Oregon State

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0829th
  Defense+0.2313th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.6%56th
  Defense48.0%7th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.148th
  Defense+1.1877th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1985th
  Defense+0.209th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense−0.066th
  Defense+0.2620th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.6%55th
  Defense53.7%8th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense30.9%43rd
  Defense32.8%24th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3488th
  Defense3.399th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.0%94th
  Defense14.8%18th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.3%64th
  Defense13.4%12th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Oregon State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   IDST
2. W
   SDSU
3. L
   ORE
4. W
   PUR
5. W
   CSU
6. L
   NEV
7. L
   UNLV
8. L
   CAL
9. L
   SJSU
10. L
    AF
11. W
    WSU
12. L
    BOIS

Bars above the line: better than expected for Oregon State.

Players, 2024

1. Gevani McCoyQB221 plays · +0.190 pts/play · 103rd of 232 QBs
   0.79WAR0.31 to 1.24
2. Anthony HankersonRB205 plays · +0.110 pts/play · 43rd of 373 RBs
   0.42WAR0.30 to 0.56
3. Ben GulbransonQB111 plays · +0.144 pts/play · 156th of 232 QBs
   0.30WAR0.11 to 0.50
4. Jam GriffinRB49 plays · +0.119 pts/play · 235th of 373 RBs
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.14
5. Jermaine Terry IITE24 plays · +0.196 pts/play · 28th of 221 TEs
   0.09WAR0.03 to 0.14
6. Josh GreenP31 plays · +0.097 pts/play · 54th of 106 punters
   0.06WAR0.01 to 0.10
7. Trent WalkerWR64 plays · +0.041 pts/play · 247th of 452 WRs
   0.05WAR−0.05 to 0.16

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Oregon State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  62762773rd of 131Roster talent: 627, 73rd of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16816871st of 131Recruiting: 168, 71st of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  7%7%127th of 130Returning production: 7%, 127th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −6.7−6.795th of 131SP+ rating: −6.7, 95th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Oregon State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.12 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs PURQ2 0:03 4th & 1 at PUR 12, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
2. vs UNLVQ4 5:05 4th & 17 at ORST 22, down 9Went for it; the numbers favored punting−2.0 pts
3. vs WSUQ4 4:14 4th & 8 at WSU 20, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.6 pts
4. at AFQ3 13:09 4th & 1 at ORST 34, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
5. at BOISQ4 7:53 4th & 10 at ORST 41, down 9Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.2 pts
6. at SDSUQ2 6:25 4th & 2 at ORST 43, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
7. at NEVQ2 5:53 4th & 4 at NEV 4, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. at BOISQ4 2:57 4th & 8 at ORST 32, down 9Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

79th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Oregon State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   IDST
2. W

   SDSU
3. L

   ORE
4. W

   PUR
5. W

   CSU
6. L

   NEV
7. L

   UNLV
8. L

   CAL
9. L

   SJSU
10. L

    AF
11. W

    WSU
12. L

    BOIS

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Oregon State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.25
• Possession & field position+0.14
• Clock+0.17
• Timeouts−0.22
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.33

Game by game

• IDSTW 38-15 vs IDST96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +7
• SDSUW 21-0 at SDSU58% → 99%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +47, Clock +1
• OREL 14-49 vs ORE10% → 0%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −15
• PURW 38-21 vs PUR47% → 99%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +46, Timeouts −1
• CSUW 39-31 vs CSU71% → 26%Before kickoff +21 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts −23
• NEVL 37-42 at NEV55% → 37%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −18: Possession & field position +4, Scoreboard −2
• UNLVL 25-33 vs UNLV32% → 9%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −43, Possession & field position +2
• CALL 7-44 at CAL16% → 0%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −20
• SJSUL 13-24 vs SJSU57% → 4%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −53: Scoreboard −53, Clock −3
• AFL 0-28 at AF62% → 0%Before kickoff +12 · On the field −62: Scoreboard −57, Timeouts +1
• WSUW 41-38 vs WSU22% → 83%Before kickoff −28 · On the field +60: Scoreboard +16, Possession & field position +3
• BOISL 18-34 at BOIS11% → 0%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −15, Clock +1

Points of win probability, from Oregon State's side.

Closest call

ORST 41-34 COLO (2018) - Oregon State dropped to a 0.7% win probability before pulling it out.