Try the model
SJSU

San José State 21 at Oregon State 35

ORST
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Reser Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:05 · Nick Porebski punt for 50 yds , Tyler Ervin returns for 2 yds to the SJSt 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+10.1Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:24: Tyler Ervin 6 Yd Run (Austin Lopez Kick) — SJSU win probability +8.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:08: Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +10.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:34: Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 31 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +17.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:15: Seth Collins run for 10 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +15.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:35: Caleb Saulo 41 Yd Interception Return for a TD (Garrett Owens Kick) — ORST win probability +13.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 11
  1. Q1 2:11SJSU 4th & 2 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:05ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:28SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:31ORST 4th & 3 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:28SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:59SJSU 4th & 13 at SJSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−1.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:47SJSU 4th & 1 at ORST 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.3%−1.8
    80% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−6.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:47ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:16SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 30, up 7
    Close callPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:08ORST 4th & 14 at SJSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−2.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:09ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:56SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:56SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 33, tied
    Close callWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:34SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 28, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:35ORST 4th & 12 at SJSU 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−4.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:09ORST 4th & 29 at SJSU 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:14SJSU 4th & 4 at ORST 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:02ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:15SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 15, down 14
    Close callPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:13SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:21ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:24SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:11ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:08SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:34ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:15ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:35ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3737% → 39%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.2%
Kenny Potter run for 6 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
63.1%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Winston for 13 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
63.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
63.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 5 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
62.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
62.8%
Tim Crawley run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+21
62.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 21 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
62.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 7 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+10
62.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
60.7%
Tyler Ervin 4 Yd Run (Austin Lopez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:3961% → 64%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
61.3%
Seth Collins pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 2 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
61.1%
Seth Collins run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+11
61.0%
Seth Collins pass complete to Victor Bolden for 11 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
61.1%
Seth Collins pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 15 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
61.4%
Storm Woods run for 1 yd to the SJSt 29Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+10
61.3%
Seth Collins run for 10 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
61.1%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-1
61.1%
Seth Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 20Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+16
60.5%
Seth Collins pass complete to Storm Woods for 16 yds to the SJSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
63.7%
Seth Collins 4 Yd Run (Garrett Owens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:0038% → 39%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
62.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 7 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+7
62.2%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 7 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
62.2%
Jarrod Lawson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
61.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SJSt 40Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
61.4%
Jarrod Lawson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
61.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 5 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
61.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 2
50
0
60.6%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 2
50
0
61.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5863% → 61%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.5%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
62.4%
Storm Woods run for no gain to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
61.7%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Xavier HawkinsSimilar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+2
61.3%
Nick Porebski punt for 50 yds , Tyler Ervin returns for 2 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1439% → 38%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
61.1%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 7 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
60.2%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SJSt 39Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-2
60.4%
Kenny Potter run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 37Similar
Q2 14:28
4TH & 5
OWN 37
-2
61.9%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 55 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 6 Rahmel Dockery fumbled, recovered by SJSt Shane SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 14:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
53.8%
Tyler Ervin 6 Yd Run (Austin Lopez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4056% → 56%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
55.7%
Victor Bolden run for 18 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
56.6%
Chris Brown run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 3
50
+1
57.1%
Chris Brown run for 1 yd to the SJSt 49Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-1
56.8%
Chris Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 3
50
0
55.6%
Nick Porebski punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3646% → 45%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
54.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
53.5%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Shane SmithSimilar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
54.1%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Billy FreemanSimilar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+12
55.0%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 54 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 12 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:0255% → 65%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
54.6%
Seth Collins pass complete to Victor Bolden for 20 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+30
56.3%
Seth Collins run for 30 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
57.0%
Storm Woods run for 6 yds to the SJSt 13Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+13
64.6%
Storm Woods run for 13 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:5740% → 39%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
60.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+2
59.1%
Jarrod Lawson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
59.3%
Hansell Wilson run for 8 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-3
57.3%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-8
57.7%
Joe Gray sacked by Kyle Peko for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 35Similar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
60.6%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
61.8%
Seth Collins pass intercepted Cleveland Wallace III return for no gain to the OrgSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:3344% → 55%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
55.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 7 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+2
55.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
56.0%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+1
58.1%
Chris Dadson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
55.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
55.4%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
44.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0350% → 47%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
49.5%
Victor Bolden run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+4
48.5%
Seth Collins pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 4 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
47.4%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
46.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 51 yds, downed at the SJSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:2254% → 55%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
46.5%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
46.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+5
46.1%
Jarrod Lawson run for 5 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+18
44.9%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 62 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 18 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15MISSED FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 0:5546% → 45%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
46.4%
Seth Collins run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
46.5%
Seth Collins pass complete to Storm Woods for 10 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
48.2%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 10 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
49.5%
Seth Collins pass complete to Storm Woods for 4 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+15
49.5%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the SJSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
50.9%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
50.7%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+48
45.2%
Garrett Owens 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
42.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4446% → 45%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
45.9%
Seth Collins run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
47.6%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
47.6%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+4
45.5%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 4 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
45.2%
Nick Porebski punt for 53 yds, downed at the SJSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:5156% → 57%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
43.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 2Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+12
43.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 12 yds to the SJSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
42.5%
Jarrod Lawson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+1
42.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 18Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+4
42.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
43.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 66 yds, downed at the OrgSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 88 yds · 2:1142% → 65%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+38
42.2%
Storm Woods run for 38 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
50
+2
46.2%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+6
46.1%
Seth Collins run for 6 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+10
45.8%
Storm Woods run for 10 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
47.5%
Seth Collins run for 1 yd to the SJSt 31Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+31
65.1%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 31 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:2943% → 42%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
56.7%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Billy FreemanSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
56.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jarrod Lawson for 1 yd to the SJSt 27Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+6
57.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 6 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q3 5:56
4TH & 3
OWN 33
-18
57.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 18 yards to the SJSt 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SJSt Michael CarrizosaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:1265% → 81%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
65.3%
Seth Collins run for 5 yds to the SJSt 10Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
80.6%
Seth Collins run for 10 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22INT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2827% → 13%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
72.9%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Billy FreemanSimilar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
74.1%
Jarrod Lawson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+41
87.2%
Caleb Saulo 41 Yd Interception Return for a TD (Garrett Owens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3912% → 12%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
87.9%
Malik Watson pass complete to Billy Freeman for 6 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-5
87.3%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 20Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+6
88.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+2
88.0%
Malik Watson pass complete to Tim Crawley for 2 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q3 1:34
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+4
88.5%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 60 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 4 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24MISSED FG
17 plays · 62 yds · 5:4492% → 94%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
92.2%
Storm Woods run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+4
92.5%
Seth Collins pass complete to Xavier Hawkins for 4 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
92.6%
Storm Woods run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 35 OREGON ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 12
OWN 25
+22
92.7%
Seth Collins run for 22 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.3%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
93.2%
Victor Bolden run for 6 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+4
92.9%
Seth Collins pass complete to Noah Togiai for 4 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
93.7%
Storm Woods run for 11 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
93.7%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
93.8%
Storm Woods run for 9 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
93.8%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
94.4%
Deltron Sands run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 21Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+6
94.5%
Seth Collins run for 6 yds to the SJSt 15Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-2
94.9%
Seth Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 17Similar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 7
OPP 17
-5
94.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 22Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+40
94.3%
Garrett Owens 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25INT
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:258% → 10%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+22
91.7%
Malik Watson pass complete to Tyler Winston for 22 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
90.5%
Malik Watson pass intercepted Ricky Ortiz return for no gain to the OrgSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:4095% → 95%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
95.4%
Storm Woods run for 21 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
95.6%
Storm Woods run for 19 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
95.6%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Xavier HawkinsSimilar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-4
95.8%
Seth Collins run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 24Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 14
OPP 24
0
95.6%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 14
OPP 24
-15
95.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the SJSt 39Similar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 29
OPP 39
0
94.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:528% → 3%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.4%
Malik Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
92.4%
Malik Watson pass complete to Billy Freeman for 11 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
92.2%
Malik Watson pass complete to Tyler Winston for 3 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+8
92.1%
Malik Watson pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 8 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
95.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
95.5%
Malik Watson pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
95.5%
Malik Watson pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 3 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+3
96.7%
Malik Watson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
96.8%
Malik Watson pass incomplete to Tyler ErvinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0098% → 98%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.5%
Storm Woods run for no gain to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
98.2%
Storm Woods run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+6
98.3%
Victor Bolden run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
98.2%
Nick Porebski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:292% → 2%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
97.6%
Malik Watson pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 2 yds to the SJSt 15Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
97.6%
Malik Watson pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
97.7%
Malik Watson pass incomplete to Hansell WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
97.7%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 30END OF GAME
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0898% → 99%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
98.4%
Deltron Sands run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+8
98.6%
Deltron Sands run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 12
OWN 42
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 40
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:34
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 31 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+17.6
TD · Q3 5:15
Seth Collins run for 10 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q3 3:35
Caleb Saulo 41 Yd Interception Return for a TD (Garrett Owens Kick)
+13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com