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ORST

Oregon State 28 at Stanford 27

STAN
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:19 · Luke Loecher punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Home team on offense+7.9Pregame prior−3.8Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Score differential+2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:58: Brycen Tremayne 21 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick) — STAN win probability +10.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:41: Brycen Tremayne 37 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick) — STAN win probability +15.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:50: Silas Bolden 21 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ORST win probability +10.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:45: Damien Martinez 43 Yd Run (Ben Gulbranson Run for Two-Point Conversion Failed) — ORST win probability +27.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 0:13: Tre'Shaun Harrison 56 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ORST win probability +76.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 9:07ORST 4th & 12 at STAN 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:44STAN 4th & 5 at ORST 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.6%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−2.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:17ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−2.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:30STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 31, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:36ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:19ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:40STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:57ORST 4th & 2 at STAN 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−1.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−10.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:03ORST 4th & 15 at STAN 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−8.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:36STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:33ORST 4th & 19 at ORST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−4.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:50ORST 4th & 8 at STAN 21, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−7.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:45STAN 4th & 4 at ORST 44, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−3.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:17ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 17, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−1.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:59STAN 4th & 4 at STAN 33, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:58STAN 4th & 8 at ORST 28, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−4.8
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−22.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 3:37STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:52ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:58STAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:41STAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:50ORST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:45ORST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    36.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:13ORST Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    73.7%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1MISSED FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 5:5258% → 56%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
42.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for 11 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
42.7%
Jam Griffin run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
42.8%
Jam Griffin run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+2
43.0%
Jack Colletto run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
43.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 18 yds to the Stanf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
43.0%
Gulbranson, Ben pass incomplete, PENALTY OREGONST ineligible downfield on pass (Kipper, Brandon) 5 yards to the STANFORD38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+7
43.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 7 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+11
43.1%
Damien Martinez run for 11 yds to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
43.2%
Tre'Shaun Harrison run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 22Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 12
OPP 22
0
43.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Anthony GouldSimilar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 12
OPP 22
0
43.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+40
44.3%
Atticus Sappington 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 5:3044% → 51%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
44.3%
Michael Wilson run for 18 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+31
44.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 31 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
45.4%
Casey Filkins run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-4
45.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 6 yds to the OrgSt 20 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+10
45.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 10 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+2
45.6%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
46.1%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to John HumphreysSimilar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
46.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 9 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+2
46.0%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
46.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 4 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
46.9%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.1%
Casey Filkins 1 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3TD
20 plays · 99 yds · 7:3850% → 54%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
50.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 1
OWN 10
+3
50.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
50.5%
Jam Griffin run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+11
50.9%
Jam Griffin run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
50.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Anthony Gould for 17 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
50.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 7 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+1
50.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the Stanf 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+2
50.5%
Jack Colletto run for 2 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
50.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the Stanf 43Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
50.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Anthony GouldSimilar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+12
51.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 12 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
50.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 11 yds to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
50.5%
Jam Griffin run for 6 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-5
50.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Joshua Gray) to the Stanf 19Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
51.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
52.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the Stanf 19Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+18
52.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jack Velling for 18 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.1%
Jack Colletto 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)Similar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
46.3%
STANFORD Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Austin Uke) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0748% → 51%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
48.4%
McKee, Tanner pass incomplete, PENALTY OREGONST pass interference (Austin, Alex) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
50
+16
50.1%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the STANFORD 49 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Alex Austin) to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
51.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Casey Filkins for 5 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
51.4%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
50.7%
Casey Filkins run for no gain to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
50.9%
Joshua Karty 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:2750% → 47%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
50.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
51.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
52.1%
Gulbranson, Ben pass incomplete to Harrison, Tre'Shaun, PENALTY STANFORD holding (Aybar, Wilfredo) 10 yards to the OREGONST35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST.Similar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
50.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-13
51.1%
Jam Griffin run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 37 OREGON ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brandon Kipper) to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 23
OWN 22
+11
52.6%
Jam Griffin run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 12
OWN 33
+4
53.3%
Luke Loecher punt for 49 yds , Casey Filkins returns for 4 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4752% → 52%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
52.1%
Casey Filkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 21Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+6
52.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 6 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+4
51.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 4 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
51.8%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Anthony Gould at the OrgSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5447% → 45%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
52.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+6
53.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 6 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-2
53.2%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Tobin Phillips for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
55.0%
Luke Loecher punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 1:3855% → 68%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
54.5%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Casey FilkinsSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
54.2%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to John HumphreysSimilar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+12
53.0%
Casey Filkins run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
56.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Casey Filkins for 3 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+22
56.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 22 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
57.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Casey Filkins for 3 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+21
67.9%
Brycen Tremayne 21 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 0:3935% → 32%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
65.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 8 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
63.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Jake Levengood) to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-7
66.7%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Tobin Phillips for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+8
68.0%
Jam Griffin run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
67.9%
Luke Loecher punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 47 yds · 0:1968% → 70%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
68.0%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to John HumphreysSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+16
67.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
50
0
70.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
50
+31
69.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 31 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1868% → 67%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
67.9%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
68.7%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Benjamin YurosekSimilar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
68.2%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to John HumphreysSimilar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
67.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Anthony Gould at the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 6:3731% → 30%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
68.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Anthony Gould for 16 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
67.8%
Gulbranson, Ben pass incomplete to Harrison, Tre'Shaun, PENALTY STANFORD pass interference (Bonner, Ethan) 15 yards to the STANFORD44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST.Similar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
66.9%
Jam Griffin run for 3 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+13
67.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 13 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
65.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+3
66.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 3 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+2
68.2%
Ben Gulbranson run for 2 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+3
70.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 3 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
68.1%
Jam Griffin run for 2 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-10
68.4%
Gulbranson, Ben pass complete to Harrison, Tre'Shaun for 15 yards to the STANFORD0, PENALTY OREGONST holding (Kipper, Brandon) 10 yards to the STANFORD25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 18
OPP 25
+5
70.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jake Overman for 5 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 13
OPP 20
-7
71.8%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Jonathan McGill for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 20
OPP 27
+5
77.2%
Sappington, Atticus field goal attempt from 45 MISSED - wide left, spot at STANFORD27, clock 07:12, PENALTY STANFORD offside (Turner-Muhammad, Salim) 5 yards to the STANFORD22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 15
OPP 22
+40
70.0%
Atticus Sappington 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2773% → 72%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.1%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
73.7%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the Stanf 28Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
72.8%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
72.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:0331% → 27%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
68.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
69.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Silas BoldenSimilar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-9
70.8%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Ricky Miezan and Tristan Sinclair for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 19
OWN 26
+15
73.2%
Luke Loecher punt for 54 yds , Casey Filkins returns for 15 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:5275% → 89%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
75.0%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Benjamin YurosekSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
74.9%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Casey FilkinsSimilar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+28
73.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 28 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
88.9%
Brycen Tremayne 37 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5114% → 21%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
86.3%
Jam Griffin run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
85.4%
Jam Griffin run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+2
86.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for 2 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+29
87.1%
Damien Martinez run for 29 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
86.0%
Deshaun Fenwick run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+5
88.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
89.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+21
78.9%
Silas Bolden 21 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:0084% → 87%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
83.5%
Casey Filkins run for 4 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
83.8%
Casey Filkins run for no gain to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+10
84.1%
McKee, Tanner pass incomplete to Wilson, Michael, PENALTY OREGONST holding (Cooper Jr., Ryan) 10 yards to the STANFORD37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
85.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 8 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+5
87.3%
Brendon Barrow run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
50
+4
87.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 4 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
87.7%
Tanner McKee run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
88.0%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
87.2%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Anthony Gould at the OrgSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2817% → 13%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
83.0%
Jam Griffin run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+4
83.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jake Overman for 4 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
86.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Damien MartinezSimilar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+56
87.3%
Luke Loecher punt for 46 yds, downed at the STANFORD 37 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Stanf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:1889% → 90%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
88.5%
Casey Filkins run for no gain to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-10
88.3%
McKee, Tanner pass incomplete, PENALTY STANFORD holding 10 yards to the STANFORD17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 20
OWN 17
+3
88.1%
Casey Filkins run for 3 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 17
OWN 20
+13
88.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 13 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+11
90.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 44 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 11 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 1:1414% → 43%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
86.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 20 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
84.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+43
57.5%
Damien Martinez 43 Yd Run (Ben Gulbranson Run for Two-Point Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21FG
16 plays · 49 yds · 4:4772% → 95%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
72.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 8 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+4
74.4%
Casey Filkins run for 4 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
74.2%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
74.1%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+10
74.9%
McKee, Tanner pass incomplete to Tremayne, Brycen, PENALTY OREGONST holding (Wright, Rejzohn) 10 yards to the STANFORD47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
78.4%
Casey Filkins run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+4
80.2%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
81.0%
Casey Filkins run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
86.5%
Tanner McKee run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+3
88.1%
Casey Filkins run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 4
OPP 24
-4
86.5%
Ashton Daniels sacked by John McCartan for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
94.8%
Joshua Karty 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 0:4110% → 89%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
89.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 9 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+11
87.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Anthony Gould for 11 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
11.3%
Tre'Shaun Harrison 56 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.9%
Tanner McKee pass intercepted Ryan Cooper Jr. return for no gain to the Stanf 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
6.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the Stanf 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:13
Tre'Shaun Harrison 56 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-76.1
TD · Q4 5:45
Damien Martinez 43 Yd Run (Ben Gulbranson Run for Two-Point Conversion Failed)
-27
TD · Q3 3:41
Brycen Tremayne 37 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick)
+15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com