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ORST

Oregon State 45 at USC 27

USC
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:24 · Chance Nolan run for 14 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Home team on offense−0.4Pregame prior+29.9Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:50: Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 13 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +10.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:44: Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 36 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) (Everett Hayes KICK) (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +12.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:06: Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 17 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +12.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:33: Jack Colletto run for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +18.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:26: Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +7.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:24ORST 4th & 3 at USC 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:34ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:10USC 4th & 7 at ORST 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    77.5%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:27USC 4th & 9 at USC 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:15USC 4th & 11 at USC 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  6. Q4 6:29USC 4th & 24 at ORST 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 4:21ORST 4th & 13 at USC 41, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    95.3%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  8. Q4 0:58ORST 4th & 4 at USC 24, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:58ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:14USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:23USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:50ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:44ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:06ORST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:33ORST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:14ORST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:26USC Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:3582% → 82%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
81.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Trigg for 15 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
81.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+12
81.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 12 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
81.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
81.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
81.5%
Kedon Slovis pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
81.5%
Kedon Slovis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:5719% → 21%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
81.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 13 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
81.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
80.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+2
80.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 2 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+14
80.6%
Chance Nolan run for 14 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
79.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 27 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3079% → 81%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
79.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
79.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
78.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 10 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+33
78.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 18 yds to the OREGONST 37 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Simon Sandberg) to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
79.1%
(08:19) Slovis,Kedon pass incomplete to London,Drake PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Austin,Alex) 15 yards from OSU22 to OSU07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
80.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4INT
11 plays · 67 yds · 5:0420% → 23%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
79.9%
Chance Nolan run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
79.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 15 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
79.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 9 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+4
78.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
78.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 9 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+4
78.0%
Silas Bolden run for 4 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
77.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
77.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+6
77.6%
Jack Colletto run for 6 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
77.0%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:3278% → 82%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
78.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
78.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 14 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
78.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 6 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
78.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+10
78.4%
(01:42) Slovis,Kedon pass complete to London,Drake for 2 yards to the USC42 (Hughes-Murray,Andrezj; Austin,Alex) PENALTY OSU Holding (Wright,Rejzohn) 10 yards from USC40 to USC50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
50
+10
78.8%
(01:02) Slovis,Kedon sacked for loss of 8 yards to the USC42 (Grant,Jaydon) PENALTY OSU Holding (Austin,Alex) 10 yards from USC50 to OSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
78.8%
(00:35) Ingram,Keaontay rush for 0 yards to the OSU40 (Roberts,Avery) PENALTY OSU Holding (Schad,Keonte) 10 yards from OSU40 to OSU30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
79.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
78.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 2 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+7
78.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 7 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q2 13:53
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
78.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
82.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 9 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:4019% → 19%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
80.7%
(13:22) Baylor,B.J. rush for 44 yards gain to the USC31 (Steele,Chris) PENALTY OSU Holding (Keobounnam,Nous) 10 yards from OSU25 to OSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+7
80.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
80.8%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Teagan QuitorianoSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+13
81.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 13 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.3%
Trey Lowe run for no gain to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
80.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+6
80.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 6 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
80.6%
Chance Nolan punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2481% → 81%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+47
80.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 32 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Alex Austin) to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
82.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
81.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 3 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
81.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Gary Bryant Jr.Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
81.1%
Ben Griffiths punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 4:5919% → 32%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
81.0%
Chance Nolan run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+10
80.8%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
80.7%
(06:49) Nolan,Chance pass incomplete to Baylor,B.J. PENALTY USC Face Mask (Ta'ufo'ou,Stanley) 15 yards from OSU26 to OSU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
79.9%
Jesiah Irish run for 15 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
79.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+5
78.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
78.1%
Silas Bolden run for 7 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+6
77.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
77.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 5 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
77.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for no gain to the USC 13Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
68.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 13 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1474% → 72%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
73.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
74.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
74.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the USC 38Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
73.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+3
72.2%
Ben Griffiths punt for 57 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for 3 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10TD
5 plays · 92 yds · 0:2829% → 46%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
71.1%
Chance Nolan run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+26
70.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 26 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
67.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to B.J. Baylor for 9 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+7
66.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 7 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
54.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 36 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) (Everett Hayes KICK) (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 0:3960% → 71%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
60.4%
(00:39) Slovis,Kedon pass incomplete to Trigg,Michael PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Grant,Jaydon) 15 yards from USC28 to USC43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
61.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 20 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
63.1%
(00:25) Slovis,Kedon pass intercepted by Grant,Jaydon at OSU05 PENALTY OSU Holding (Austin,Alex) 10 yards from OSU37 to OSU27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
65.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+18
64.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Trigg for 18 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
70.7%
Parker Lewis 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4337% → 54%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
63.5%
(15:00) Nolan,Chance pass complete to Musgrave,Luke for 4 yards to the OSU29 (Tuipulotu,Tuli; Mauga,Kana'i) PENALTY OSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Levengood,Jake) 5 yards from OSU25 to OSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+40
63.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 40 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
60.2%
USC Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Drake Jackson) to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
58.6%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 1 yd to the USC 21Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+8
58.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 8 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
59.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 2 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
57.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Makiya Tongue) to the USC 17Similar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 16
OPP 17
+17
45.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 17 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:2347% → 40%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
47.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
46.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Malcolm EppsSimilar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+14
45.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 14 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
44.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Gary Bryant Jr.Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
44.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 9 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-5
45.0%
PENALTY USC False Start (Ford,Courtland) 5 yards from USC37 to USC32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-5
42.9%
PENALTY USC False Start (Ford,Courtland) 5 yards from USC32 to USC27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
41.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Malcolm EppsSimilar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 11
OWN 27
+9
40.2%
Ben Griffiths punt for 41 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for 9 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:2460% → 82%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
40.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+4
39.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+33
38.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 33 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
36.8%
(07:28) Nolan,Chance pass incomplete to Bradford,Trevon PENALTY USC Holding (Williams,Chase) 11 yard from USC20 to USC09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
36.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.2%
Jack Colletto run for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FUMBLE
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:0924% → 22%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.9%
(06:33) Slovis,Kedon pass incomplete to London,Drake PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Austin,Alex) 5 yards from USC25 to USC30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
23.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 1 yd to the USC 29Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+10
22.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 10 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
24.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
23.6%
Kedon Slovis run for 1 yd to the USC 42Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+11
22.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Trigg for 11 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
22.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
22.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Gary Bryant Jr.Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+5
21.9%
Kedon Slovis run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 36 Kedon Slovis fumbled, forced by Avery Roberts, recovered by OrgSt Omar SpeightsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 4:0688% → 99%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
12.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
11.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
10.7%
Tre'Shaun Harrison run for 11 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+26
9.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 11 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chris Steele) to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
8.8%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 9 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+4
8.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
7.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.5%
Jack Colletto run for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:241% → 8%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
1.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
1.4%
PENALTY USC False Start (Jimmons,Liam) 5 yards from USC34 to USC29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
1.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for no gain to the USC 29Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+26
1.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 26 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
1.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 9 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+3
1.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
1.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 9 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+2
1.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
1.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
1.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+16
1.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 16 yds to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
8.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18INT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5195% → 96%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
5.1%
(10:21) Fenwick,Deshaun rush for 8 yards gain to the USC37 (Goforth,Ralen; Lichtenstein,Jacob) PENALTY OSU Holding (Gray,Joshua) 10 yards from USC45 to OSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+10
4.9%
Chance Nolan run for 10 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
4.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
4.3%
Chance Nolan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:426% → 8%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
5.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 25 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+29
6.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 29 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-6
6.9%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Andrzej Hughes-Murray for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 16
OPP 21
-15
6.2%
USC Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-15 Yards) to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 31
OPP 36
-5
5.6%
PENALTY USC False Start (Jimmons,Liam) 5 yards from OSU36 to OSU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 36
OPP 41
+12
5.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 12 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 24
OPP 29
+46
7.7%
Parker Lewis 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 8 yds · 1:5295% → 96%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
5.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
5.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-14
4.5%
(05:09) Fenwick,Deshaun rush for 1 yard gain to the USC37 (Ta'ufo'ou,Stanley; Lichtenstein,Jacob) PENALTY OSU Illegal Block in Back (Flemings,Champ) 14 yards from USC38 to OSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 24
OWN 48
+10
4.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 10 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+1
4.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the USC 41Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 13
OPP 41
0
4.0%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Zeriah BeasonSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
4.2%
Luke Loecher punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the USC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:304% → 3%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
3.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 2 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+7
3.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 7 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+5
3.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
3.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
3.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 1 yd to the USC 22Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+11
3.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 11 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
3.2%
Kedon Slovis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22FG
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:3098% → 99%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
2.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+2
1.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
1.8%
Deshaun Fenwick run for no gain to the USC 24Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
0.9%
Everett Hayes 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Kedon Slovis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
0.8%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 45Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-1
0.8%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:33
Jack Colletto run for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
-18
TD · Q2 0:44
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 36 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) (Everett Hayes KICK) (Everett Hayes KICK)
-12.5
TD · Q3 12:06
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 17 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
-12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com