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ORST

Oregon State 14 at Stanford 38

STAN
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:10 · Keith Kostol punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Pregame prior+24.5Home team on offense+7.5Score differential+2.3Garbage-time factor+0.3Blowout margin+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:03: Chris Brown run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK) — ORST win probability +4.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:34: Kevin Hogan run for 37 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK) — STAN win probability +2.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:06: Kevin Hogan pass complete to Jordan Pratt for 37 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK) — STAN win probability +3.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:49: Patrick Skov run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK) — STAN win probability +6.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. PUNT · Q3 12:04: Keith Kostol punt for 47 yds , Ty Montgomery returns for 50 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK) — STAN win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 11:21ORST 4th & 20 at ORST 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:05ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:17ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:25ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.8%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:10ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:32STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:10ORST 4th & 6 at STAN 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:25ORST 4th & 13 at ORST 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:02STAN 4th & 1 at ORST 9, up 21
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%−1.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:14ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:32STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 35, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:53ORST 4th & 1 at STAN 5, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:41STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 10, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:37ORST 4th & 22 at ORST 37, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:33STAN 4th & 6 at ORST 16, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:54ORST 4th & 13 at ORST 42, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:59STAN 4th & 23 at STAN 37, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:24STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 38, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:45STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:03ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:34STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:06STAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:49STAN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:54ORST Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0085% → 85%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 11 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
84.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 3 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
84.8%
Barry Sanders run for 8 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
84.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 8 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
84.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
84.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 45 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Stanf Kevin Hogan for a 1ST down Kevin Hogan run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
84.4%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty MontgomerySimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+41
85.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 42 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:1815% → 15%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.8%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Connor Hamlett) to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
84.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Caleb Smith) to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
84.8%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Terron WardSimilar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
84.8%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
84.9%
Keith Kostol punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ty Montgomery at the Stanf 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3INT
9 plays · 32 yds · 4:1285% → 85%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
85.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 9 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
85.0%
Remound Wright run for no gain to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+14
84.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-11
85.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the OrgSt 41 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Stanf Ty MontgomerySimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 21
OPP 41
+13
84.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 13 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+9
84.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Jeff Trojan for 9 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
84.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Jordan Pratt, broken up by Steven NelsonSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-2
84.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+1
84.6%
Kevin Hogan pass intercepted Ryan Murphy return for 1 yd to the OrgSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:4016% → 16%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
84.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 9 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+2
84.1%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
84.1%
Victor Bolden run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
84.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Ricky Ortiz for 9 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
83.8%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-2
83.8%
Terron Ward run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+9
84.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 9 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
83.8%
Keith Kostol punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ty Montgomery at the Stanf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:4384% → 84%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
84.0%
Remound Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 16Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+15
83.7%
Kevin Hogan pass intercepted Michael Doctor return for 15 yds to the Stanf 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 2:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.3%
Chris Brown run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1181% → 84%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
81.0%
Barry Sanders run for 27 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
81.7%
Barry Sanders run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+5
81.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Barry Sanders for 5 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
84.3%
Kevin Hogan run for 37 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0817% → 16%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.3%
Victor Bolden run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-9
83.2%
Sean Mannion sacked by Blake Martinez for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+7
83.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Chris Brown for 7 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
83.8%
Keith Kostol punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:5484% → 88%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
50
-5
84.2%
Michael Rector run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 45Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+15
83.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 15 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
84.2%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
84.1%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+37
87.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Jordan Pratt for 37 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:5014% → 13%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.5%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.6%
Terron Ward run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
86.4%
Terron Ward run for no gain to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
86.7%
Terron Ward run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
86.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for no gain to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
86.8%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Connor HamlettSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
87.0%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Connor Hamlett, broken up by Jordan RichardsSimilar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
87.2%
Keith Kostol punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2888% → 87%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
87.8%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-1
87.8%
Remound Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-5
87.2%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Kyle Murphy) to the Stanf 29Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 14
OWN 29
0
87.1%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty MontgomerySimilar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
86.7%
Ben Rhyne punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:0513% → 13%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
87.0%
Chris Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+13
87.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 13 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
86.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 10 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
86.6%
Sean Mannion run for 4 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
86.3%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Terron WardSimilar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
86.7%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Terron Ward, broken up by Henry AndersonSimilar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
87.1%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:5688% → 95%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
88.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Greg Taboada for 32 yds Greg Taboada fumbled, forced by Ryan Murphy, recovered by Stanf Devon Cajuste for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
88.6%
Ty Montgomery run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
88.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 10 yds to the OrgSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.8%
Patrick Skov run for no gain to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.4%
Patrick Skov run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 12 yds · 1:006% → 6%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
94.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 8 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
94.2%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Terron WardSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+7
94.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 7 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
94.3%
Sean Mannion sacked by Luke Kaumatule and Blake Martinez for a loss of 10 yards to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 20
OWN 20
-5
94.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Sean Harlow) to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 25
OWN 15
+4
94.2%
Terron Ward run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 21
OWN 19
+8
94.3%
Terron Ward run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 13
OWN 27
+8
94.2%
Keith Kostol punt for 42 yds , Ty Montgomery returns for 8 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 1:1396% → 95%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
95.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
95.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 5 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+27
95.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 27 yds to the OrgSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
96.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (NA) to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 5
OPP 13
-5
95.8%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Dylan Wynn for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
95.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jaylynn Bailey) to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 1
OPP 9
0
95.5%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty MontgomerySimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
95.4%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Greg TaboadaSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+26
95.2%
Jordan Williamson 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
94.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · -22 yds · 2:415% → 1%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.0%
Terron Ward run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
95.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Mitchell) to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+12
95.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 12 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-13
95.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Dustin Stanton) to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 21
OWN 14
-11
95.5%
Sean Mannion sacked by Kevin Anderson for a loss of 11 yards to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 32
OWN 3
+50
99.2%
Keith Kostol punt for 47 yds , Ty Montgomery returns for 50 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:311% → 1%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.1%
Terron Ward run for no gain to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
99.2%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+19
99.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 19 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.2%
Terron Ward run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
99.2%
Terron Ward run for no gain to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
99.3%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+10
99.3%
Keith Kostol punt for 38 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for 10 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2899% → 100%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
99.4%
Barry Sanders run for 1 yd to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+1
99.5%
Barry Sanders run for 1 yd to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Kevin Hogan run for no gain to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+4
99.6%
TEAM punt blocked by Ricky Ortiz Caleb Saulo return for 4 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:071% → 1%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.4%
Terron Ward run for 5 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+5
99.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 5 yds to the Stanf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
99.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 7 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+2
99.4%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds to the Stanf 5Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
99.5%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Alex CarterSimilar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
99.3%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Alex CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
99.7%
Remound Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 4Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+3
99.7%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+3
99.7%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Stanf 10Similar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 5
OWN 10
+20
99.8%
Ben Rhyne punt for 61 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 20 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-9
99.8%
Sean Mannion sacked by Blake Lueders for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 19
OWN 40
+7
99.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 7 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 12
OWN 47
-10
99.8%
Sean Mannion sacked by Blake Martinez for a loss of 10 yards to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 22
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Keith Kostol punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:27100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.8%
Ty Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Stanf 21Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+17
99.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 17 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
99.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Michael Doctor) to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
99.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 23 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Remound Wright run for no gain to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty MontgomerySimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+4
99.9%
Kevin Hogan run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
99.9%
Jordan Williamson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:260% → 0%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Victor Bolden run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
99.9%
Chris Brown run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
99.9%
Sean Mannion sacked by Nate Lohn for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 39 Sean Mannion fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Sean Mannion , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+3
99.9%
Chris Brown run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Keith Kostol punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ty Montgomery at the Stanf 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+34
99.9%
Kelsey Young run for 34 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.9%
Kelsey Young run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-7
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Stanf Ricky SealeSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-10
99.9%
STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kyle Murphy) to the Stanf 42Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 18
OWN 42
-5
99.9%
STANFORD Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (NA) to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 23
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q4 5:59
4TH & 23
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Ben Rhyne punt for 40 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 5 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 26TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:010% → 1%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Xavier HawkinsSimilar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
99.9%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Rahmel Dockery for 15 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Jacob Wark for 4 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+52
99.9%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 52 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Damien Haskins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.7%
Kelsey Young run for 2 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+1
99.7%
Kelsey Young run for 1 yd to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+10
99.8%
Evan Crower pass complete to Rollins Stallworth for 10 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Ricky Seale run for no gain to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.8%
Ricky Seale run for 3 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Evan Crower pass incomplete to Conner CraneSimilar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Ben Rhyne punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Rahmel Dockery at the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Damien HaskinsSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Luke Del Rio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.6%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 16 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:49
Patrick Skov run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)
+6.6
TD · Q1 2:03
Chris Brown run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)
-4.4
TD · Q2 12:06
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Jordan Pratt for 37 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com