Oregon State

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1662nd
  Defense+0.0183rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense48.3%90th
  Defense38.8%80th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1722nd
  Defense+1.2259th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1882nd
  Defense+0.1418th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2868th
  Defense−0.0297th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense53.8%90th
  Defense44.4%76th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense33.0%70th
  Defense28.2%70th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3988th
  Defense2.9956th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.9%63rd
  Defense17.9%58th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.5%82nd
  Defense17.8%74th

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Oregon State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   BOIS
2. W
   FRES
3. W
   MTST
4. L
   USC
5. L
   UTAH
6. W
   STAN
7. W
   WSU
8. W
   COLO
9. L
   WASH
10. W
    CAL
11. W
    ASU
12. W
    ORE
13. W
    FLA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Oregon State.

Players, 2022

1. Ben GulbransonQB191 plays · +0.146 pts/play · 118th of 234 QBs
   0.52WAR−0.03 to 0.99
2. Damien MartinezRB135 plays · +0.131 pts/play · 78th of 384 RBs
   0.33WAR0.22 to 0.44
3. Chance NolanQB96 plays · +0.150 pts/play · 158th of 234 QBs
   0.27WAR0.08 to 0.46
4. Deshaun FenwickRB98 plays · +0.134 pts/play · 124th of 384 RBs
   0.25WAR0.17 to 0.32
5. Jam GriffinRB71 plays · +0.144 pts/play · 164th of 384 RBs
   0.19WAR0.13 to 0.24
6. Tre'Shaun HarrisonWR48 plays · +0.154 pts/play · 138th of 455 WRs
   0.14WAR0.05 to 0.23
7. Tyjon LindseyWR30 plays · +0.201 pts/play · 191st of 455 WRs
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.17
8. Anthony GouldWR24 plays · +0.226 pts/play · 212th of 455 WRs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.14

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Oregon State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  63663654th of 129Roster talent: 636, 54th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16716768th of 129Recruiting: 167, 68th of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  70%70%37th of 128Returning production: 70%, 37th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +14.3+14.322nd of 129SP+ rating: +14.3, 22nd of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Oregon State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.06 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs BOISQ2 10:28 4th & 3 at BOIS 3, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
2. at STANQ4 14:50 4th & 8 at STAN 21, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.1 pts
3. vs WSUQ4 7:22 4th & 1 at ORST 45, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
4. vs WSUQ4 3:26 4th & 1 at WSU 17, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
5. vs USCQ3 11:02 4th & 8 at USC 41, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
6. vs BOISQ3 0:04 4th & 3 at ORST 30, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
7. at UTAHQ3 9:46 4th & 4 at UTAH 13, down 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
8. vs OREQ3 12:23 4th & 4 at ORST 29, down 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

10th of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Oregon State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   BOIS
2. W

   FRES
3. W

   MTST
4. L

   USC
5. L

   UTAH
6. W

   STAN
7. W

   WSU
8. W

   COLO
9. L

   WASH
10. W

    CAL
11. W

    ASU
12. W

    ORE
13. W

    FLA

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Oregon State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.34
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock+0.05
• Timeouts+0.03
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.10

Game by game

• BOISW 34-17 vs BOIS54% → 99%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +41
• FRESW 35-32 at FRES44% → 95%Before kickoff −6 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +52, Clock +3
• MTSTW 68-28 vs MTST90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +13
• USCL 14-17 vs USC42% → 21%Before kickoff −8 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −36, Clock −2
• UTAHL 16-42 at UTAH21% → 0%Before kickoff −29 · On the field −20: Scoreboard −24, Timeouts +1
• STANW 28-27 at STAN58% → 94%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +45, Clock +2
• WSUW 24-10 vs WSU65% → 99%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +35
• COLOW 42-9 vs COLO92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +11
• WASHL 21-24 at WASH37% → 11%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −22, Possession & field position −2
• CALW 38-10 vs CAL81% → 100%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +22
• ASUW 31-7 at ASU76% → 99%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +31, Clock +2
• OREW 38-34 vs ORE55% → 96%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +35, Timeouts +2
• FLAW 30-3 vs FLA70% → 100%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +31

Points of win probability, from Oregon State's side.

Closest call

ORST 41-34 COLO (2018) - Oregon State dropped to a 0.7% win probability before pulling it out.