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COLO

Colorado 28 at Colorado State 9

CSU
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:55 · Paddy Turner punt for 49 yds, downed at the COLO 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Home team on offense+1.5Score differential−0.1Pregame prior−16.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:51: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +7.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:58: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 34 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +7.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:11: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 2 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +11.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:25: Isaiah Augustave run for 4 yds to the COLO 11 — COLO win probability +6.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:58: Justin Marshall run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:58CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:05COLO 4th & 13 at COLO 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:21CSU 4th & 7 at COLO 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:56COLO 4th & 8 at CSU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:44COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:48CSU 4th & 14 at CSU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:31CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:36COLO 4th & 6 at CSU 44, up 11
    Close callPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    74.7%−1.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:33CSU 4th & 4 at COLO 43, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−1.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:45CSU 4th & 1 at COLO 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−2.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−8.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:01CSU 4th & 6 at COLO 23, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−6.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:34CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 34, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:58COLO 4th & 10 at CSU 48, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:01COLO 4th & 6 at CSU 34, up 19
    Close callWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:17CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 43, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 5:51COLO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:58COLO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:11COLO Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:20COLO Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:58CSU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0229% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 4 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
29.5%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the CSU 29Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
29.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 2 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
30.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 31 yds, downed at the COLO 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4770% → 69%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
30.1%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (Sav'ell Smalls) to the COLO 33Similar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 15
OWN 33
0
30.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+2
30.2%
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the COLO 35Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 13
OWN 35
0
30.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
30.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 4:3931% → 34%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
30.8%
Justin Marshall run for 27 yds to the COLO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
31.3%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the COLO 27Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+8
31.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 8 yds to the COLO 19Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+11
31.9%
Justin Marshall run for 11 yds to the COLO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
32.7%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the COLO 7Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-7
33.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for a loss of 7 yards to the COLO 14 Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi fumbled, recovered by CSU Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi B. Fowler-Nicolosi return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+7
32.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 7 yds to the COLO 7Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
34.0%
Jordan Noyes 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:2766% → 64%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 9 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+25
33.6%
Micah Welch run for 25 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
33.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 5 yds to the CSU 36Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-10
33.7%
Colorado Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the CSU 42Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+9
34.1%
Micah Welch run for 9 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+5
34.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 5 yds to the CSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
34.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the CSU 33Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+7
35.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 7 yds to the CSU 26Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
35.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+44
36.2%
Alejandro Mata 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5736% → 38%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
36.4%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
36.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 4 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+5
37.2%
Colorado Penalty, Offsides (Tawfiq Thomas) to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
37.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 3 yds to the CSU 42Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
38.6%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the CSU 42Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
38.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
37.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 49 yds, downed at the COLO 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0261% → 59%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
38.7%
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the COLO 10Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
38.8%
Shedeur Sanders run for no gain to the COLO 10Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+2
39.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Sam Hart for 2 yds to the COLO 12Similar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 7
OWN 12
+15
40.8%
Mark Vassett punt for 55 yds , Tory Horton returns for 15 yds to the CSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4641% → 39%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
40.8%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 49Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-5
40.8%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CSU 44Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 14
OWN 44
0
40.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 14
OWN 44
0
39.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
39.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 41 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the COLO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 5:5360% → 68%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
40.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
40.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 5 yds to the COLO 20Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+17
41.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 17 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
40.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 4 yds to the COLO 41Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+6
39.4%
Isaiah Augustave run for 6 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
39.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 44Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+15
41.0%
(08:47) SANDERS, Shedeur pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HORN JR., Jimmy thrown to the CSU20; QB hurried by LAURICH, Andrew, clock 08:41. PENALTY CSU Roughing the Passer on LAURICH, Andrew enforced 15 yards from the COL44 to the CSU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
39.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Micah Welch for 9 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+6
39.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 6 yds to the CSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
39.5%
Micah Welch run for no gain to the CSU 26Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+10
39.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 10 yds to the CSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
40.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 12 yds to the CSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
32.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:1536% → 35%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
35.5%
Keegan Holles run for 7 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-2
37.2%
Keegan Holles run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 26Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+2
35.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 2 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 3
OWN 28
-5
36.0%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Jacob Gardner) to the CSU 23Similar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+1
35.4%
Paddy Turner punt for 62 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 1 yd to the COLO 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 2:3364% → 78%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
36.4%
Micah Welch run for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 13Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 13
OWN 13
0
35.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 13
OWN 13
+19
36.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 19 yds to the COLO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
34.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 9 yds to the COLO 41Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-10
31.6%
(02:00) WELCH, Micah rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the COL44 (MORRIS, Dominic;WA-KALONJI, Mukendi), clock 01:56. PENALTY COL Holding on SEATON, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the COL41 to the COL31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-10
34.3%
(01:56) SANDERS, Shedeur pass short to the right complete for 6 yards to WELCH, Micah caught at the COL36 and advanced to the COL37 (WILSON, Chase;HOWELL, Jack), clock 01:47. PENALTY COL Holding on HOUSTON, Phillip enforced 10 yards from the COL31 to the COL21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 21
OWN 21
+15
34.9%
Colorado State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (James Mitchell) to the CSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
30.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+14
31.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 14 yds to the CSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
30.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
22.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 34 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 0:5324% → 28%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+5
24.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 5 yds to the CSU 13Similar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
24.8%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Drew Moss) to the CSU 8Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+22
24.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 22 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
25.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 1 yd to the CSU 36Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
25.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+15
24.2%
Colorado Penalty, Block below the waist on HUNTER, Travis enforced (Travis Hunter) to the COLO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+52
28.2%
Jordan Noyes 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:2476% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.5%
Isaiah Augustave run for 8 yds to the COLO 33Similar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
24.0%
Isaiah Augustave run for 9 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
23.3%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (Jeremiah Brown) to the COLO 37Similar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+8
24.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 8 yds to the COLO 45Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
23.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+7
23.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 7 yds to the CSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
22.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 5 yds to the CSU 43Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-1
22.4%
Isaiah Augustave run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 44Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
22.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
23.1%
Mark Vassett punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4023% → 22%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
23.2%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 4Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 4
-8
21.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass intercepted Preston Hodge return for 8 yds to the CSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:3179% → 91%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
21.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 10 yds to the CSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 2 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15FUMBLE
16 plays · 82 yds · 6:3713% → 13%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
13.1%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the CSU 15Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+13
12.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 13 yds to the CSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+23
13.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justin Marshall for 23 yds to the COLO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
14.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
13.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justin Marshall for 6 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
13.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+5
13.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 5 yds to the COLO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
13.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
13.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 5 yds to the COLO 33Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+4
13.4%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the COLO 29Similar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
13.3%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the COLO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
13.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 6 yds to the COLO 21Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-2
13.2%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 23Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
12.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+19
11.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 19 yds to the COLO 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
12.7%
Keegan Holles run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 7 Keegan Holles fumbled, recovered by COLO LaVonta Bentley L. Bentley return for 2 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 36 yds · 1:5394% → 95%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
5.9%
Isaiah Augustave run for 4 yds to the COLO 11Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+13
5.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Sav'ell Smalls for 13 yds to the COLO 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
5.3%
Isaiah Augustave run for 5 yds to the COLO 29Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+14
5.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Isaiah Augustave for 14 yds Isaiah Augustave fumbled, recovered by CSU Chase Wilson C. Wilson return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17INT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:539% → 8%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+3
9.4%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the COLO 45Similar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
9.8%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the COLO 48Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
8.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
8.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:31
4TH & 12
OPP 45
+38
8.1%
Colorado Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Travis Hunter) to the COLO 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:5896% → 100%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
4.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
4.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 1 yd to the COLO 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-10
4.3%
(15:00) SANDERS, Shedeur pass to the left complete for 3 yards to WELCH, Micah caught at the COL40 and advanced to the COL49 (LARRY, Elias), out of bounds, clock 14:53. PENALTY COL Holding on HORN JR., Jimmy enforced 10 yards from the COL46 to the COL36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 19
OWN 36
+15
4.5%
Colorado State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Chase Wilson) to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
4.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 22 yds to the CSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
3.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 6 yds to the CSU 21Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+21
0.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 21 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:221% → 6%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 4 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
0.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 25Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 9 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+62
0.4%
Avery Morrow run for 62 yds to the COLO 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
0.6%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 5Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
5.7%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 4:0098% → 99%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.3%
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the COLO 27Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
2.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jr. Terrell Timmons for 10 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
2.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 15 yds to the CSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
1.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Micah Welch for no gain to the CSU 48Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-3
1.8%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by James Mitchell for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 49Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 13
OWN 49
-10
1.8%
(07:07) SANDERS, Shedeur pass deep to the left complete for 39 yards to HORN JR., Jimmy caught at the CSU12 and advanced to the CSU12 (LARRY, Elias), clock 06:55. PENALTY COL Holding on HOUSTON, Phillip enforced 10 yards from the COL49 to the COL39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 23
OWN 39
+13
1.8%
Micah Welch run for 13 yds to the CSU 48Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
1.5%
Mark Vassett punt for 43 yds , Lavon Brown returns for no gain to the CSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21FUMBLE
14 plays · 69 yds · 2:512% → 1%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+15
2.3%
Colorado Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig) to the CSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
2.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
2.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 7 yds to the CSU 36Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+5
2.3%
(05:04) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass short up the middle incomplete intended for GOFFNEY, Dylan thrown to the CSU40, clock 05:03. PENALTY COL Pass Interference on HODGE, Preston enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the CSU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
2.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
2.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+22
2.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 22 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
2.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 5 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 5
OPP 32
-6
2.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 6 yards to the COLO 38Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+16
2.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 16 yds to the COLO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
2.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 3 yds to the COLO 19Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-7
2.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for a loss of 7 yards to the COLO 26 Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi fumbled, recovered by COLO B.J. Green B. Green return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
0.9%
(03:00) SANDERS, Shedeur pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUNTER, Travis broken up by ESSISSIMA, Isaiah at the COL50, clock 02:53. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on ESSISSIMA, Isaiah enforced 15 yards to the COL41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:5499% → 100%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
0.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Charlie Offerdahl for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 40Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+10
0.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
50
+12
0.4%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 12 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
0.4%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 4 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
0.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
0.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
0.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:572% → 2%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
1.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 3 yds to the CSU 37Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
1.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 6 yds to the CSU 43Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
1.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+5
1.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 5 yds to the CSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
1.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:11
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 2 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q2 0:58
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 34 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q2 5:51
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com