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ORST

Oregon State 24 at California 54

CAL
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:26 · Nick Porebski punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Maurice Harris at the Cal 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Pregame prior+30.2Home team on offense+3.5Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:37: Vic Enwere run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +3.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:49: Jared Goff pass complete to Tre Watson for 45 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +5.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:12: Nick Mitchell pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 29 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +5.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:48: Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 19 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson PAT BLOCKED) — CAL win probability +5.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:23: Nick Mitchell run for 4 yds for a TD, (S. Barrs-Woods Run For Two-point Conversion) — ORST win probability +5.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:48CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 13:28ORST 4th & 9 at CAL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:17CAL 4th & 3 at ORST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    84.5%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:10ORST 4th & 17 at CAL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.6%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:53ORST 4th & 8 at CAL 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:33CAL 4th & 14 at ORST 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:26ORST 4th & 10 at CAL 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:37ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:42ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 33, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:57ORST 4th & 30 at ORST 27, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−1.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:41CAL 4th & 3 at ORST 3, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:50ORST 4th & 2 at CAL 35, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:30ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 27, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 0:58CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:37CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:49CAL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:12ORST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:48CAL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:33CAL Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:23ORST Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:34CAL Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:33ORST Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:35CAL Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
90.9%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Xavier Hawkins for 15 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
90.9%
Paul Lucas run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
90.9%
Nick Mitchell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
90.9%
Nick Mitchell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
90.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.6%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
90.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Khalfani MuhammadSimilar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
90.6%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
90.6%
Cole Leininger punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
90.5%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
90.4%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 2
50
+7
90.4%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Victor Bolden for 7 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
90.4%
Bolden,Victor rush for loss of 1 yard to the CAL44, out-of-bounds (Piatt, Griffin), PENALTY OSU holding (Jarmon, Hunter) 10 yards to the OSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+4
90.5%
Victor Bolden run for 4 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 16
OPP 49
0
90.5%
Nick Mitchell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 16
OPP 49
+7
90.5%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 7 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
90.5%
Nick Porebski punt for 32 yds, downed at the Cal 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4DOWNS
15 plays · 65 yds · 5:0290% → 88%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
89.6%
Daniel Lasco run for 8 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 2
OWN 18
0
89.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for no gain to the Cal 18Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+21
89.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 21 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
89.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 6 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
89.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+6
89.8%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
89.8%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
89.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 7 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+7
89.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-9
89.9%
Jared Goff sacked by Ricky Ortiz for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 19
OPP 41
+4
89.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 4 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 15
OPP 37
-5
89.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 20
OPP 42
+17
89.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 17 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 3
OPP 25
0
88.4%
Jared Goff run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
88.0%
Paul Lucas run for 33 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
87.5%
Paul Lucas run for 3 yds to the Cal 39 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 17
OPP 49
0
87.7%
Nick Mitchell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 17
OPP 49
0
87.8%
Nick Mitchell pass incomplete to Xavier HawkinsSimilar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 17
OPP 49
0
87.9%
Nick Mitchell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 17
OPP 49
+34
88.1%
Nick Porebski punt for 34 yds CALIFORNIA Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 3:0188% → 90%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
87.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 2 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+15
87.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 15 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
87.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
88.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 4 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+2
88.0%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+54
88.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 54 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 4:5611% → 14%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
88.8%
Paul Lucas run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+7
88.9%
Nick Mitchell run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+5
88.7%
Nick Mitchell run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
88.5%
Paul Lucas run for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
88.8%
Nick Mitchell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+15
89.0%
Nick Mitchell run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+6
88.5%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 6 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
88.0%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Noah Togiai for 18 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
87.8%
Paul Lucas run for 2 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
87.7%
Nick Mitchell pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
87.2%
Nick Mitchell run for no gain to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
85.8%
Garrett Owens 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1187% → 87%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
86.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Stephen Anderson) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 15
50
+26
86.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 26 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
86.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
86.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius PoweSimilar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-4
86.4%
Jared Goff sacked by Jonathan Willis for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+45
87.2%
Matt Anderson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
87.5%
Paul Lucas run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+2
87.0%
Paul Lucas run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
87.1%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 3 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+13
86.9%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 13 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
86.6%
Victor Bolden run for no gain to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
86.7%
Nick Mitchell pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
87.3%
Nick Mitchell pass incomplete to Xavier HawkinsSimilar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
87.8%
Nick Porebski punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Maurice Harris at the Cal 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 1:5787% → 92%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+51
87.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 51 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
88.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
88.4%
Vic Enwere run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
88.5%
Vic Enwere run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
88.5%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+18
88.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 18 yds to the OrgSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.5%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
90.8%
Nick Mitchell run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
90.8%
Paul Lucas run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
90.5%
Paul Lucas run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
90.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 1:5091% → 97%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
91.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 8 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+2
91.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 2 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+24
91.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 24 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
91.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Tre Watson for 9 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-5
91.8%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Harris, Maurice, PENALTY CAL ineligible downfield on pass (Cochran, Aaron) 5 yards to the OSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+45
97.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Tre Watson for 45 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 0:324% → 10%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
95.8%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+11
95.7%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 11 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
95.6%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 5 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+10
95.4%
Mitchell, Nick pass incomplete to Woods,Storm, PENALTY CAL holding (Walker, Cameron) 10 yards to the CAL29, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
89.6%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 29 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
92.5%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:0492% → 97%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+31
91.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 31 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
92.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 14 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
92.2%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
97.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 19 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
96.6%
Paul Lucas run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-2
96.7%
Victor Bolden run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
96.8%
Nick Mitchell pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
96.8%
Nick Porebski punt for 44 yds , Maurice Harris returns for no gain to the Cal 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:4997% → 100%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
97.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 18 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
97.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 21 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
97.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 4 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+19
97.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Vic Enwere for 19 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
97.4%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
99.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:041% → 6%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
99.4%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 16 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+37
99.4%
Damien Haskins run for 37 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
99.3%
Jarmon, Hunter pass incomplete to Togiai, Noah (White, Darius), PENALTY CAL pass interference (White, Darius) 15 yards to the CAL4, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.7%
Nick Mitchell run for 4 yds for a TD, (S. Barrs-Woods Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:4397% → 99%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
96.6%
Tre Watson run for 18 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+32
96.8%
Tre Watson run for 32 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
99.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 29 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 3:541% → 3%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
99.3%
Nick Mitchell run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+6
99.2%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
99.3%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 13 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
99.2%
Victor Bolden run for 14 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.2%
Nick Mitchell pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Cedric DozierSimilar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
99.2%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+10
99.2%
Nick Mitchell run for 10 yds to the Cal 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.1%
Nick Mitchell pass incomplete to Xavier HawkinsSimilar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
99.1%
Damien Haskins run for 3 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+15
99.2%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Storm Barrs-Woods for 15 yds to the Cal 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.0%
Nick Mitchell pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.1%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Noah Togiai for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21INT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce Treggs, broken up by Naji PatrickSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.8%
Vic Enwere run for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
97.9%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Hansen, Chad, PENALTY OSU offside (Peko, Kyle) 5 yards to the CAL37, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
97.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 2 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
97.9%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
97.9%
Vic Enwere run for 4 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
98.0%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
97.9%
Jared Goff pass intercepted Gabe Ovgard return for no gain to the OrgSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
98.1%
McMaryion, Marcus at QB for Oregon State, McMaryion, Marcus pass incomplete to Jarmon, Hunter (White, Darius), PENALTY CAL pass interference (White, Darius) 15 yards to the OSU47, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
98.1%
Woods,Storm rush for 1 yard to the OSU48 (Kragen, Kyle;Nickerson, Hardy), PENALTY OSU clipping (Stanton, Dustin) 15 yards to the OSU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 25
OWN 32
-5
98.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Fred Lauina) to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 30
OWN 27
0
98.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 30
OWN 27
0
98.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 30
OWN 27
0
98.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q3 1:57
4TH & 30
OWN 27
-2
98.2%
Nick Porebski punt for 35 yds , Maurice Harris returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 2:0899% → 99%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
98.6%
Tre Watson run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
98.6%
Tre Watson run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
98.6%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Harris, Maurice, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Hill, Kendall) 15 yards to the OSU23, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
98.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Raymond HudsonSimilar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+13
98.6%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.7%
Tre Watson run for no gain to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
98.7%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q4 13:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
98.9%
Matt Anderson 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:421% → 1%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
98.9%
Paul Lucas run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+33
98.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 33 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
98.9%
Paul Lucas run for 8 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
98.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Storm Barrs-WoodsSimilar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
98.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
98.8%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for no gain to the Cal 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 5:1099% → 100%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.3%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+10
99.3%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Anderson, Stephen, PENALTY OSU holding (Patrick, Naji) 10 yards to the OSU49, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.3%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
99.4%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+8
99.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 8 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
99.4%
Vic Enwere run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
99.4%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-10
99.4%
Watson, Tre rush for 8 yards to the OSU7, out-of-bounds (Decoud, Treston), PENALTY CAL holding (Cochran, Aaron) 10 yards to the OSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+14
99.3%
Tre Watson run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Malik McMorris for 11 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
Marcus McMaryion run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Darius WhiteSimilar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kanawai Noa at the Cal 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 27END OF GAME
8 plays · 50 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+6
99.9%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.9%
Cole Webb run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+8
99.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
99.9%
Chase Forrest run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+1
99.9%
Cole Webb run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+5
99.9%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
99.9%
Cole Webb run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:12
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 29 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q3 9:23
Nick Mitchell run for 4 yds for a TD, (S. Barrs-Woods Run For Two-point Conversion)
-5.6
TD · Q2 0:49
Jared Goff pass complete to Tre Watson for 45 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com