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ORST

Oregon State 42 at Oregon 52

ORE
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2015 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-11.6ORE 81.0%Victor Bolden 78 Yd Punt Return(Garrett Owens Kick)AWAY 35 - HOME 38 · Q4 10:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:09 · Victor Bolden 78 Yd Punt Return (Garrett Owens Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Pregame prior+13.2Home team on offense+8.2Score differential+0.9Garbage-time factor+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 12:02: Marcus McMaryion 6 Yd Run (Garrett Owens Kick) — ORST win probability +6.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:09: Victor Bolden 78 Yd Punt Return (Garrett Owens Kick) — ORST win probability +11.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:43: Bralon Addison 4 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +8.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:05: Ryan Nall 66 Yd Run (Garrett Owens Kick) — ORST win probability +22.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:39: Bralon Addison 24 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +10.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:42ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:44ORE 4th & 7 at ORST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ORST 4th & 14 at ORST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:43ORE 4th & 8 at ORST 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:43ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:11ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:18ORE 4th & 2 at ORST 2, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:12ORE 4th & 1 at ORST 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.9%−1.0
    77% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:09ORE 4th & 26 at ORE 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:39ORST 4th & 7 at ORE 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:38ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:49ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:54ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:36ORE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:24ORE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:18ORST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:16ORST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:12ORE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:02ORST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:09ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:43ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:05ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 4:39ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:223% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.2%
Ryan Nall run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
97.2%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
97.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
97.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 8 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+8
97.2%
Seth Collins run for 8 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
97.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 5 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+12
97.2%
Ryan Nall run for 12 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
96.4%
Seth Collins pass complete to Victor Bolden for 21 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
96.4%
Ryan Nall run for 8 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
95.9%
Seth Collins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 2:4996% → 96%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
96.0%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+5
96.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+2
96.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
96.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 15 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
96.1%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
96.1%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+24
96.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 24 yds to the OrgSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
96.1%
Adams Jr., V. pass complete to Carrington, D. for 8 yards to the OSU10, out-of-bounds (Ovgard, Gabe), PENALTY OSU substitution infraction 5 yards to the OSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 5
OPP 13
+13
95.9%
Bralon Addison 13 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
95.7%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+2
95.7%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
95.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Henry MondeauxSimilar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
95.8%
Nick Porebski punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:1996% → 95%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
95.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 2
50
+25
95.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 25 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
95.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
95.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
95.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Royce FreemanSimilar
Q1 3:44
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
95.2%
Aidan Schneider 39 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Kyle Peko Kyle Peko return for no gain to the OrgSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
95.0%
Seth Collins run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+5
95.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass intercepted Charles Nelson return for 5 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:0095% → 96%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
95.1%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+11
95.0%
Bralon Addison run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+6
95.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
95.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Charles Nelson, broken up by Adam SoesmanSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
95.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for no gain to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+18
95.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 18 yds to the OrgSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
95.2%
Taj Griffin run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
95.7%
Taj Griffin 14 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:545% → 5%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Damien Haskins run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
95.3%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Rodney Hardrick for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
95.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+8
95.4%
Nick Porebski punt for 49 yds , Bralon Addison returns for 8 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:5795% → 95%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
95.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Jalen Brown for 8 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+13
95.4%
Royce Freeman run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
95.4%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
95.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Royce FreemanSimilar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+16
95.4%
Taj Griffin run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
95.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
95.5%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+12
95.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 12 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
95.5%
Tyler Johnstone run for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-3
95.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Kalani Vakameilalo for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+7
95.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 7 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
94.7%
Aidan Schneider 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
94.8%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+8
94.8%
Seth Collins run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
94.7%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
94.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Noah Togiai for 4 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
94.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden, broken up by Reggie DanielsSimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
95.0%
Nick Porebski punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 27Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 6
OPP 0
0
94.6%
PENALTY OSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY ORE unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:3995% → 97%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
94.6%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 22Similar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 15
OWN 22
0
94.5%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 22Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+21
94.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 21 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
94.8%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
94.8%
Taj Griffin run for 2 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+10
94.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 10 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
94.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 28 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
95.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
95.0%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
94.9%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+14
94.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for 14 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.9%
Royce Freeman 3 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:254% → 4%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
96.2%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
96.3%
Seth Collins run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+2
96.2%
Seth Collins run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
96.1%
Nick Porebski punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 0:4097% → 99%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
97.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Darren Carrington, broken up by Kalani VakameilaloSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
96.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 7 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+5
96.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for 5 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
97.1%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 6
50
+13
97.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 13 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
98.5%
Bralon Addison 37 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
97.8%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 20 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 19
OWN 10
0
97.8%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 19
OWN 10
-1
97.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14FUMBLE
7 plays · 59 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
98.3%
Adams Jr., V. pass complete to Carrington, D. for 13 yards to the ORE38 (Chappell, Devin;Mageo, Rommel), PENALTY ORE pass interference 12 yards to the ORE13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+14
98.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 14 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+32
98.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for 32 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
98.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
98.4%
Kirk Merritt run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 16 Kirk Merritt fumbled, forced by Adam Soesman, recovered by OrgSt Devin ChappellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 4:042% → 5%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
97.8%
Seth Collins run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+16
97.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 16 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
97.7%
Victor Bolden run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
97.7%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Victor Bolden, broken up by Khalil OliverSimilar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+33
97.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 33 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
97.4%
Ryan Nall run for 15 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
97.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
97.4%
Victor Bolden run for 9 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+5
97.5%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.2%
Seth Collins 1 Yd Run (Garrett Owens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 69 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+27
96.9%
Royce Freeman run for 27 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
97.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Charles Nelson for 15 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
97.2%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+15
97.2%
Adams Jr., V. pass incomplete to Addison, Bralon, PENALTY OSU pass interference 15 yards to the OSU10, 1ST DOWN ORE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
97.2%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.2%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
97.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
12 plays · 98 yds · 3:463% → 9%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
96.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+14
96.7%
Ryan Nall run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
96.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ryan Nall for 12 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+27
96.4%
Ryan Nall run for 27 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
96.2%
McMaryion, Marcus pass incomplete to Bolden,Victor, PENALTY ORE pass interference 15 yards to the ORE30, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
96.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 3 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-15
96.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 22
OPP 42
+26
96.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Noah Togiai for 26 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
96.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
96.2%
Ryan Nall run for 7 yds to the Oregn 9Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
91.1%
Seth Collins 9 Yd Run (Garrett Owens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:0493% → 98%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
93.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Evan Baylis for 12 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
93.3%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
93.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Jalen Brown, broken up by Treston DecoudSimilar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+8
93.0%
Taj Griffin run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
93.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Taj Griffin for 7 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 3
OPP 21
-12
93.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for a loss of 12 yards to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+14
92.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Taj Griffin for 14 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q3 0:12
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+19
97.5%
Royce Freeman 19 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:103% → 10%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
96.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ryan Nall for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+13
96.9%
Ryan Nall run for 13 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
96.8%
McMaryion, Marcus pass incomplete to Villamin, Jordan, PENALTY ORE pass interference 15 yards to the ORE29, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
96.4%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 34
0
96.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Seth Collins, broken up by Charles NelsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+15
96.9%
OREGON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
96.4%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+15
96.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 15 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.0%
Marcus McMaryion 6 Yd Run (Garrett Owens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20PUNT TD
6 plays · -16 yds · 1:5394% → 81%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-9
93.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Kyle Peko for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 47Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 19
OWN 47
+4
93.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 15
OPP 49
-11
92.6%
Adams Jr., V. pass complete to Nelson, Charles for 20 yards to the OSU29, PENALTY ORE holding 11 yards to the ORE40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 26
OWN 40
0
92.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 26
OWN 40
+78
81.0%
Victor Bolden 78 Yd Punt Return (Garrett Owens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:2683% → 95%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
82.9%
Royce Freeman run for 15 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
84.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 2 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+17
84.5%
Charles Nelson run for 17 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
85.2%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+8
86.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 8 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
86.2%
Taj Griffin run for 18 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.6%
Bralon Addison 4 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:386% → 28%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+66
71.9%
Ryan Nall 66 Yd Run (Garrett Owens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:2683% → 95%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
82.6%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+15
83.3%
Royce Freeman run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
84.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 3 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+6
84.4%
Taj Griffin run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
83.1%
Taj Griffin run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
84.4%
Taj Griffin run for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+24
94.8%
Bralon Addison 24 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
94.4%
Seth Collins pass complete to Ryan Nall for 24 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
93.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 13 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
92.9%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by DeForest Buckner for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 18
OPP 46
0
93.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 18
OPP 46
+11
94.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ryan Nall for 11 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
93.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:1596% → 97%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
95.6%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
96.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
96.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
96.7%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
97.0%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-5
97.0%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-1
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:05
Ryan Nall 66 Yd Run (Garrett Owens Kick)
-22.1
TD · Q4 10:09
Victor Bolden 78 Yd Punt Return (Garrett Owens Kick)
-11.6
TD · Q4 4:39
Bralon Addison 24 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Aidan Schneider Kick)
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com