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UNCO

Northern Colorado 17 at Colorado State 38

CSU
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUNCO aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUNCO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+0.2CSU 97.4%Jordan Noyes 20 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q1 7:14
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:14 · Jordan Noyes 20 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior+45.0Home team on offense+2.2Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:23: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 0:29: Keegan Holles run for 4 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:13: Peter Costelli pass complete to Brayden Munroe for 50 yds for a TD (Hunter Green KICK) — UNCO win probability +3.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UNCO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:01: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 40 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:11: Hunter Green 53 yd FG GOOD — UNCO win probability +2.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: UNCO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6UNCO made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:18UNCO 4th & 5 at UNCO 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:51UNCO 4th & 6 at UNCO 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:14CSU 4th & 2 at UNCO 2, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:08UNCO 4th & 7 at CSU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:52UNCO 4th & 2 at CSU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−0.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:42CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:24CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 26, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:32UNCO 4th & 6 at UNCO 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:59UNCO 4th & 9 at midfield, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:18CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 25, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:20UNCO 4th & 1 at UNCO 29, down 17
    Close callPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:20CSU 4th & 8 at UNCO 42, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:24UNCO 4th & 3 at UNCO 9, down 17
    Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:52CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 40, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:06UNCO 4th & 1 at CSU 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:11UNCO 4th & 6 at CSU 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.0%
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UNCO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:45UNCO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:23CSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:29CSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:13UNCO Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:01CSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:43CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCODrive 1PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:422% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.7%
Peter Costelli pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.7%
Vann Schield run for 1 yd to the UNCO 26Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
97.6%
Peter Costelli pass complete to Brayden Munroe for 4 yds to the UNCO 30Similar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+78
97.5%
Hunter Green punt for 48 yds , Tory Horton returns for 78 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:213% → 3%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
97.5%
Peter Costelli run for 3 yds to the UNCO 33Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
97.4%
Peter Costelli pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+8
97.4%
Peter Costelli run for 8 yds to the UNCO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
97.4%
Darius Stewart run for 2 yds to the UNCO 43Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
97.3%
Darius Stewart run for 2 yds to the UNCO 45Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
97.2%
Peter Costelli pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
97.2%
Hunter Green punt for 41 yds, downed at the CSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3FG
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:2597% → 97%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+30
97.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 30 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
97.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 12 yds to the UNCO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+42
97.2%
Justin Marshall run for 42 yds to the UNCO 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
97.1%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the UNCO 2Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
97.1%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the UNCO 2Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
97.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
97.4%
Jordan Noyes 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 3:063% → 4%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.9%
Vann Schield run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNCO 24Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+25
96.8%
Peter Costelli pass complete to Cash Cheeks for 25 yds to the UNCO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
96.6%
Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the CSU 48Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
96.5%
Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-3
96.4%
Vann Schield run for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 48Similar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
96.4%
Hunter Green punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:4997% → 97%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+22
97.1%
Tory Horton run for 22 yds to the CSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
97.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 5 yds to the CSU 37Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-4
97.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Michael Jordan Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 33Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
97.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justin Marshall for no gain Justin Marshall fumbled, recovered by UNCO Sam Iongi-Amituanai S. Iongi-Amituanai return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 6TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:204% → 5%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
95.9%
Peter Costelli pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
95.9%
Darius Stewart run for 3 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+14
95.9%
Peter Costelli pass complete to Charles Garrison for 14 yds to the CSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
95.6%
COSTELLI, Peter pass to the right incomplete intended for MUNROE, Brayden thrown to the CSU9, clock 00:50. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on MORRIS, Dominic enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the CSU9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
94.8%
Fisher Clements 9 Yd pass from Peter Costelli (Hunter Green Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:1595% → 97%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
95.3%
Keegan Holles run for 18 yds to the CSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
95.5%
Keegan Holles run for 16 yds to the UNCO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
95.5%
Keegan Holles run for 7 yds to the UNCO 34Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+5
95.4%
Keegan Holles run for 5 yds to the UNCO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
95.2%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the UNCO 26Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+10
95.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 10 yds to the UNCO 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
94.9%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds to the UNCO 11Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
94.8%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the UNCO 11Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+9
94.5%
Keegan Holles run for 9 yds to the UNCO 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 3:315% → 6%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.1%
Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the UNCO 27Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
95.0%
Peter Costelli run for 1 yd to the UNCO 28Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+22
95.1%
Peter Costelli pass complete to Charles Garrison for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
50
+2
94.5%
David Afari run for 2 yds to the CSU 48Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
94.3%
Peter Costelli run for 1 yd to the CSU 47Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+5
94.3%
David Afari run for 5 yds to the CSU 42Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
94.3%
Peter Costelli pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
16 plays · 58 yds · 6:2296% → 97%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
96.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 2 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
96.2%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 47Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+12
96.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 12 yds to the UNCO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
96.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
96.0%
Keegan Holles run for 9 yds to the UNCO 32Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+9
95.2%
Keegan Holles run for 9 yds to the UNCO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
95.5%
Keegan Holles run for 8 yds to the UNCO 15Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+4
95.4%
Damian Henderson II run for 4 yds to the UNCO 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
95.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Peter Montini for 1 yd to the UNCO 10Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+8
94.9%
Damian Henderson II run for 8 yds to the UNCO 2Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
92.5%
Damian Henderson II run for 1 yd to the UNCO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.9%
Damian Henderson II run for no gain to the UNCO 1Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
93.8%
Damian Henderson II run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNCO 4Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.6%
Keegan Holles run for 4 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
96.3%
David Afari run for 4 yds to the UNCO 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1897% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:42
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Paddy Turner punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Brayden Munroe at the UNCO 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 12TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 2:274% → 7%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
96.5%
Vann Schield run for 5 yds to the UNCO 27Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
96.4%
Peter Costelli run for 4 yds to the UNCO 31Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+5
96.3%
Darius Stewart run for 5 yds to the UNCO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
96.4%
Peter Costelli pass complete to Kobe Kossak for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
50
+50
92.8%
Peter Costelli pass complete to Brayden Munroe for 50 yds for a TD (Hunter Green KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4494% → 93%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
93.6%
Keegan Holles run for 4 yds to the CSU 21Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+5
93.5%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds to the CSU 26Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 1
OWN 26
0
93.3%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the CSU 26Similar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
92.9%
Paddy Turner punt for 45 yds, downed at the UNCO 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:457% → 6%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
93.0%
David Afari run for 4 yds to the UNCO 33Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
92.9%
Peter Costelli pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
93.2%
Peter Costelli pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
93.6%
Hunter Green punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:2293% → 98%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
93.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 31 yds to the UNCO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
93.7%
Justin Marshall run for 9 yds to the UNCO 40Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+40
97.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 40 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:024% → 3%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.5%
Vann Schield run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNCO 24Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
96.8%
Peter Costelli run for 8 yds to the UNCO 32Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
96.6%
Peter Costelli run for 6 yds to the UNCO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.6%
Peter Costelli pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
96.7%
Peter Costelli pass complete to Jordan Riles for 11 yds to the UNCO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
96.5%
Vann Schield run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 9
50
0
96.5%
Peter Costelli pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 9
50
0
96.6%
Peter Costelli pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 9
50
0
96.9%
Hunter Green punt for 32 yds, downed at the CSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3097% → 97%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
97.3%
Damian Henderson II run for no gain to the CSU 18Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
97.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Damian Henderson II for 7 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
97.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:503% → 3%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
97.0%
Darius Stewart run for 3 yds to the UNCO 23Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
97.0%
Darius Stewart run for 5 yds to the UNCO 28Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
96.9%
Peter Costelli pass complete to Darius Stewart for 1 yd to the UNCO 29Similar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
97.0%
Hunter Green punt for 59 yds, downed at the CSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:4797% → 98%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
97.3%
Caleb Goodie run for 6 yds to the CSU 18Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 4
OWN 18
0
97.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:31
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+6
97.3%
Damian Henderson II run for 6 yds to the CSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
97.4%
Damian Henderson II run for 22 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
97.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Damian Henderson II for 6 yds to the UNCO 48Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
97.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 3 yds to the UNCO 45Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
97.9%
Kobe Johnson run for 1 yd to the UNCO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
98.0%
Kobe Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNCO 46Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+4
98.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Kobe Johnson for 4 yds to the UNCO 42Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
97.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
97.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi punt for 38 yds, downed at the UNCO 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:562% → 2%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
97.7%
Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the UNCO 4Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+7
97.8%
Vann Schield run for 7 yds to the UNCO 11Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 1
OWN 11
-2
97.6%
Peter Costelli run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNCO 9Similar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
97.6%
Hunter Green punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2698% → 98%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.1%
Kobe Johnson run for no gain to the CSU 40Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
98.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
98.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Kobe Johnson for no gain to the CSU 40Similar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Paddy Turner punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brayden Munroe at the UNCO 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 22FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:363% → 5%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+32
97.4%
Peter Costelli pass complete to Brayden Munroe for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
50
+4
97.1%
David Afari run for 4 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
97.1%
Peter Costelli pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+5
97.2%
Peter Costelli pass complete to Kobe Kossak for 5 yds to the CSU 41Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+1
97.3%
Hank Gibbs run for 1 yd to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
97.9%
Vann Schield run for 1 yd to the CSU 39Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+6
97.9%
Peter Costelli run for 6 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-3
97.7%
Peter Costelli run for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 36Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+53
95.5%
Hunter Green 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:2399% → 100%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
98.7%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the UNCO 40Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+11
98.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 11 yds to the UNCO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
98.8%
Avery Morrow run for 11 yds to the UNCO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
99.0%
Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the UNCO 12Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+6
99.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 6 yds to the UNCO 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
99.2%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNCO 8Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.8%
Avery Morrow run for 8 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:241% → 1%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.4%
Jonah Chong run for 1 yd to the UNCO 21Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+14
99.4%
Jonah Chong run for 14 yds to the UNCO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.4%
Jonah Chong pass complete to Charles Garrison for 4 yds to the UNCO 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:01
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 40 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q3 12:13
Peter Costelli pass complete to Brayden Munroe for 50 yds for a TD (Hunter Green KICK)
-3.6
TD · Q2 0:29
Keegan Holles run for 4 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com