Oregon State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2581st
  Defense+0.1543rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense50.4%95th
  Defense42.9%42nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1714th
  Defense+1.2460th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2590th
  Defense+0.1244th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2970th
  Defense+0.2247th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense56.5%97th
  Defense47.3%50th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense35.3%83rd
  Defense33.3%27th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.5998th
  Defense3.0743rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense12.5%89th
  Defense14.5%26th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.9%93rd
  Defense15.9%33rd

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Oregon State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   PUR
2. W
   HAW
3. W
   IDHO
4. W
   USC
5. W
   WASH
6. L
   WSU
7. W
   UTAH
8. L
   CAL
9. L
   COLO
10. W
    STAN
11. W
    ASU
12. L
    ORE
13. L
    USU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Oregon State.

Players, 2021

1. Chance NolanQB318 plays · +0.239 pts/play · 62nd of 219 QBs
   1.42WAR0.85 to 2.10
2. B.J. BaylorRB205 plays · +0.207 pts/play · 23rd of 387 RBs
   0.79WAR0.59 to 0.99
3. Deshaun FenwickRB69 plays · +0.195 pts/play · 181st of 387 RBs
   0.25WAR0.20 to 0.31
4. Trey LoweRB58 plays · +0.182 pts/play · 220th of 387 RBs
   0.20WAR0.15 to 0.24
5. Trevon BradfordWR54 plays · +0.164 pts/play · 104th of 474 WRs
   0.17WAR0.12 to 0.22
6. Luke LoecherP31 plays · +0.194 pts/play · 53rd of 101 punters
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.16
7. Tre'Shaun HarrisonWR34 plays · +0.172 pts/play · 209th of 474 WRs
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.14
8. Sam NoyerQB25 plays · +0.211 pts/play · 195th of 219 QBs
   0.10WAR0.04 to 0.16

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Oregon State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  64164148th of 130Roster talent: 641, 48th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16516570th of 130Recruiting: 165, 70th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  85%85%44th of 128Returning production: 85%, 44th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +8.9+8.944th of 130SP+ rating: +8.9, 44th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Oregon State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.07 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs ASUQ4 14:39 4th & 8 at ORST 27, up 14Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.3 pts
2. vs USUQ3 6:55 4th & 3 at USU 26, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
3. at WSUQ4 0:33 4th & 19 at WSU 23, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.2 pts
4. vs USUQ4 6:45 4th & 12 at ORST 42, down 11Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.7 pts
5. vs HAWQ2 5:03 4th & 3 at HAW 9, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
6. at WSUQ3 11:37 4th & 8 at midfield, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.4 pts
7. at CALQ1 8:01 4th & 1 at ORST 39, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
8. at USCQ2 9:34 4th & 3 at ORST 42, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

65th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Oregon State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   PUR
2. W

   HAW
3. W

   IDHO
4. W

   USC
5. W

   WASH
6. L

   WSU
7. W

   UTAH
8. L

   CAL
9. L

   COLO
10. W

    STAN
11. W

    ASU
12. L

    ORE
13. L

    USU

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Oregon State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.59
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock−0.17
• Timeouts+0.26
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.28

Game by game

• PURL 21-30 at PUR30% → 1%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −31
• HAWW 45-27 vs HAW79% → 98%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +24, Possession & field position +1
• IDHOW 42-0 vs IDHO96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +6
• USCW 45-27 at USC18% → 99%Before kickoff −32 · On the field +81: Scoreboard +65, Clock +3
• WASHW 27-24 vs WASH52% → 94%Before kickoff +2 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +37, Possession & field position −1
• WSUL 24-31 at WSU58% → 9%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −49: Scoreboard −31, Possession & field position −2
• UTAHW 42-34 vs UTAH45% → 97%Before kickoff −5 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +40, Timeouts +2
• CALL 25-39 at CAL48% → 8%Before kickoff −2 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −27, Possession & field position −3
• COLOL 34-37 at COLO77% → 41%Before kickoff +27 · On the field −36: Timeouts +24, Clock −15
• STANW 35-14 vs STAN80% → 99%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +23
• ASUW 24-10 vs ASU37% → 99%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +62: Scoreboard +47, Timeouts +2
• OREL 29-38 at ORE26% → 3%Before kickoff −24 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −27
• USUL 13-24 vs USU71% → 3%Before kickoff +21 · On the field −68: Scoreboard −61, Clock −4

Points of win probability, from Oregon State's side.

Closest call

ORST 41-34 COLO (2018) - Oregon State dropped to a 0.7% win probability before pulling it out.