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ORE

Oregon 47 at Oregon State 19

ORST
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:30 · Keith Kostol punt for 46 yds , Johnathan Loyd returns for 15 yds to the Oregn 42 OREGON Penalty, Illegal Block (32 Yards) to the Oregn 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Home team on offense−54.6Pregame prior−4.5Score differential−41.4Garbage-time factor−22.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−14.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:32: Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK) — ORE win probability +3.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:22: Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 77 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK) — ORE win probability +3.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:46: Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 20 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +2.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:19: Marcus Mariota run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK) — ORE win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:08: Storm Woods run for 3 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +1.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 7 of 11ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:24ORST 4th & 1 at ORE 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:01ORE 4th & 7 at ORST 13, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    81.9%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:18ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 46, down 9
    Close callPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:01ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 32, down 16
    Close callPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:52ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 28, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:30ORST 4th & 1 at ORE 45, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:38ORE 4th & 19 at ORST 49, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:14ORST 4th & 1 at ORE 20, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:05ORST 4th & 16 at ORST 30, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:03ORE 4th & 5 at ORST 5, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:05ORST 4th & 5 at ORE 30, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:19ORE 4th & 1 at ORST 1, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:35ORE 4th & 24 at ORE 41, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:30ORST 4th & 11 at ORST 25, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:55ORE 4th & 1 at midfield, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.3%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:30ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 27, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:27ORST 4th & 28 at ORE 35, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:27ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:32ORE Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:22ORE Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:48ORE Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:46ORST Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:19ORE Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:08ORST Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:45ORE Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 2:2488% → 88%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
11.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
11.7%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+9
11.8%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
11.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 3 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+8
12.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 8 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
12.1%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
12.2%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+8
12.4%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
12.3%
Charles Nelson 29 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:4613% → 14%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
12.6%
Sean Mannion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+18
12.7%
Storm Woods run for 18 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
13.0%
Storm Woods run for no gain to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
13.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 9 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
13.6%
Storm Woods run for no gain to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-1
13.7%
Damien Haskins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:1586% → 87%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
13.6%
Royce Freeman run for 18 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
13.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 18 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
13.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 17 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
13.6%
Marcus Mariota run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+1
13.7%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
13.9%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
13.4%
Matt Wogan 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:2814% → 15%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
13.9%
Storm Woods run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+5
14.1%
Storm Woods run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
14.3%
Storm Woods run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
14.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 4 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
14.8%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
15.1%
Sean Mannion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+7
14.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 7 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+1
14.6%
Keith Kostol punt for 40 yds , Charles Nelson returns for 1 yd to the Oregn 47 OREGON ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:4686% → 89%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
14.4%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+14
14.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 14 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
14.2%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
14.3%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+7
14.4%
Marcus Mariota run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
14.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 7 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+5
14.4%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
14.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 8 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 2
OPP 27
-5
14.5%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Cameron Hunt) to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+17
14.6%
Marcus Mariota run for 17 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
14.6%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 14:32
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
10.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0112% → 12%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
12.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 5 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
12.2%
Sean Mannion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+4
12.0%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
12.1%
Keith Kostol punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:3089% → 92%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
11.2%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
11.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+77
8.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 77 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:209% → 9%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
9.0%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
8.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
8.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Storm WoodsSimilar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
8.9%
Keith Kostol punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Johnathan Loyd at the Oregn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:0492% → 93%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
7.7%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 15
OWN 28
-2
7.6%
Charles Nelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+7
7.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 7 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+33
7.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 33 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
7.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 11 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
7.4%
Marcus Mariota run for 23 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 24 yds · 3:068% → 7%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
7.5%
Sean Mannion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
7.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Rahmel Dockery for 4 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+11
7.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 11 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
6.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Sean Harlow) to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+1
6.8%
Storm Woods run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 14
OWN 42
0
6.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Rahmel DockerySimilar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 14
OWN 42
-5
6.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 19
OWN 37
+18
6.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Rahmel Dockery for 18 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
6.6%
Tyler Anderson run for no gain to the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4394% → 93%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
6.4%
Byron Marshall run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
6.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-6
6.1%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Bud Delva for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 16
OPP 46
-3
6.2%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Cyril Noland-Lewis for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 19
OPP 49
0
6.8%
Ian Wheeler punt for 45 yds, downed at the OrgSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12END OF HALF
17 plays · 74 yds · 4:206% → 2%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+46
5.6%
Storm Woods run for 31 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
50
+5
6.2%
Sean Mannion run for 5 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
5.7%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
5.6%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 6 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
6.1%
Sean Mannion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
5.8%
Storm Woods run for 5 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+5
5.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 5 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
7.1%
Sean Mannion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
4.9%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+5
4.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 5 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+5
2.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Ricky Ortiz for 5 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-7
2.0%
Sean Mannion sacked by Christian French for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 22Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 17
OPP 22
0
2.0%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+39
2.0%
Garrett Owens 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:373% → 3%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
3.4%
Storm Woods run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+6
3.4%
Storm Woods run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
3.1%
Storm Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+4
3.1%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-9
3.4%
Sean Mannion sacked by Torrodney Prevot for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
3.2%
Keith Kostol punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Johnathan Loyd at the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14FG
8 plays · 63 yds · 1:5297% → 97%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+32
2.9%
Royce Freeman run for 32 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
2.7%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+8
2.6%
Marcus Mariota run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
2.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
2.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 3 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
2.4%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
2.5%
Marcus Mariota pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
2.6%
Matt Wogan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:573% → 4%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
3.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
3.3%
Damien Haskins run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+10
3.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 10 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
3.4%
Storm Woods run for 13 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
3.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
3.5%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+5
3.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+7
3.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 7 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
2.1%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
1.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Caleb SmithSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+20
4.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 20 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:0998% → 99%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
2.5%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cameron Hunt) to the Oregn 18Similar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+19
2.4%
Byron Marshall run for 19 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+8
2.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 8 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
2.2%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+58
2.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 58 yds to the OrgSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
1.9%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.9%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
1.9%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q3 2:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.0%
Marcus Mariota run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:541% → 3%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
1.3%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
1.2%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+15
1.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Malik Gilmore for 15 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
1.3%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
0.7%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+18
0.7%
Sean Mannion run for 8 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+23
0.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 23 yds to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.5%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:1398% → 99%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+25
1.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 25 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
1.6%
Charles Nelson run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 14
OPP 49
-6
1.6%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Lavonte Barnett for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 20
OWN 45
-4
1.1%
Marcus Mariota sacked by D.J. Alexander for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 24
OWN 41
0
1.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 33 yds, downed at the OrgSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
1.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-1
1.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
1.7%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+5
1.7%
Keith Kostol punt for 39 yds , Johnathan Loyd returns for 5 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:2999% → 100%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
1.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
0.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 2 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
0.9%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 1
50
+4
0.9%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
0.8%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+18
0.8%
Royce Freeman run for 18 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
0.7%
Kenny Bassett run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+27
0.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 27 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
0.2%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
0.2%
Luke Del Rio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+3
0.2%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+15
0.1%
Keith Kostol punt for 46 yds , Johnathan Loyd returns for 15 yds to the Oregn 42 OREGON Penalty, Illegal Block (32 Yards) to the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22SF
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
0.2%
Michael Manns run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 9Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 11
OWN 9
-3
0.2%
Michael Manns run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 6Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 14
OWN 6
0
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by Oregn for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23FUMBLE
11 plays · 25 yds · 3:030% → 0%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
0.1%
Damien Haskins run for 14 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+25
0.1%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Jacob Wark for 25 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
0.1%
Damien Haskins run for 1 yd to the Oregn 16Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
0.1%
Luke Del Rio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-6
0.1%
Tyler Anderson run for 4 yds to the Oregn 12 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 22Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 15
OPP 22
-10
0.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 25
OPP 32
-15
0.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Oregn 47Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 40
OPP 47
+12
0.1%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Tyler Anderson for 12 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 28
OPP 35
+4
0.1%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Tyler Anderson for 4 yds Tyler Anderson fumbled, forced by Issac Dixon, recovered by Oregn Justin Hollins Justin Hollins fumbled, forced by Issac Dixon, recovered by OrgSt Xavier HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:200% → 0%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
0.1%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Damien Haskins for 13 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
0.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
0.1%
Luke Del Rio pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:32
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)
-3.8
TD · Q2 12:22
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 77 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)
-3.1
TD · Q3 5:46
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 20 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com