Oregon State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1235th
  Defense+0.2118th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.7%50th
  Defense43.1%44th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1847th
  Defense+1.2721st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0631st
  Defense+0.273rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1735th
  Defense+0.1954th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.7%51st
  Defense47.7%46th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.0%33rd
  Defense33.5%44th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.6728th
  Defense3.1718th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.2%40th
  Defense18.8%39th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.4%90th
  Defense2.2%63rd

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Oregon State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   PRST
2. W
   HAW
3. W
   SDSU
4. L
   USC
5. W
   COLO
6. L
   UTAH
7. L
   STAN
8. L
   CAL
9. L
   WSU
10. W
    ASU
11. L
    WASH
12. L
    ORE

Bars above the line: better than expected for Oregon State.

Players, 2014

1. Sean MannionQB361 plays · +0.178 pts/play · 88th of 199 QBs
   1.21WAR0.61 to 1.86
2. Terron WardRB137 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 54th of 350 RBs
   0.33WAR0.22 to 0.43
3. Storm WoodsRB114 plays · +0.118 pts/play · 90th of 350 RBs
   0.25WAR0.16 to 0.34
4. Jordan VillaminWR40 plays · +0.206 pts/play · 115th of 469 WRs
   0.15WAR0.08 to 0.22
5. Victor Bolden Jr.WR89 plays · +0.061 pts/play · 200th of 469 WRs
   0.10WAR0.00 to 0.20
6. Keith KostolP51 plays · +0.044 pts/play · 68th of 94 punters
   0.04WAR−0.03 to 0.11
7. Garrett OwensPK5 plays · +0.436 pts/play · 102nd of 114 kickers
   0.04WAR0.03 to 0.05
8. Richard MullaneyWR25 plays · +0.082 pts/play · 375th of 469 WRs
   0.04WAR0.01 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Oregon State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Oregon State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.20 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs ASUQ4 2:52 4th & 1 at ASU 45, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−9.8 pts
2. vs UTAHQ4 7:41 4th & 7 at UTAH 43, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
3. vs UTAHQ2 14:09 4th & 1 at ORST 28, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
4. vs CALQ3 14:54 4th & 3 at ORST 48, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
5. vs ASUQ2 10:57 4th & 6 at ASU 35, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
6. at HAWQ2 6:12 4th & 3 at HAW 10, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
7. vs OREQ2 13:01 4th & 1 at ORST 32, down 16Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. vs OREQ1 3:18 4th & 1 at ORST 46, down 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

107th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Oregon State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   PRST
2. W

   HAW
3. W

   SDSU
4. L

   USC
5. W

   COLO
6. L

   UTAH
7. L

   STAN
8. L

   CAL
9. L

   WSU
10. W

    ASU
11. L

    WASH
12. L

    ORE

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Oregon State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.05
• Possession & field position−0.02
• Clock+0.14
• Timeouts−0.16
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.10

Game by game

• PRSTW 29-14 vs PRST98% → 99%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +5
• HAWW 38-30 at HAW82% → 96%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +29, Clock +2
• SDSUW 28-7 vs SDSU73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +30
• USCL 10-35 at USC17% → 0%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −20
• COLOW 36-31 at COLO70% → 91%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +39, Clock +2
• UTAHL 23-29 vs UTAH55% → 10%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −45, Timeouts −19
• STANL 14-38 at STAN15% → 0%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −19
• CALL 31-45 vs CAL61% → 3%Before kickoff +11 · On the field −58: Scoreboard −58, Clock −2
• WSUL 32-39 vs WSU70% → 9%Before kickoff +20 · On the field −61: Scoreboard −52, Clock −1
• ASUW 35-27 vs ASU30% → 97%Before kickoff −20 · On the field +67: Scoreboard +45, Timeouts +3
• WASHL 13-37 at WASH41% → 0%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts +1
• OREL 19-47 vs ORE12% → 0%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −17

Points of win probability, from Oregon State's side.

Closest call

ORST 41-34 COLO (2018) - Oregon State dropped to a 0.7% win probability before pulling it out.