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ORST

Oregon State 21 at Purdue 30

PUR
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:00 · Jack Colletto run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Pregame prior+7.5Home team on offense+3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.4Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 1:19: Mitchell Fineran 22 yd FG GOOD — PUR win probability +6.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:05: Tyjon Lindsey run for 7 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +23.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:56: Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 5 yds for a TD (Mitchell Fineran KICK) — PUR win probability +18.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:13: B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +34.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 2:09: Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 50 yds for a TD (Mitchell Fineran KICK) — PUR win probability +16.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 11ORST made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 12:44ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:15PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:15PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:01PUR 4th & 27 at ORST 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    65.1%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:28ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:28ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:17ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:17ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:08PUR 4th & 11 at PUR 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:08PUR 4th & 11 at PUR 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 11:43ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 11:43ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 8:19PUR 4th & 6 at ORST 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q2 5:12ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  15. Q2 3:42PUR 4th & 13 at PUR 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−2.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  16. Q2 0:06PUR 4th & 10 at ORST 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−3.5
    average punt
  17. Q3 10:52PUR 4th & 6 at ORST 24, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−6.7
    average punt
  18. Q3 7:00ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.6%−1.5
    average punt
  19. Q3 1:19PUR 4th & 5 at ORST 5, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−11.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:46PUR 4th & 18 at PUR 33, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−9.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:16ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 37, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.0%−1.9
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:03ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 27, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:22ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 48, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:10ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:43PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:05ORST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:56PUR Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:13ORST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:09PUR Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 3 yds · 2:1630% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.4%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Champ Flemings for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
70.4%
Baylor,B.J. rush for 6 yards gain to the OSU35 (Trice,Cory; Grant,Marvin) PENALTY OSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from OSU29 to OSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
70.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
70.4%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 1 yd to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
70.4%
Baylor,B.J. rush for 6 yards gain to the OSU35 (Trice,Cory; Grant,Marvin) PENALTY OSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from OSU29 to OSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
70.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
70.4%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 1 yd to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
70.2%
Luke Loecher punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2970% → 70%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
70.1%
Zander Horvath run for 3 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
70.1%
Zander Horvath run for 3 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
70.1%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
69.6%
Jack Ansell punt for 38 ydsSimilar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
69.6%
Jack Ansell punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 1:0530% → 32%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
69.7%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 21 yds to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+34
69.5%
Tyjon Lindsey pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 34 yds to the Prdue 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
67.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 9 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4PUNT
14 plays · 39 yds · 3:0968% → 66%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.2%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Milton WrightSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.2%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Milton WrightSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+42
68.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 42 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
68.8%
Zander Horvath run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+12
68.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 12 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
68.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 2 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+1
68.8%
Zander Horvath run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
68.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 7
OPP 16
-20
68.3%
PENALTY PUR Delay Of Game PUR UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 20 yards from OSU16 to OSU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 27
OPP 36
0
65.6%
Jack Ansell punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 1:3333% → 34%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
66.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
66.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
66.8%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
66.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
66.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
66.8%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
65.7%
Luke Loecher punt for 40 ydsSimilar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
65.7%
Luke Loecher punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:4566% → 70%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
65.8%
King Doerue run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+17
65.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Broc Thompson for 17 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
66.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for no gain to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+15
66.2%
Plummer,Jack pass incomplete PENALTY OSU Targeting (Stover,Cory) 15 yards from OSU26 to OSU11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field is confirmed.Similar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
66.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for no gain to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+15
66.2%
Plummer,Jack pass incomplete PENALTY OSU Targeting (Stover,Cory) 15 yards from OSU26 to OSU11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field is confirmed.Similar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
69.7%
Zander Horvath run for 11 yds for a TD (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:2632% → 33%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.0%
Trey Lowe run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.0%
Trey Lowe run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
67.9%
Trey Lowe run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
67.7%
Jack Colletto run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
67.3%
Sam Noyer sacked by Jalen Graham for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 35 Sam Noyer fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Deshaun Fenwick , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+6
68.1%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 6 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
67.7%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Luke MusgraveSimilar
Q1 0:17
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
67.4%
Luke Loecher punt for 48 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:17
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
67.4%
Luke Loecher punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 9 yds · 2:5268% → 66%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
67.8%
Zander Horvath run for 5 yds to the Prdue 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+4
67.7%
Zander Horvath run for 4 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+1
67.3%
Zander Horvath run for 1 yd to the Prdue 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
67.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Garrett Miller for 1 yd to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
67.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 20
-10
67.0%
Plummer,Jack pass complete to Thompson,Broc for 37 yards to the OSU43 (Austin,Alex) PENALTY PUR Pass Interference (Durham,Payne) 10 yards from PUR20 to PUR10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 10
+10
67.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 10 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
67.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 20
-10
67.0%
Plummer,Jack pass complete to Thompson,Broc for 37 yards to the OSU43 (Austin,Alex) PENALTY PUR Pass Interference (Durham,Payne) 10 yards from PUR20 to PUR10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 10
+10
67.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 10 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
65.8%
Jack Ansell punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
65.8%
Jack Ansell punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:2535% → 33%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
64.6%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
65.0%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Jack CollettoSimilar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-5
65.5%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Gray,Joshua) 5 yards from OSU45 to OSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 15
OWN 40
0
66.2%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
66.9%
Luke Loecher punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 22Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
66.9%
Luke Loecher punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:2467% → 69%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
67.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 12 yds to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
67.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 19 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
69.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 6 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+6
69.0%
Dylan Downing run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
69.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 6 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+2
69.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Dylan Downing for 2 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
68.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
69.0%
Mitchell Fineran 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:0232% → 31%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
68.3%
Trey Lowe run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
68.0%
Trey Lowe run for no gain to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+20
68.5%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 20 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
66.3%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Trey Lowe for 1 yd to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-15
66.5%
Baylor,B.J. rush for 2 yards gain to the PUR49 (Alexander,Jaylan) PENALTY OSU Face Mask (Eldridge,Nathan) 15 yards from OSU49 to OSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 24
OWN 34
+12
68.6%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 12 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 12
OWN 46
0
68.2%
Sam Noyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 12
OWN 46
0
68.2%
Sam Noyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
68.9%
Luke Loecher punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3069% → 67%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
69.0%
Jack Plummer run for 3 yds to the Prdue 7Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 13
OWN 7
0
68.3%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Broc ThompsonSimilar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 13
OWN 7
0
67.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Zander Horvath for no gain to the Prdue 7Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 13
OWN 7
0
67.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Zander Horvath for no gain to the Prdue 7Similar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 13
OWN 7
0
66.6%
Jack Ansell punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the Prdue 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2235% → 35%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
65.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+1
64.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the Prdue 42Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+1
64.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the Prdue 42Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
64.9%
Sam Noyer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14FG
13 plays · 32 yds · 2:1471% → 74%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
71.1%
Zander Horvath run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
71.3%
Zander Horvath run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
70.6%
Zander Horvath run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
71.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Zander Horvath for 10 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
71.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
71.4%
pass complete to David Bell for 11 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
71.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for no gain to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
71.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for no gain to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
70.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
69.3%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
73.6%
Mitchell Fineran 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
73.9%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16INT
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:0875% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
74.6%
Zander Horvath run for 24 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
76.3%
Zander Horvath run for 1 yd to the Prdue 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+2
75.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Zander Horvath for 2 yds to the Prdue 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+13
74.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 13 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
76.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jackson AnthropSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+13
76.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 13 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
76.7%
Plummer,Jack rush for 3 yards gain to the OSU25 (Hughes-Murray,Andrezj) PENALTY OSU Illegal Substitution (Skelton,Alexander) 5 yards from OSU28 to OSU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 23
+1
76.7%
Zander Horvath run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+2
76.7%
Zander Horvath run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
76.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Milton WrightSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
76.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Milton WrightSimilar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 6
OPP 24
0
75.0%
Jack Albers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 41 yds · 3:5227% → 29%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
73.1%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 10 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
72.5%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Luke MusgraveSimilar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
72.9%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 9 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
72.5%
Jack Colletto run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
72.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
72.4%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+10
73.5%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 10 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
71.2%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Silas BoldenSimilar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
71.4%
Trey Lowe run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
70.1%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+1
71.2%
Jack Colletto run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 5:4178% → 84%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
77.6%
Jackson Anthrop run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+4
77.6%
King Doerue run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
77.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 7 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+2
78.0%
King Doerue run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
77.0%
King Doerue run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
78.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 19 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
77.9%
Zander Horvath run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.9%
Zander Horvath run for no gain to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+4
76.9%
King Doerue run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q3 1:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
83.6%
Mitchell Fineran 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1417% → 43%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.9%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
82.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
82.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 18 yds to the Prdue 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+41
81.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 41 yds to the Prdue 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
79.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the Prdue 7Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
56.7%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 7 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:1968% → 65%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.2%
Jack Plummer run for 5 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
68.9%
Jackson Anthrop run for 2 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
66.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 13 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
70.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Zander HorvathSimilar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-11
69.6%
Jack Plummer sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the Prdue 30Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 21
OWN 30
+3
66.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Zander Horvath for 3 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
65.2%
Jack Ansell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3035% → 34%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
64.6%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
64.2%
Trey Lowe run for no gain to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+5
66.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 5 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
66.1%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 3:2073% → 93%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
73.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 13 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
74.3%
Zander Horvath run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+8
74.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 8 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
74.2%
Zander Horvath run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+4
74.2%
Zander Horvath run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
92.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 5 yds for a TD (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:438% → 45%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.1%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Luke MusgraveSimilar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.1%
Chance Nolan run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
92.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 8 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
90.9%
Chance Nolan run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
90.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 7 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+45
89.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Champ Flemings for 45 yds to the Prdue 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:0477% → 98%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
77.1%
PENALTY PUR Delay Of Game 5 yards from PUR25 to PUR20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+22
76.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 22 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
80.5%
Zander Horvath run for 3 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
81.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 2
50
+50
98.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 50 yds for a TD (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 21 yds · 1:413% → 3%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-11
96.9%
Nolan,Chance pass complete to Bradford,Trevon for 11 yards to the OSU38 (Mackey,Dedrick) PENALTY OSU Illegal Touch-Pass (Bradford,Trevon). NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
97.0%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Trey LoweSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
97.1%
Nolan,Chance pass complete to Bradford,Trevon for 16 yards to the OSU43, out of bounds PENALTY OSU Illegal Touch-Pass (Bradford,Trevon). NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+17
97.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 17 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
96.5%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to B.J. BaylorSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
96.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 8 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
96.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 1 yd to the Prdue 47Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-5
96.6%
PENALTY OSU False Start 5 yards from PUR47 to OSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
96.9%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
98.6%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:13
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
-34.1
TD · Q4 13:05
Tyjon Lindsey run for 7 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
-23
TD · Q4 4:56
Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 5 yds for a TD (Mitchell Fineran KICK)
+18.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com