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CSU

Colorado State 21 at Air Force 13

AF
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:40 · Paddy Turner punt for 35 yds, downed at the AFA 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOffense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Home team on offense−0.3Pregame prior−22.4Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:58: Timeout Air Force, clock 06:58 — CSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:47: Jalen Dupree run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +13.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:59: Dylan Carson run for 21 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down — AF win probability +9.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:02: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 85 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:50: John Busha run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — AF win probability +9.7 pts (now 13%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 9 of 11CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 9:14AF 4th & 7 at AF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:40CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 21, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:41AF 4th & 6 at AF 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:05CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00AF 4th & 3 at AF 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:04CSU 4th & 8 at AF 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:05AF 4th & 2 at AF 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:11AF 4th & 1 at AF 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.0%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:01AF 4th & 9 at CSU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:33AF 4th & 7 at AF 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:13CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:48CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:56CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 18, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−3.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:11AF 4th & 2 at AF 38, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.9%−3.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:46CSU 4th & 12 at CSU 48, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:23AF 4th & 6 at AF 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:21AF 4th & 12 at AF 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:03AF 4th & 10 at AF 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 5:28CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:47CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:02CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:49AF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:50AF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.5%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:4175% → 74%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
25.3%
Avery Morrow run for 16 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
25.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 4 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+50
25.9%
Avery Morrow run for 50 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
26.1%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
26.2%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 2 Avery Morrow fumbled, recovered by AFA Osaro Aihie O. Aihie return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:5727% → 28%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
26.6%
Terrence Gist run for 2 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+7
26.9%
Cade Harris run for 7 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+20
27.0%
Josh Johnson run for 20 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
27.5%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-1
27.9%
Tylor Latham run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
28.0%
Josh Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
27.8%
Luke Freer punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2472% → 71%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
28.1%
Avery Morrow run for 9 yds to the CSU 21Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 1
OWN 21
0
28.1%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the CSU 21Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 1
OWN 21
0
28.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
29.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 35 yds, downed at the AFA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5329% → 30%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
29.3%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+3
29.7%
Tylor Latham run for 3 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-1
29.8%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
29.6%
Carson Bay punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:2871% → 69%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
29.5%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 10Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+10
29.9%
Jalen Dupree run for 10 yds to the CSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
30.1%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
30.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 4 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
30.7%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 29Similar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
31.2%
Paddy Turner punt for 44 yds, downed at the AFA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5232% → 33%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
32.3%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
32.9%
Tylor Latham run for no gain to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+2
32.6%
Terrence Gist run for 2 yds to the AFA 34 Terrence Gist fumbled, recovered by AFA Terrence Gist T. Gist return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+56
32.5%
Luke Freer punt for 56 yds , Kobe Johnson returns for no gain to the CSU 8 , returns for no gain to the CSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
14 plays · 47 yds · 5:5468% → 66%
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
31.9%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the CSU 10Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+7
32.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 7 yds to the CSU 17Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+1
32.5%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
32.6%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the CSU 21Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+19
33.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 19 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
32.0%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 41Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+12
30.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 12 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
31.8%
(10:50) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden scrambles up the middle for no gain to the AF47 (TOMASI, James), clock 10:45. PENALTY CSU Personal Foul on MOSS, Drew enforced 15 yards from the AF47 to the CSU38. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 25
OWN 38
0
33.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 25
OWN 38
+6
33.5%
Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 19
OWN 44
+11
33.7%
Avery Morrow run for 11 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
33.9%
punt for 44 yds, downed at the AFA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5737% → 36%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
36.7%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 7
OWN 4
0
36.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the AFA 4 fumbled, recovered by AFA Dylan Carson D. Carson return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+5
36.3%
Cade Harris run for 5 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+4
35.9%
Luke Freer punt for 36 yds , Lavon Brown returns for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 1:2869% → 71%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
30.8%
Caleb Goodie run for 4 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+14
32.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 14 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
29.1%
Kobe Johnson pass complete to Vince Brown II for 23 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.6%
Kemper Hodges run for 3 yds to the AFA 28 Kemper Hodges fumbled, recovered by CSU Buom Jock B. Jock return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:2371% → 86%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
29.2%
Jalen Dupree run for 13 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
29.3%
Jalen Dupree run for 7 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+5
29.3%
Jalen Dupree run for 5 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
27.9%
Jalen Dupree run for 2 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.4%
Jalen Dupree run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12MISSED FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 2:4613% → 9%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.2%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
12.9%
Cade Harris run for 1 yd to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
13.5%
John Busha run for 10 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
14.2%
Terrence Gist run for 5 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
14.2%
Tylor Latham run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
13.9%
Tylor Latham run for 1 yd to the AFA 49Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
11.1%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
11.6%
John Busha pass complete to Jared Roznos for 17 yds to the CSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
12.5%
Terrence Gist run for 4 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+45
9.1%
Matthew Dapore 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:5819% → 18%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
18.5%
Dylan Carson run for 21 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
20.0%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
20.2%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+5
19.9%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
18.6%
John Busha run for 1 yd to the CSU 43Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
18.4%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
18.0%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
17.5%
Carson Bay punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Lavon Brown at the CSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 90 yds · 0:5184% → 93%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
16.1%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the CSU 15Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
16.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+85
6.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 85 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:2610% → 5%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
9.9%
John Busha run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
7.4%
Tylor Latham run for 9 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
6.8%
Tylor Latham run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
6.3%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+5
5.4%
Terrence Gist run for 5 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
5.0%
Luke Freer punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1794% → 94%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
6.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
6.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
5.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17INT
10 plays · 13 yds · 4:105% → 2%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
4.5%
Dylan Carson run for 7 yds to the CSU 38Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+1
4.3%
John Busha run for 1 yd to the CSU 37Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
4.0%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the CSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
4.3%
John Busha run for no gain to the CSU 33Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
3.1%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-3
2.7%
John Busha sacked by James Mitchell and Mukendi Wa-Kalonji for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 36Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 13
OPP 36
+8
2.4%
(05:11) BUSHA, John pass up the middle incomplete intended for ROZNOS, Jared broken up by LONG, Owen at the CSU25, clock 05:08. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on LONG, Owen enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the CSU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
2.9%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-8
2.6%
John Busha sacked by Mukendi Wa-Kalonji for a loss of 8 yards to the CSU 32Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 14
OPP 32
0
2.2%
John Busha pass intercepted, touchback. Dylan Phelps return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18FUMBLE
11 plays · 53 yds · 5:2797% → 99%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
2.6%
Justin Marshall run for 8 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
2.5%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the CSU 28Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
2.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 3 yds to the CSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
2.2%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+24
2.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 24 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
1.9%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+2
1.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+10
1.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 10 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
1.5%
Jalen Dupree run for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+2
1.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 2 yds Armani Winfield fumbled, recovered by AFA Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner L. Tuioti-Mariner return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:241% → 6%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
1.1%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
1.0%
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+38
1.0%
John Busha pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 38 yds to the CSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
5.6%
John Busha pass complete to Tylor Latham for 33 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:5395% → 96%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
5.1%
Avery Morrow run for 11 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
4.5%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the CSU 36Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
4.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 6 yds to the CSU 42Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
3.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+35
4.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 35 yds , Osaro Aihie returns for no gain to the AFA 25 , returns for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:323% → 13%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.8%
Tylor Latham run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
2.8%
John Busha pass complete to Tylor Latham for 8 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+39
2.6%
John Busha pass complete to Quin Smith for 39 yds to the CSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
3.6%
Cade Harris run for 4 yds to the CSU 21Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+9
3.4%
John Busha pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 9 yds to the CSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
3.1%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the CSU 10Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
3.0%
John Busha run for 6 yds to the CSU 4Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+2
2.6%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the CSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
2.9%
John Busha run for 1 yd to the CSU 1Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.6%
John Busha run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5392% → 91%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
8.5%
Colorado State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the CSU 18Similar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 15
OWN 18
0
8.5%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the CSU 18Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 15
OWN 18
0
8.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 15
OWN 18
0
9.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 15
OWN 18
0
9.4%
Paddy Turner punt for 62 yds, downed at the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23INT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:047% → 5%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
6.7%
John Busha pass complete to Tylor Latham for 10 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
5.6%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
5.1%
John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 7 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+1
5.2%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+2
4.6%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
5.7%
John Busha run for 1 yd to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-4
4.7%
John Busha sacked by Gabe Kirschke for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 13
OWN 37
-5
4.8%
John Busha pass intercepted Dom Jones return for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:3796% → 98%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
50
-15
4.0%
(02:23) MORROW, Avery rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the AF46 (AIHIE, Osaro), clock 02:24. PENALTY CSU Personal Foul on MOSS, Drew enforced 15 yards from the CSU50 to the CSU35 [SG]. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 25
OWN 35
+3
4.2%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the CSU 38Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 22
OWN 38
+5
3.2%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the CSU 43Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 17
OWN 43
+5
2.4%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the CSU 48Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
2.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 33 yds , Brandon Engel returns for no gain to the AFA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25DOWNS
14 plays · 24 yds · 1:382% → 1%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
1.8%
John Busha run for 4 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
2.0%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
1.9%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+10
1.7%
John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 10 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
1.4%
John Busha sacked by Gabe Kirschke and Kennedy McDowell for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 16
OWN 27
0
1.2%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 16
OWN 27
+4
1.1%
John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 4 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 12
OWN 31
+12
1.1%
John Busha run for 12 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
1.4%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
1.2%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
1.1%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
1.0%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:47
Jalen Dupree run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
-13.4
TD · Q4 5:50
John Busha run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+9.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:59
Dylan Carson run for 21 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down
+9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com