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ORST

Oregon State 25 at California 39

CAL
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:19: Damien Moore run for 8 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +11.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:55: Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 32 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +11.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:37: Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 38 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +12.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:44: Dario Longhetto 48 yd FG MISSED — CAL win probability +7.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:23: Trevon Bradford 46 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Chance Nolan Run for Two-Point Conversion) — ORST win probability +16.8 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:14ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:31CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:01ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:30CAL 4th & 5 at ORST 27, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:44ORST 4th & 7 at CAL 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:04CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 33, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:39ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:44CAL 4th & 8 at ORST 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    83.0%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:32CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:05ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:01CAL 4th & 6 at ORST 6, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    90.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 12:03CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:19CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:55ORST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:37CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:23ORST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 22 B.J. Baylor fumbled, forced by Marqez Bimage, recovered by Cal Marqez BimageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:5152% → 54%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
52.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+3
52.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+5
52.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 5 yds to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
52.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
52.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.8%
Chase Garbers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4947% → 45%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
53.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
53.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 3 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-6
53.3%
Chance Nolan sacked by Trey Paster for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
54.6%
Luke Loecher punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4355% → 55%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
54.6%
Chase Garbers run for 4 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
54.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
54.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
54.6%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3045% → 44%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
54.7%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
54.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 4 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+5
54.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 5 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
55.6%
Luke Loecher punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:3156% → 59%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
56.0%
Chris Street run for 3 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
56.0%
Chase Garbers run for 4 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+16
55.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 16 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+25
56.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 25 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
56.8%
Chris Street run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
56.8%
Chris Street run for no gain to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
56.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+45
58.8%
Dario Longhetto 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7FG
12 plays · 74 yds · 5:3841% → 40%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
58.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+8
58.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
58.8%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
58.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
58.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
58.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+13
58.1%
Chance Nolan run for 13 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+28
59.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 28 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
59.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
59.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
59.7%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+29
59.7%
Everett Hayes 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2561% → 74%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.8%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
60.9%
Christopher Brooks run for 5 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
61.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 5 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
61.6%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+22
62.0%
Chase Garbers run for 22 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
62.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+20
62.4%
Damien Moore run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
62.4%
Damien Moore run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
73.5%
Damien Moore run for 8 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9INT
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:3330% → 27%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
70.4%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Zeriah BeasonSimilar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
70.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 9 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
69.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
70.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+7
70.2%
Chance Nolan run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 2
50
+4
69.5%
Jack Colletto run for 4 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
69.4%
Champ Flemings run for 11 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
68.6%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
68.6%
Baylor,B.J. rush for 5 yards gain to the CAL30 (Scott,Daniel) PENALTY OSU Holding offsetting CAL Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
68.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
72.7%
Chance Nolan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4275% → 76%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
75.1%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+8
75.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 8 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+1
74.8%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
75.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:0925% → 37%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
75.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+11
75.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 11 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
74.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 10 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
73.9%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Luke MusgraveSimilar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
74.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 6 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+11
73.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 11 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
62.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 32 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 56 yds · 0:5568% → 69%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
68.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 7 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
67.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 6 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+41
69.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 41 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2368% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.7%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
67.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Damien MooreSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+22
66.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 22 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
69.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Damien Moore for 2 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+6
68.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 6 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+7
68.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 7 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
70.0%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+38
82.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 38 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5819% → 18%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.6%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
80.8%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
81.7%
Luke Loecher punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:5583% → 90%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
82.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 4 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
82.6%
Chase Garbers run for 4 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+17
82.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 17 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
83.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 12 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
83.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
83.3%
Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
82.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
90.2%
Dario Longhetto 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:4912% → 10%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+40
88.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Champ Flemings for 40 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
86.8%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
86.4%
Trevon Bradford run for 5 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
87.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
86.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+11
86.4%
Trey Lowe run for 11 yds to the Cal 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2392% → 93%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.3%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
92.4%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
92.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
92.7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:278% → 7%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
92.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 15 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
91.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
91.8%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
92.0%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+1
93.4%
Luke Loecher punt blocked by Nick Alftin, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 38 blocked by Nick AlftinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
1 play · 38 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
92.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 38 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3711% → 29%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
89.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
88.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+11
88.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 11 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
88.0%
Nolan,Chance pass incomplete to Lindsey,Tyjon PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Lindsey,Tyjon) 15 yards from CAL44 to OSU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 41
+6
89.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 6 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 47
+17
89.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 17 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-10
87.6%
Colletto,Jack rush for 24 yards gain to the CAL12 (Hicks,Elijah) PENALTY OSU Holding (Musgrave,Luke) 10 yards from CAL36 to CAL46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+46
70.7%
Trevon Bradford 46 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Chance Nolan Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4770% → 84%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
70.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 5 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
69.7%
Chase Garbers run for 6 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
71.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Monroe Young for 17 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
74.0%
Chase Garbers run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+3
74.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
73.4%
Chase Garbers run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+24
75.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Rejzohn Wright) to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
81.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
81.3%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.5%
Christopher Brooks 2 Yd pass from Chase Garbers (Christopher Brooks Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
83.8%
Garbers,Chase pass attempt Failed PENALTY OSU Holding (Grant,Jaydon) 2 yards from OSU03 to OSU01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.5%
Chance Nolan pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
70.5%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Damien Moore) to the Cal 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23DOWNS
16 plays · 74 yds · 5:1982% → 95%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
81.9%
Damien Moore run for 6 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
82.1%
Damien Moore run for no gain to the Cal 26Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
83.8%
Christopher Brooks run for 7 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
84.8%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
89.2%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+5
88.5%
Damien Moore run for 5 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+56
90.2%
Damien Moore run for 56 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
91.5%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
91.3%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
95.6%
Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q4 0:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
0
94.9%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
91.7%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:23
Trevon Bradford 46 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Chance Nolan Run for Two-Point Conversion)
-16.8
TD · Q3 11:37
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 38 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)
+12.7
TD · Q2 0:55
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 32 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)
-11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com