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ORST

Oregon State 21 at Washington 24

WASH
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2022 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:57 · Luke Loecher punt for 41 yds , Jalen McMillan returns for 23 yds to the OrgSt 30 WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Carson Bruener) to the OrgSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior+5.4Home team on offense−7.8Score differential−3.0Garbage-time factor−3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:10: Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted for a TD Easton Mascarenas-Arnold return for 37 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +13.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:47: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 24 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +15.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:39: Deshaun Fenwick run for 19 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +19.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:36: Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +28.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:08: Peyton Henry 22 Yd Field Goal — WASH win probability +29.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:49WASH 4th & 5 at ORST 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:52ORST 4th & 2 at WASH 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−3.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:47WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:09ORST 4th & 3 at WASH 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    46.4%−0.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−4.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:37WASH 4th & 10 at ORST 33, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.3%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    49.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:43ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:08WASH 4th & 11 at ORST 29, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:32WASH 4th & 3 at WASH 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:57ORST 4th & 29 at ORST 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−5.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:05ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:35WASH 4th & 10 at WASH 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−3.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:33ORST 4th & 17 at WASH 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−6.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:08WASH 4th & 5 at ORST 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−4.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−33.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:01ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:23WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:10ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:47WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:39ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:36WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5337% → 40%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
62.7%
Damien Martinez run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
62.6%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jeremiah Martin) to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
62.6%
Damien Martinez run for 9 yds to the Wash 45Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+4
62.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the Wash 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
62.4%
Ben Gulbranson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 43 Ben Gulbranson fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Jam GriffinSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+2
62.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 2 yds to the Wash 41Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+13
62.3%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jordan Perryman) to the Wash 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
62.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 6 yds to the Wash 22Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+9
61.9%
Damien Martinez run for 9 yds to the Wash 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
61.8%
Damien Martinez run for 10 yds to the Wash 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
60.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:0161% → 60%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
60.8%
Cameron Davis run for 2 yds to the Wash 37Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
60.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 10 yds to the Wash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
60.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Cameron DavisSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
60.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+5
60.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Taj Davis for 5 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
60.1%
Jack McCallister punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3DOWNS
13 plays · 63 yds · 5:5241% → 44%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
59.4%
Jam Griffin run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
59.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+10
59.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Anthony Gould for 10 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
58.5%
Damien Martinez run for 9 yds to the Wash 49Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
57.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Silas BoldenSimilar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
58.0%
Jack Colletto run for 2 yds to the Wash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
57.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the Wash 41Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+26
57.2%
Damien Martinez run for 26 yds to the Wash 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
57.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Wash 25Similar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+10
56.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Damien Martinez for 10 yds to the Wash 15Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
56.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 9 yds to the Wash 6Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 1
OPP 6
-1
56.0%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 7Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 2
OPP 7
0
56.0%
Jack Colletto run for no gain to the Wash 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:5857% → 56%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+20
56.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 20 yds to the Wash 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
57.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Quentin MooreSimilar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
56.8%
Cameron Davis run for 8 yds to the Wash 35Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+2
57.1%
Cameron Davis run for 2 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
57.1%
Cameron Davis run for no gain to the Wash 37Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
56.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 4 yds to the Wash 41Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
56.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
56.1%
TEAM punt for a loss of 8 yards, punt out-of-bounds at the Wash 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:3146% → 47%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
54.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jack Colletto for 6 yds to the Wash 27Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
53.6%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the Wash 24Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
53.5%
Ben Gulbranson run for 2 yds to the Wash 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
53.0%
Jam Griffin run for 4 yds to the Wash 18Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 6
OPP 18
-1
52.8%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 19Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+4
52.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 4 yds to the Wash 15Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 3
OPP 15
0
53.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Damien MartinezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD
16 plays · 85 yds · 6:4254% → 65%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
54.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Wash 16Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+2
54.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Wash 18Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 7
OWN 18
-9
53.4%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jalen McMillan) to the Wash 9Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 16
OWN 9
+27
52.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 27 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
53.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
53.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 35Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+17
51.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 17 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
54.1%
Ja'Lynn Polk run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
55.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jalen McMillanSimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
55.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
53.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+18
51.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 18 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
54.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 10 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
54.6%
Cameron Davis run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
54.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 2:2841% → 42%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
59.0%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-5
58.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Heneli Bloomfield) to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+9
58.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 9 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
58.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
58.5%
Jam Griffin run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
56.7%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
57.9%
Luke Loecher punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wash 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8INT TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:2761% → 47%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
60.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 8 yds to the Wash 28Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-37
47.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted for a TD Easton Mascarenas-Arnold return for 37 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9DOWNS
13 plays · 46 yds · 0:5646% → 46%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
45.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 11 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
46.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jalen McMillanSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+21
46.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 21 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
49.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ryan Cooper Jr.) to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
51.1%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start (Roger Rosengarten) to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
50.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 15
OPP 33
0
49.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jack WestoverSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+4
47.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 11
OPP 29
0
45.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
45.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1947% → 45%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
46.6%
Giles Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 35Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+2
45.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Wash 37Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+7
43.9%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 7 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+19
44.6%
Jack McCallister punt for 49 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 19 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -19 yds · 1:3158% → 56%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
42.0%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
42.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-5
43.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Tre'Shaun Harrison) to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 15
OWN 21
-14
43.4%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Cam Bright for a loss of 14 yards to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 29
OWN 7
+23
44.2%
Luke Loecher punt for 41 yds , Jalen McMillan returns for 23 yds to the OrgSt 30 WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Carson Bruener) to the OrgSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13TD
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:1049% → 63%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
48.6%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start (Rome Odunze) to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+1
45.4%
Cameron Davis run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+10
44.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 10 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+6
46.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 6 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
47.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 8 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+6
47.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 6 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 0
OPP 9
-15
48.8%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Troy Fautanu) to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 0
OPP 24
0
48.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 0
OPP 24
0
47.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 0
OPP 24
+24
62.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 24 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 5:5943% → 70%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
56.7%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+12
56.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Anthony Gould for 12 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
55.6%
Ben Gulbranson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+8
52.8%
Jam Griffin run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
52.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 4 yds to the Wash 49Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+7
51.9%
Damien Martinez run for 7 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
51.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Jam GriffinSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
51.8%
Jam Griffin run for no gain to the Wash 42Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+15
53.1%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jeremiah Martin) to the Wash 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
49.8%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the Wash 24Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+5
49.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the Wash 19Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+19
30.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 19 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:4837% → 67%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
36.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 12 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
39.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Wash 48Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
39.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 7 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
39.5%
Cameron Davis run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
39.4%
Cameron Davis run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
42.0%
Cameron Davis run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
41.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 1 yd to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+16
38.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 16 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2746% → 44%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
53.9%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
50.9%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
53.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Anthony GouldSimilar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
56.3%
Luke Loecher punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2560% → 57%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
60.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Wayne TaulapapaSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
60.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
57.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Devin CulpSimilar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
57.0%
Jack McCallister punt for 43 yds, downed at the OrgSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 4:5747% → 46%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
53.3%
Jam Griffin run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
50.2%
Jam Griffin run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
49.8%
Damien Martinez run for 8 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+3
48.8%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the Wash 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
47.7%
Silas Bolden run for 2 yds to the Wash 39Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-5
47.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Taliese Fuaga) to the Wash 44Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 13
OPP 44
-5
49.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Wash 49Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 18
OPP 49
-6
50.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jam Griffin for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 24
OWN 45
+7
52.5%
Jam Griffin run for 7 yds to the Wash 48Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 17
OPP 48
0
54.1%
Luke Loecher punt for 45 yds, downed at the Wash 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19FG
23 plays · 92 yds · 4:2059% → 94%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
58.7%
Cameron Davis run for 2 yds to the Wash 5Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+3
58.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 3 yds to the Wash 8Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+8
55.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 8 yds to the Wash 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
59.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 7 yds to the Wash 23Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+15
60.5%
Cameron Davis run for 15 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
61.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 3 yds to the Wash 41Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
63.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+13
59.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 13 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
65.7%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kitan Oladapo) to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
68.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 10 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
68.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
68.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 4 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+6
65.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 6 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
68.6%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+12
66.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 12 yds to the OrgSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
70.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Cameron DavisSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
68.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jalen McMillanSimilar
Q4 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
65.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
94.7%
Peyton Henry 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+15
93.7%
OREGON ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · 36 yds · 0:0610% → 11%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+15
89.6%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
88.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jack Velling for 4 yds to the OrgSt 36 lat. to Jam Griffin for a loss of 10 yards to the OrgSt 36 lat. to Ben Gulbranson for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 36 lat. to Damien Martinez for 29 yds Damien Martinez fumbled, recovered by Wash Kamren Fabiculanan , return for 3 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:08
Peyton Henry 22 Yd Field Goal
+29.4
TD · Q4 11:36
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
+28.7
TD · Q3 0:39
Deshaun Fenwick run for 19 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)
-19.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com