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UCLA

UCLA 41 at Oregon State 0

ORST
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:01 · Nick Porebski punt for 66 yds, downed at the UCLA 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Home team on offense−6.8Pregame prior−28.8Score differential−3.3Garbage-time factor−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:58: Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 8 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +3.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:46: Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 10 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +6.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:01: Paul Perkins run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +1.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:40: Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan Payton — UCLA win probability +2.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:18: Nate Starks run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +2.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:20ORST 4th & 11 at UCLA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    18.6%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:44UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:08ORST 4th & 20 at ORST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:49UCLA 4th & 19 at ORST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    76.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:31UCLA 4th & 1 at ORST 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%−0.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:01ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:48ORST 4th & 19 at ORST 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−1.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:34UCLA 4th & 1 at ORST 25, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−0.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:45UCLA 4th & 11 at ORST 11, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:37ORST 4th & 8 at UCLA 45, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:50ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 23, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:58UCLA 4th & 11 at UCLA 17, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:30ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 44, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:35UCLA 4th & 10 at ORST 42, up 41
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:26ORST 4th & 6 at UCLA 31, down 41
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 8:58UCLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:46UCLA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:01UCLA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:18UCLA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:01UCLA Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 3:1812% → 13%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.9%
Nick Mitchell run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
12.2%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
12.4%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Victor Bolden for 11 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
12.6%
Nick Mitchell pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
12.8%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+10
13.0%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ishmael Adams) to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
13.2%
Nick Mitchell run for no gain to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
13.4%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
13.6%
Nick Mitchell pass incomplete to Ryan NallSimilar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 6
OPP 37
-5
13.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the UCLA 42Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
13.4%
Nick Porebski punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Ishmael Adams at the UCLA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2187% → 86%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
13.5%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
13.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
13.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
13.8%
Matt Mengel punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Rahmel Dockery at the OrgSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:3614% → 15%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
13.7%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Dustin Stanton) to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+1
13.8%
Nick Mitchell run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+30
14.0%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Victor Bolden for 30 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
14.7%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 3 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
15.0%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 2 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-15
14.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Will Hopkins) to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 20
OWN 46
0
14.8%
Nick Mitchell pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 20
OWN 46
0
14.8%
Nick Porebski punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4PUNT
14 plays · 40 yds · 5:1185% → 82%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
15.0%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
15.1%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+9
15.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 9 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
15.5%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
15.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+16
15.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 16 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
15.7%
Paul Perkins run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+6
15.8%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
15.9%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Alex Redmond) to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 15
OPP 36
-10
16.3%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alex Redmond) to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 25
OPP 46
+14
16.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 14 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 11
OPP 32
-8
16.6%
Josh Rosen sacked by Bright Ugwoegbu for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 19
OPP 40
0
17.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q1 2:49
4TH & 19
OPP 40
0
17.9%
Matt Mengel punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:2618% → 21%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
18.0%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+6
18.5%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+26
18.6%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 26 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
19.8%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+8
20.3%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 8 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
20.7%
Nick Mitchell run for 5 yds to the UCLA 34 Nick Mitchell fumbled, forced by Kenny Young, recovered by UCLA Jacob Tuioti-MarinerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:2981% → 81%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
18.8%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+12
18.4%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaswha James) to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
18.2%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Conor McDermott) to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+4
19.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 11
50
+7
18.8%
Josh Rosen run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+14
18.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 14 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
18.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+9
19.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 9 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+2
19.5%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+38
19.2%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:2520% → 21%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.1%
Nick Mitchell run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
20.5%
Nick Mitchell pass intercepted Randall Goforth return for 6 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:3781% → 84%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
19.0%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+19
18.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 19 yds to the OrgSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
18.8%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+4
18.8%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+2
19.5%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
19.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
15.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 8 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3416% → 15%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
15.6%
Ryan Nall run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
16.1%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
15.4%
Nick Mitchell sacked by Takkarist McKinley for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
14.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 66 yds, downed at the UCLA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10TD
10 plays · 96 yds · 3:5484% → 91%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
16.1%
Soso Jamabo run for 6 yds to the UCLA 10Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+10
16.1%
Soso Jamabo run for 10 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
16.1%
Josh Rosen run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 14 Josh Rosen fumbled, recovered by UCLA Nate IeseSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 16
OWN 14
-5
16.4%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Kolton Miller) to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 21
OWN 9
+10
16.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Iese for 10 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+63
17.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 63 yds to the OrgSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
15.3%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+13
15.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 13 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
15.5%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Alex Redmond) to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q2 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
9.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 10 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11INT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:1411% → 11%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.1%
Nick Mitchell pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.0%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
11.2%
Nick Mitchell pass intercepted John Johnson return for no gain to the UCLA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:0991% → 92%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+51
9.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 51 yds to the OrgSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
8.0%
Paul Perkins run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 8 yds · 1:078% → 8%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
8.2%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
9.1%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 10 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
9.5%
Ryan Nall run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
9.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+4
8.4%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 4 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+7
8.8%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Noah Togiai for 7 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-15
9.1%
Nick Mitchell sacked by Takkarist McKinley for a loss of 15 yards to the OrgSt 33 Nick Mitchell fumbled, forced by Takkarist McKinley, recovered by OrgSt Nick Mitchell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 19
OWN 33
0
8.0%
Nick Porebski punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:4094% → 95%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
5.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
5.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Starks for no gain to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+14
5.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 14 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 1:1295% → 97%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+27
5.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 27 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
5.1%
Paul Perkins run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+2
4.9%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
5.3%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+14
5.7%
Paul Perkins run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
2.9%
Nate Starks run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16INT
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:373% → 2%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.6%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Victor Bolden for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
2.3%
Nick Mitchell run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
2.4%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Noah Togiai for 6 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+16
2.2%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 16 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
2.1%
Nick Mitchell pass complete to Noah Togiai for 5 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+5
1.9%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 5 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
1.9%
Nick Mitchell sacked by Eli Ankou for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 36Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 15
OPP 36
0
1.7%
Nick Mitchell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 15
OPP 36
0
1.7%
Nick Mitchell pass intercepted Jaleel Wadood return for no gain to the UCLA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17FG
17 plays · 78 yds · 4:3298% → 99%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
2.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+9
2.3%
Paul Perkins run for 9 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 1
OWN 20
-5
2.0%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Caleb Benenoch) to the UCLA 15Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+7
2.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 7 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
2.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 20 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
2.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Paul PerkinsSimilar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+29
2.4%
Nate Starks run for 29 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
2.1%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
2.1%
Nate Starks run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+7
1.8%
Paul Perkins run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
1.9%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+12
1.8%
Josh Rosen run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
1.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Colby CyburtSimilar
Q3 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
1.4%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
1.4%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Conor McDermott) to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
1.7%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q3 4:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
1.2%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:581% → 1%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
0.8%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 4 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (Kenny Young) to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
0.9%
Paul Lucas run for 2 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
0.8%
Nick Mitchell pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
0.8%
Nick Mitchell pass incomplete to Storm Barrs-WoodsSimilar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 8
OPP 45
-3
0.8%
Nick Porebski punt for 35 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 7 Ishmael Adams fumbled, recovered by UCLA Ishmael AdamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 3:2999% → 100%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
0.8%
Soso Jamabo run for 7 yds to the UCLA 14Similar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
0.7%
Soso Jamabo run for 13 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+4
0.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 4 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
0.6%
Soso Jamabo run for 7 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
0.6%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 4 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
0.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 6 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+5
0.5%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
0.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 17 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
0.4%
Soso Jamabo run for 30 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
0.2%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+1
0.2%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-6
0.2%
Xavier Hawkins run for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
0.2%
Nick Porebski punt for 59 yds, downed at the UCLA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
0.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the UCLA 19Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+3
0.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 3 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 6
OWN 22
-5
0.3%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 17Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 11
OWN 17
0
0.3%
Jerry Neuheisel pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
0.3%
Matt Mengel punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Rahmel Dockery at the OrgSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:230% → 0%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
0.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
0.1%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
0.1%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for no gain to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
0.1%
Nick Porebski punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ishmael Adams at the UCLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:40100% → 100%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
0.2%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 5 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+11
0.2%
Soso Jamabo run for 11 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
0.2%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
0.2%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Alex Van Dyke for 7 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+4
0.2%
Soso Jamabo run for 4 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
0.2%
Jerry Neuheisel pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+19
0.2%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Austin Roberts for 19 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.1%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for no gain to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
0.1%
Jerry Neuheisel pass incomplete to Alex Van DykeSimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
0.1%
Jerry Neuheisel pass incomplete to Alex Van DykeSimilar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
0.2%
Matt Mengel punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Rahmel Dockery at the OrgSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 51 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+47
0.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 47 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
0.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
0.1%
Storm Barrs-Woods run for 4 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
0.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 6
OPP 31
0
0.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25END OF GAME
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:10100% → 100%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
0.1%
Roosevelt Davis run for 12 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
0.1%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Logan Sweet for 6 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
0.1%
Roosevelt Davis run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+8
0.1%
Roosevelt Davis run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
0.1%
Roosevelt Davis run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
0.1%
Roosevelt Davis run for no gain to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+15
0.1%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 15 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
0.1%
Roosevelt Davis run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+5
0.1%
Jake Hall pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 5 yds to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
0.1%
Roosevelt Davis run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
0.1%
Roosevelt Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:46
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 10 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
-6.2
TD · Q2 8:58
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 8 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
-3.3
TD · Q3 13:18
Nate Starks run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
-2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com