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ORST

Oregon State 10 at USC 35

USC
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:24 · Keith Kostol punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+7.7Home team on offense+24.5Score differential+8.9Garbage-time factor+6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.8Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:57: Ryan Murphy 97 Yd Kickoff Return (Trevor Romaine Kick) — ORST win probability +2.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:16: Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 16 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK) — USC win probability +4.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:25: Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for no gain to the USC 20 — USC win probability +4.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:00: Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 48 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK) — USC win probability +9.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:29: Javorius Allen run for 17 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK) — USC win probability +7.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 10ORST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 11:29USC 4th & 7 at ORST 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:45ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:05USC 4th & 1 at USC 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:33USC 4th & 12 at USC 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:09ORST 4th & 26 at ORST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:01USC 4th & 7 at USC 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:14ORST 4th & 15 at USC 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00USC 4th & 15 at ORST 48, up 4
    Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:18ORST 4th & 9 at USC 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:13USC 4th & 4 at USC 16, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:45ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:52USC 4th & 1 at USC 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.0%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:40USC 4th & 5 at ORST 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−4.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:55ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:24ORST 4th & 17 at ORST 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:00USC 4th & 4 at ORST 44, up 18
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:00ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 38, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:02USC 4th & 1 at midfield, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.7%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:27ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 39, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:11USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:57ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:16USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:00USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:29USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:02USC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 3:2683% → 82%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
83.2%
Javorius Allen run for 5 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
83.2%
Kessler, Cody pass incomplete to Smith, JuJu, PENALTY OREGONST pass interference (Scott, Larry) 4 yards to the USC32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
83.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 1 yd to the USC 33Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
82.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 5 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+16
82.8%
Javorius Allen run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
82.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Randall TelferSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
82.8%
USC Penalty, False Start (Viane Talamaivao) to the USC 49Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 15
OWN 49
-5
82.7%
USC Penalty, False Start (Toa Lobendahn) to the USC 44Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 20
OWN 44
-5
82.7%
USC Penalty, False Start (Viane Talamaivao) to the USC 39Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 25
OWN 39
+9
82.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 9 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 16
OWN 48
+9
82.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 9 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
82.3%
Kris Albarado punt for 34 yds, downed at the OrgSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:3218% → 19%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
82.2%
Storm Woods run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+15
82.0%
Storm Woods run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
81.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 7 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+12
81.6%
Terron Ward run for 12 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
81.4%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Terron WardSimilar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
81.2%
Xavier Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 11
50
-1
81.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
81.4%
Keith Kostol punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3281% → 81%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
81.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 2 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+6
81.2%
Javorius Allen run for 6 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+1
80.9%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the USC 27Similar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
80.5%
Kris Albarado punt for 57 yds , Steven Nelson returns for no gain to the OrgSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4DOWNS TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:4919% → 18%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
80.7%
Terron Ward run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
80.5%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Terron WardSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+10
80.7%
Mannion, Sean pass complete to Villamin, Jordan for 7 yards to the OREGONST27, PENALTY USC holding (Hawkins, Chris) 10 yards to the OREGONST30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
80.3%
Terron Ward run for no gain to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+31
82.5%
Sean Mannion pass intercepted for a TD Su'a Cravens return for 31 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:1381% → 79%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
80.5%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-8
80.2%
Cody Kessler sacked by Dylan Wynn for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 33Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 18
OWN 33
+6
79.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 6 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
79.2%
Kris Albarado punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:0721% → 21%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
79.2%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
78.6%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
50
-2
77.7%
Sean Mannion run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 48 Sean Mannion fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Sean MannionSimilar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-14
78.1%
Sean Mannion sacked by Leonard Williams for a loss of 14 yards to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 26
OWN 34
0
78.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Storm WoodsSimilar
Q1 1:09
4TH & 26
OWN 34
+9
79.0%
Keith Kostol punt for 37 yds , Nelson Agholor returns for 9 yds to the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5979% → 78%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
79.4%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-4
79.5%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 36Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+5
78.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the USC 41Similar
Q1 0:06
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
78.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+5
78.3%
Kris Albarado punt for 51 yds , Steven Nelson returns for 5 yds to the OrgSt 46 OREGON ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Cyril Noland-Lewis) to the OrgSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 3:4722% → 25%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
78.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Gavin Andrews) to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+5
78.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 5 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+29
78.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 29 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
77.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 6 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+8
76.4%
Terron Ward run for 8 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+27
76.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 27 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
75.3%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-5
75.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Roman Sapolu) to the USC 26Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 15
OPP 26
0
75.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Caleb SmithSimilar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 15
OPP 26
+10
76.5%
Mannion, Sean pass incomplete to Hamlett, Connor, PENALTY USC holding (Hawkins, Chris) 10 yards to the USC16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-7
75.0%
Xavier Hawkins run for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 23Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 17
OPP 23
0
75.3%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 17
OPP 23
+2
76.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 2 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 15
OPP 21
+38
75.3%
Trevor Romaine 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:4275% → 80%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
75.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 7 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+9
76.3%
Javorius Allen run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
76.3%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+8
74.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 8 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-5
75.5%
USC Penalty, False Start (Randall Telfer) to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+31
74.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 31 yds to the OrgSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
76.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Ajene Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+3
74.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 3 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+16
79.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 16 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10INT
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:2722% → 27%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
77.8%
Storm Woods run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
76.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 6 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
75.8%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
75.7%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
75.2%
Sean Mannion sacked by Su'a Cravens for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 18
OWN 43
-5
76.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 23
OWN 38
+10
76.6%
Mannion, Sean pass incomplete to Villamin, Jordan, PENALTY USC holding (Hawkins, Chris) 10 yards to the OREGONST48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
74.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 11 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
74.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Tyler Anderson for 4 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Hayes Pullard) to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
73.1%
Sean Mannion pass intercepted, touchback. Leon McQuay return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11END OF HALF
11 plays · 80 yds · 2:2577% → 85%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for no gain to the USC 20Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
77.1%
Nelson Agholor run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 18Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+5
75.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Bud Delva) to the USC 23Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+21
76.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Ajene Harris for 21 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
78.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Adoree' JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
77.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 13 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
78.3%
Cody Kessler sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards to the OREGONST 47 USC Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Cody Kessler) to the USC 47Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 20
OWN 47
0
77.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 20
OWN 47
+5
76.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 5 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 15
OPP 48
+48
84.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 48 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:2615% → 14%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
85.3%
Storm Woods run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+7
85.0%
Storm Woods run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
85.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Ricky Ortiz for 3 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Hayes Pullard) to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
83.9%
Storm Woods run for 1 yd to the USC 46Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
83.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
84.6%
Sean Mannion pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
85.6%
Keith Kostol punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0286% → 85%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
85.7%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+3
86.0%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
85.5%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Javorius AllenSimilar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
85.0%
Kris Albarado punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Steven Nelson at the OrgSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2416% → 14%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.5%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
84.8%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Terron WardSimilar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
85.2%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
86.2%
Keith Kostol punt for 44 yds, downed at the USC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15MISSED FG
15 plays · 70 yds · 5:0086% → 87%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
86.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 8 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+6
86.2%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
86.5%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
86.8%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
86.4%
Cody Kessler run for no gain to the USC 35Similar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+1
86.1%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.1%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
86.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 11 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
87.7%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the USC 48Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+11
87.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Ajene Harris for 11 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
87.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 18 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
87.9%
Cody Kessler sacked by Obum Gwacham for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 17
OPP 30
0
87.6%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Ajene HarrisSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 17
OPP 30
+12
87.0%
Javorius Allen run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
87.0%
Andre Heidari 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2514% → 11%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
86.2%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
86.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 4 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
87.2%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+3
89.0%
Keith Kostol punt for 54 yds , Nelson Agholor returns for 3 yds to the USC 23 USC Penalty, Illegal Block (John Plattenburg) to the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 4:2188% → 97%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
87.7%
Justin Davis run for 10 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-9
88.3%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Toa Lobendahn) to the USC 14Similar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 19
OWN 14
+21
88.1%
Justin Davis run for 21 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
88.4%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
89.3%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the USC 43Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+11
88.7%
Javorius Allen run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
89.6%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
89.6%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+11
89.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 11 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
90.4%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 13
OPP 32
0
90.3%
Ajene Harris pass incomplete to Javorius AllenSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+15
89.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 15 yds to the OrgSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
97.1%
Javorius Allen run for 17 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:514% → 3%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
95.7%
Terron Ward run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-10
96.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sean Harlow) to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 17
OWN 21
0
96.4%
Terron Ward run for no gain to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 17
OWN 21
0
96.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Terron WardSimilar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 17
OWN 21
0
96.6%
Keith Kostol punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1598% → 97%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
50
+4
97.6%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
97.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 5 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
97.5%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 44 Justin Davis fumbled, forced by Obum Gwacham, recovered by USC Cody KesslerSimilar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
97.4%
Kris Albarado punt for 35 yds, downed at the OrgSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:453% → 3%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
97.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 3 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+10
97.1%
Mannion, Sean pass incomplete to Smith, Caleb, PENALTY USC holding (Sarao, Anthony) 10 yards to the OREGONST22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
97.0%
Mannion, Sean pass incomplete, PENALTY USC roughing passer (Pelon, Claude) 15 yards to the OREGONST37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.8%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
96.8%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Caleb SmithSimilar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+6
97.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 6 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 4
OWN 43
-5
96.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
97.2%
Keith Kostol punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 3:4998% → 100%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
97.6%
Javorius Allen run for 8 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+6
97.7%
Javorius Allen run for 6 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
97.7%
OREGON ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Dylan Wynn) to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
97.9%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
98.0%
Javorius Allen run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 1
50
0
98.3%
Soma Vainuku run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 1
50
+1
98.2%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
98.4%
Javorius Allen run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+14
98.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Cyril Noland-Lewis) to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
98.4%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+21
99.8%
Justin Davis run for 21 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:230% → 0%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Luke Del Rio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Keith Kostol punt for 39 yds, downed at the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 45 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
99.8%
James Toland run for 9 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+15
99.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.8%
James Toland run for 3 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+5
99.8%
James Toland run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+8
99.8%
James Toland run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
99.9%
James Toland run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+8
99.9%
James Toland run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-2
99.9%
James Toland run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 48 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)
+9
TD · Q4 14:29
Javorius Allen run for 17 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q2 7:16
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 16 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com