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ORST

Oregon State 35 at Fresno State 32

FRES
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:57 · Luke Loecher punt for 42 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 27 yds to the OrgSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTimeout advantage
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Home team on offense−4.0Pregame prior+3.0Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score differential−2.3Timeout advantage−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:04: Jordan Mims run for 11 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +13.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:04: Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +19.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:50: Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 17 yds for a TD, (Chance Nolan pass to Silas Bolden for Two-Point Conversion) — ORST win probability +51.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:05: Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 4 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano PAT MISSED) — FRES win probability +54.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Jack Colletto 2 Yd Run — ORST win probability +62.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 8ORST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 14:06ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:31FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 15, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:31ORST 4th & 2 at FRES 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    45.5%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:44ORST 4th & 2 at FRES 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:15ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:15ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:46FRES 4th & 10 at ORST 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−2.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:04FRES 4th & 3 at ORST 3, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.3%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−8.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:57ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:05FRES 4th & 5 at ORST 5, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.4%−0.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−9.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:21FRES 4th & 9 at ORST 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−8.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:25ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:33FRES 4th & 25 at FRES 35, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−7.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:32ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 22, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−2.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:31FRES 4th & 5 at ORST 19, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−17.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:03ORST 4th & 7 at FRES 48, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.1%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:19FRES 4th & 5 at ORST 34, up 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.0%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:39ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:19FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:57ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:04FRES Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:04ORST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:50ORST Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    58.8%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    59.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:05FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    80.2%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5444% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
55.8%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
55.8%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
55.8%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
55.9%
Luke Loecher punt for 64 yds, downed at the FrsSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3556% → 56%
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
55.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 1 yd to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+7
55.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 7 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 2
OWN 15
0
55.8%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 2
OWN 15
0
55.8%
Carson King punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3TD
14 plays · 47 yds · 6:5244% → 49%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
55.7%
Jesiah Irish run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
55.7%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+9
55.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 9 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+9
55.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 9 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
55.6%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
55.6%
Jam Griffin run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+15
55.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Silas Bolden for 15 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
55.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for no gain to the FrsSt 11 Deshaun Fenwick fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Deshaun FenwickSimilar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+6
55.6%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
55.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for no gain to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+2
55.5%
Jack Colletto run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
54.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
51.0%
Jack Colletto 2 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:1452% → 58%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
52.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 2 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-5
52.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Nikko Remigio) to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+9
52.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 9 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+11
52.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 11 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
53.2%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+6
53.4%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+42
57.7%
Jordan Mims run for 42 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0444% → 43%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.6%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
55.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
54.8%
Chance Nolan sacked by Raymond Scott for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 18
OWN 31
0
55.8%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+3
56.3%
Jam Griffin run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 15
OWN 34
0
56.7%
Luke Loecher punt for 35 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 15
OWN 34
0
56.7%
Luke Loecher punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:1457% → 57%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
56.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 8 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 39
-1
58.0%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+12
57.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
50
+2
58.5%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+12
58.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 12 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
58.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 2 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+18
59.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 18 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
58.9%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
58.2%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
57.2%
Abraham Montano 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4945% → 56%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
55.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
54.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
54.7%
NOLAN, Chance pass to the left incomplete intended for GOULD, Anthony thrown to the FST40. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on LUX, Bralyn enforced 15 yards to the OSU50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
50
+14
53.2%
Damien Martinez run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
44.2%
Silas Bolden run for 36 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 5:4547% → 48%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
47.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 2 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-5
47.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+25
46.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 25 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
49.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 4 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
46.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
46.6%
HAENER, Jake pass to the left incomplete intended for MORENO-CROPPER, Jalen thrown to the OSU28. PENALTY OSU Offsides on CHATFIELD, Andrew enforced 5 yards from the OSU42 to the OSU37 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
46.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 8 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+3
47.8%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
47.8%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+6
47.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 6 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+7
46.6%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
47.8%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
47.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 7 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
46.6%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
48.4%
Abraham Montano 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0752% → 50%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
47.3%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-8
48.6%
Chance Nolan sacked by Isaiah Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+27
49.9%
Luke Loecher punt for 42 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 27 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10FG
11 plays · 30 yds · 1:5250% → 52%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
50.2%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+15
50.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 15 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
50.2%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+5
50.2%
HAENER, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for MORENO-CROPPER, Jalen thrown to the OSU0. PENALTY OSU Offsides on WRIGHT, Rejzohn enforced 5 yards from the OSU12 to the OSU7 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+4
49.9%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
51.6%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
51.8%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
49.7%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
52.2%
Abraham Montano 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:3954% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
53.9%
Nikko Remigio run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+10
53.6%
Jordan Mims run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
54.7%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+26
54.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 26 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
57.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+1
58.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 1 yd to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+4
57.0%
Jake Haener run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
58.5%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
58.5%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
57.0%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+43
61.7%
Abraham Montano 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:5640% → 38%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
60.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
59.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-2
57.3%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+9
59.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 9 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
57.0%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
57.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for no gain to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
58.9%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
61.7%
Luke Loecher punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:0761% → 80%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
61.0%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+60
61.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 60 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
66.2%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+11
79.9%
Jordan Mims run for 11 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:5423% → 47%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+42
76.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 42 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
72.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 18 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
71.9%
Jam Griffin run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+5
71.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
52.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 5 yds · 3:2459% → 56%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
58.6%
Jake Haener run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+3
60.9%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
61.4%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
60.0%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+10
58.4%
HAENER, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for BROOKS, Erik thrown to the FST50. PENALTY OSU Holding on WRIGHT, Rejzohn enforced 10 yards from the FST40 to the FST50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
50
0
62.9%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 10
50
-5
62.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Josh Kelly) to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+2
59.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 2 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 13
OWN 47
-12
58.3%
Jake Haener sacked by Kitan Oladapo for a loss of 12 yards to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 25
OWN 35
0
55.9%
Carson King punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2841% → 37%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
59.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+3
60.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 3 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+4
61.5%
Chance Nolan run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
62.8%
Luke Loecher punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:0160% → 56%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+33
59.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 33 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
65.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+10
64.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 10 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
63.3%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
65.2%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
65.0%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+5
63.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 5 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+37
56.3%
Abraham Montano 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:2334% → 32%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
66.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Brandon Kipper) to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+6
67.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Jam Griffin for 6 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+10
67.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 10 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
66.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+10
65.8%
NOLAN, Chance pass to the left incomplete thrown to the OSU30; QB hurried by SCOTT, Raymond. PENALTY FST Holding on LUX, Bralyn enforced 10 yards from the OSU25 to the OSU35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
64.7%
Jesiah Irish run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
60.5%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
62.0%
Chance Nolan run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
60.9%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:03
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
68.1%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20MISSED FG
11 plays · 18 yds · 2:4466% → 59%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
66.1%
Jalen Moreno-Cropper run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+10
64.3%
HAENER, Jake pass up the middle incomplete intended for MORENO-CROPPER, Jalen thrown to the FST50. PENALTY OSU Holding on WRIGHT, Rejzohn enforced 10 yards from the FST45 to the OSU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
67.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 15
50
-5
65.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+6
64.7%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+10
64.9%
HAENER, Jake pass to the left incomplete intended for JONES, Ty thrown to the OSU39. PENALTY OSU Holding on COOPER JR., Ryan enforced 10 yards from the OSU49 to the OSU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
67.2%
Jake Haener run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
67.5%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
62.7%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+52
59.4%
Abraham Montano 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 2:2931% → 91%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
69.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+30
69.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 30 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
61.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
60.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
9.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 17 yds for a TD, (Chance Nolan pass to Silas Bolden for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:4526% → 93%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
26.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jake Haener) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+23
25.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 23 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
29.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 3 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+45
30.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 45 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
38.4%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 4 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 0:5827% → 95%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
73.5%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
75.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 11 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
70.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 7 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-10
67.3%
NOLAN, Chance pass to the right incomplete intended for MUSGRAVE, Luke thrown to the FST33. PENALTY OSU Holding on GRAY, Joshua enforced 10 yards from the OSU45 to the OSU35 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+23
75.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Jesiah Irish for 23 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+28
71.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 28 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
65.8%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
65.8%
NOLAN, Chance pass to the left incomplete intended for LINDSEY, Tyjon broken up by LOCKRIDGE, Cameron at the FST14. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on LOCKRIDGE, Cameron enforced 12 yards to the FST2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.9%
Jack Colletto 2 Yd Run Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Jack Colletto 2 Yd Run
-62.1
TD · Q4 1:05
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 4 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano PAT MISSED)
+54.4
TD · Q4 1:50
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 17 yds for a TD, (Chance Nolan pass to Silas Bolden for Two-Point Conversion)
-51.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com