Try the model
FLA

Florida 3 at Oregon State 30

ORST
2022 · SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl · Dec 17, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:51 · Jack Colletto run for 11 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 90Home team on offense+9.6Pregame prior+9.5Score differential+1.4Garbage-time factor+4.4Blowout margin−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:10: Tyjon Lindsey run for 8 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +3.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Fla 20 — FLA win probability +3.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 12:31: Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete — ORST win probability +3.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:20: Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 15 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +9.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:44: Ben Gulbranson run for 7 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes PAT MISSED) — ORST win probability +3.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:10FLA 4th & 12 at FLA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:02ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:49FLA 4th & 9 at ORST 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:00FLA 4th & 8 at ORST 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    27.6%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:33ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:52FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:32ORST 4th & 6 at FLA 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:43FLA 4th & 20 at FLA 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−2.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:51ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.1%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:09FLA 4th & 15 at FLA 14, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:35FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 39, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:54FLA 4th & 2 at ORST 20, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:51ORST 4th & 13 at ORST 31, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:37FLA 4th & 23 at ORST 23, down 30
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:10ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:20ORST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:44ORST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:02ORST Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4030% → 30%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
69.8%
Ricky Pearsall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 23Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
69.7%
Jack Miller III pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
69.7%
Jack Miller III pass incomplete to Caleb DouglasSimilar
Q1 14:10
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
69.7%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jesiah Irish at the OrgSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5470% → 69%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
69.6%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-11
69.5%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 11 yards to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 19
OWN 17
+9
69.4%
Damien Martinez run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+59
69.1%
Luke Loecher punt for 59 yds , Ricky Pearsall returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3MISSED FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 6:0931% → 32%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
69.4%
Etienne, Trevor rush for no gain to the FLORIDA14, PENALTY OREGONST offside (Rawls, James) 5 yards to the FLORIDA19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 5
OWN 19
0
69.2%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the Fla 19Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
69.2%
Jack Miller III pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+10
69.3%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 10 yds to the Fla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
69.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+9
68.9%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 9 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
68.6%
Jack Miller III run for 4 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+19
68.3%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 19 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
68.0%
Jack Miller III run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-1
67.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-5
67.8%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Kamryn Waites) to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 11
OPP 37
-5
67.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Kingsley Eguakun) to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 16
OPP 42
+7
68.1%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 7 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+52
68.1%
Adam Mihalek 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:3068% → 73%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
68.3%
Jesiah Irish run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
68.8%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+2
68.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+34
68.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 34 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
69.3%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the Fla 20Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+9
69.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 9 yds to the Fla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
69.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the Fla 8Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
72.8%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 8 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:5929% → 28%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
71.5%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 15 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
70.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the Fla 40Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
71.2%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 8 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+14
70.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
70.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Michael Tarquin) to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+3
71.0%
Jack Miller III run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
70.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+4
71.4%
Jack Miller III run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
71.8%
Jack Miller III pass incomplete to Ja'Quavion FraziarsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2773% → 72%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
72.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Illegal Participation (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+3
72.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+3
72.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to John Dunmore for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
72.5%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
71.7%
Luke Loecher punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Ricky Pearsall at the Fla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3428% → 26%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
72.3%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the Fla 13Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
72.5%
Jack Miller III pass incomplete to Jonathan OdomSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+4
73.1%
Jack Miller III run for 4 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 5
OWN 17
+6
73.8%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 57 yds , Jesiah Irish returns for 6 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:1873% → 75%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
73.2%
Gebbia, Tristan pass incomplete to Dunmore, John, PENALTY FLORIDA offside 5 yards to the OREGONST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+2
74.2%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Silas Bolden for 2 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+6
74.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-12
74.5%
Tristan Gebbia sacked by Derek Wingo for a loss of 12 yards to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 22
OWN 33
+10
73.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Jack Velling for 10 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+15
74.0%
Gebbia, Tristan pass incomplete to Lindsey, Tyjon, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference (Perkins, Jadarrius) 15 yards to the FLORIDA42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST.Similar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+29
75.8%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 29 yds to the Fla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
76.1%
Jam Griffin run for no gain to the Fla 13Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
75.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 4 yds to the Fla 9Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+5
75.5%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to John Dunmore for 5 yds to the Fla 4Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 1
OPP 4
-5
74.7%
Gebbia, Tristan rush for 3 yards to the FLORIDA1, PENALTY OREGONST false start 5 yards to the FLORIDA9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
74.9%
Everett Hayes 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:1124% → 22%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
75.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 11
OWN 25
-10
76.2%
Jack Miller III sacked by Andrew Chatfield Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 21
OWN 15
+1
77.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Fla 16Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 20
OWN 16
+69
77.7%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 59 yds, downed at the OREGONST 25 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OrgSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10END OF HALF
16 plays · 70 yds · 2:3576% → 77%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
75.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+1
76.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
75.7%
Ben Gulbranson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
77.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to John Dunmore for 16 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
78.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to John Dunmore for 3 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+11
78.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jack Velling for 11 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
79.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
78.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jesiah Irish for 9 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
78.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
79.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
79.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Isaiah Newell for 11 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
79.4%
Ben Gulbranson run for 6 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+35
80.3%
Everett Hayes 33 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jordan Young Derek Wingo return for 35 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
77.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Fla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:2579% → 91%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
79.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
80.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
79.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+11
78.4%
Jack Colletto run for 11 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
81.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
81.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+5
80.8%
Gulbranson, Ben pass incomplete to Bolden, Silas, PENALTY FLORIDA offside 5 yards to the FLORIDA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST.Similar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
82.0%
Tyjon Lindsey pass incomplete to Jake OvermanSimilar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+23
82.0%
Ben Gulbranson run for 11 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Rashad Torrence II) to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
82.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (John Dunmore) to the Fla 17Similar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+2
82.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+15
91.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 15 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0011% → 10%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
89.2%
Jack Miller III pass incomplete to Caleb DouglasSimilar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
89.5%
Jack Miller III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-5
89.8%
Jack Miller III sacked by Jaden Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 14Similar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 15
OWN 14
+7
90.1%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt blocked by Jack Colletto blocked by Jack Colletto Skyler Thomas return for 7 yds to the Fla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:1992% → 96%
Q3 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Silas BoldenSimilar
Q3 8:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for no gain to the Fla 7Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
95.7%
Ben Gulbranson run for 7 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:554% → 3%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
95.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+4
95.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+10
95.9%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 10 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
96.1%
Jack Miller III run for 3 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-6
96.1%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 39Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 13
OWN 39
0
96.6%
Jack Miller III sacked by Sione Lolohea for 0 yards to the Fla 39Similar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
96.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 59 yds, downed at the OrgSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
13 plays · 98 yds · 6:2897% → 100%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
96.8%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+2
96.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+3
97.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 3 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+16
97.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 16 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
97.8%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
98.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to John Dunmore for 15 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Jake OvermanSimilar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
98.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 8 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+6
98.2%
Jack Colletto run for 6 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
98.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+1
98.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+23
98.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 23 yds to the Fla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Jam Griffin run for 2 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16DOWNS
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:310% → 0%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.8%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the Fla 23Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+28
99.8%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 28 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
99.8%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Kingsley Eguakun) to the Fla 46Similar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+15
99.9%
Miller III, Jack pass incomplete to Pearsall, Ricky, PENALTY OREGONST pass interference (Robinson, Jaden) 15 yards to the OREGONST39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
99.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-5
99.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Dante Zanders) to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+15
99.9%
Jack Miller III run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 4
OPP 22
-5
99.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Austin Barber) to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+7
99.9%
Jack Miller III run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 2
OPP 20
-3
99.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
99.9%
Jesiah Irish run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
Kanoa Shannon run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-5
99.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Joshua Gray) to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 13
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Silas BoldenSimilar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 13
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 13
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Luke Loecher punt for 56 yds, downed at the Fla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 5:010% → 0%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
99.9%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 17 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
99.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+10
99.9%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Ja'Quavion Fraziars for 10 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Jack Miller III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Jack Miller III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.9%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 15 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+38
100.0%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 38 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-8
99.9%
Jack Miller III run for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 14 Jack Miller III fumbled, recovered by FlaSimilar
Q4 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-9
100.0%
Jack Miller III sacked by Kyrei Fisher-Morris for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 23
+40
100.0%
Adam Mihalek 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19Uncategorized
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:20
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 15 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q1 2:10
Tyjon Lindsey run for 8 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q3 8:44
Ben Gulbranson run for 7 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes PAT MISSED)
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com