Oregon State

Profile vs. FBS, 2015

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0221st
  Defense+0.239th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense40.2%25th
  Defense51.4%1st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1220th
  Defense+1.0987th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0441st
  Defense+0.216th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense0.0017th
  Defense+0.3014th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.9%54th
  Defense54.5%4th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense25.6%6th
  Defense42.3%2nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7836th
  Defense3.286th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense21.4%27th
  Defense13.6%1st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.8%65th
  Defense2.5%79th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2015

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Oregon State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   WEB
2. L
   MICH
3. W
   SJSU
4. L
   STAN
5. L
   ARIZ
6. L
   WSU
7. L
   COLO
8. L
   UTAH
9. L
   UCLA
10. L
    CAL
11. L
    WASH
12. L
    ORE

Bars above the line: better than expected for Oregon State.

Players, 2015

1. Nick MitchellQB113 plays · +0.119 pts/play · 169th of 205 QBs
   0.25WAR0.06 to 0.43
2. Seth CollinsDB61 plays · +0.141 pts/play
   0.16WAR0.10 to 0.21
3. Jordan VillaminWR35 plays · +0.206 pts/play · 142nd of 411 WRs
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.20
4. Garrett OwensPK11 plays · +0.436 pts/play · 81st of 115 kickers
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.12
5. Storm WoodsRB33 plays · +0.130 pts/play · 223rd of 333 RBs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.11
6. Victor Bolden Jr.WR74 plays · +0.050 pts/play · 280th of 411 WRs
   0.07WAR0.00 to 0.14
7. Paul LucasWR18 plays · +0.026 pts/play · 392nd of 411 WRs
   0.01WAR−0.01 to 0.03
8. Ryan NallRB6 plays · +0.039 pts/play · 312th of 333 RBs
   0.00WAR0.00 to 0.01

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Oregon State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2015

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  54554555th of 128Roster talent: 545, 55th of 128 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16716763rd of 128Recruiting: 167, 63rd of 128 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  43%43%99th of 127Returning production: 43%, 99th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −10.1−10.1101st of 128SP+ rating: −10.1, 101st of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 128 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Oregon State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.13 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at WSUQ2 14:48 4th & 15 at ORST 20, down 18Went for it; the numbers favored punting−2.3 pts
2. vs COLOQ4 7:38 4th & 10 at COLO 31, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.9 pts
3. vs STANQ3 10:20 4th & 2 at ORST 47, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
4. vs COLOQ4 2:28 4th & 10 at ORST 25, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
5. at MICHQ2 1:12 4th & 13 at MICH 49, down 3Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.9 pts
6. vs SJSUQ2 12:31 4th & 3 at midfield, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. at CALQ2 4:37 4th & 1 at ORST 44, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. vs SJSUQ3 13:09 4th & 4 at ORST 46, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2015

96th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Oregon State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   WEB
2. L

   MICH
3. W

   SJSU
4. L

   STAN
5. L

   ARIZ
6. L

   WSU
7. L

   COLO
8. L

   UTAH
9. L

   UCLA
10. L

    CAL
11. L

    WASH
12. L

    ORE

What moved it, 2015

Every game starts at Oregon State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.40
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock−0.04
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.52

Game by game

• WEBW 26-7 vs WEB73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts −1
• MICHL 7-35 at MICH16% → 0%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −20
• SJSUW 35-21 vs SJSU63% → 99%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +35, Timeouts +2
• STANL 24-42 vs STAN11% → 2%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −20, Clock −1
• ARIZL 7-44 at ARIZ16% → 0%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −20
• WSUL 31-52 at WSU26% → 0%Before kickoff −24 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −29, Clock +1
• COLOL 13-17 vs COLO53% → 6%Before kickoff +3 · On the field −47: Scoreboard −49, Clock −3
• UTAHL 12-27 at UTAH7% → 1%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −12
• UCLAL 0-41 vs UCLA12% → 0%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −16, Clock −1
• CALL 24-54 at CAL9% → 0%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −12
• WASHL 7-52 vs WASH14% → 0%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −13: Scoreboard −19
• OREL 42-52 at ORE3% → 3%Before kickoff −47 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −8

Points of win probability, from Oregon State's side.

Closest call

ORST 41-34 COLO (2018) - Oregon State dropped to a 0.7% win probability before pulling it out.