.3%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 3 yards to the ORST 6Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
31.0%
Colorado State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Kobe Johnson) to the ORST 11Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
0
25.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+74.1
TD · Q4 1:56
Avery Morrow 1 Yd Run (Tory Horton Run for Two-Point Conversion)
-53.6
FG · Q4 0:20
Everett Hayes 44 Yd Field Goal
+29.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com