2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreORST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:07 · Gevani McCoy pass intercepted, touchback. Michael Coats Jr. return for no gain
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 5:58: Savion Red run for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +18.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 13:37: Savion Red run for 6 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +19.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:43: Gevani McCoy pass intercepted Kitan Crawford return for 52 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +22.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:59: Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ORST win probability +24.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:57: Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 3 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +31.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 2:28ORST 4th & 3 at NEV 3, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.2%44% to convertField goal53.8%−0.493% to makePunt51.6%−2.6average punt
- Q2 5:53ORST 4th & 4 at NEV 4, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snapGo for it42.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call41.3%−0.693% to makePunt35.0%−7.0average punt
- Q2 1:43NEV 4th & 16 at ORST 33, up 4Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 54.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.3%−1.116% to convertField goal54.5%49% to makePunt53.3%−1.2average punt
- Q3 13:31NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snapGo for it44.2%−0.652% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.8%average punt
- Q4 5:03ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 44, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snapGo for it18.9%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%average punt
- Q4 0:58NEV 4th & 15 at NEV 47, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snapGo for it89.7%−1.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 10:48ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.8%97% to makeGo for two55.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:51NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.9%97% to makeGo for two45.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:44NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.9%97% to makeGo for two54.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:38ORST Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.7%97% to makeGo for two55.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 11:04ORST Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.6%97% to makeGo for two68.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:58NEV Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.7%97% to makeGo for two42.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:37NEV Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.9%97% to makeGo for two66.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 10:43NEV Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:59ORST Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick22.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call22.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 3:57NEV Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.0%97% to makeGo for two94.2%−0.745% to convert
- Q4 1:57ORST Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.4%97% to makeGo for two7.9%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartORSTDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 4:1255% → 56%
NEVDrive 2TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5745% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3DOWNS13 plays · 53 yds · 5:2153% → 53%
Q1 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
46.8%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 3 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
47.1%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 7 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
46.3%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 25 yds to the NEV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+9
46.0%
(04:16) MCCOY, Gevani pass short to the right incomplete intended for TERRY II, Jermaine broken up by MALDONADO, Jonathan at the NEV14, clock 04:13. PENALTY NEV Holding on ROPATI, Nelson enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the NEV17 to the NEV8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
46.0%
(04:12) HANKERSON, Anthony rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the NEV0, TOUCHDOWN OSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 04:08 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY OSU Holding on CAUFIELD, Bryce enforced 10 yards from the NEV8 to the NEV18 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+10
46.1%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 10 yds to the NEV 8Similar
Q1 2:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-22
46.8%
Gevani McCoy pass intercepted Tori Daffin return for 22 yds to the NEV 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4TD13 plays · 78 yds · 6:3048% → 59%
ORSTDrive 5FG10 plays · 71 yds · 4:4944% → 47%
NEVDrive 6DOWNS13 plays · 43 yds · 4:0955% → 56%
Q2 2:41
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+16
58.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 16 yds to the ORST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7TD5 plays · 68 yds · 1:0745% → 62%
NEVDrive 8END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2846% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10TD6 plays · 67 yds · 2:2757% → 72%
NEVDrive 11TD9 plays · 75 yds · 5:0530% → 51%
ORSTDrive 12INT11 plays · 38 yds · 4:2357% → 55%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
42.6%
Gevani McCoy run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORST 24 Gevani McCoy fumbled, recovered by ORST Gevani McCoy G. McCoy return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+10
43.0%
MCCOY, Gevani pass to the right incomplete intended for TERRY II, Jermaine thrown to the OSU40, clock 04:28. PENALTY NEV Holding on SAVAGE, Caine enforced 10 yards from the OSU27 to the OSU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
40.3%
(04:28) MCCOY, Gevani pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CLEMONS, Darrius thrown to the NEV42, clock 04:22. PENALTY NEV Pass Interference on BROWN, Chad enforced 15 yards to the NEV48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
37.9%
Gevani McCoy run for no gain to the NEV 36 Gevani McCoy fumbled, recovered by ORST Gevani McCoy G. McCoy return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
38.6%
Gevani McCoy pass intercepted Michael Coats Jr. return for no gain to the NEV 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:5148% → 71%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
52.3%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Brendon Lewis for 18 yds to the ORST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14INT TD8 plays · 22 yds · 2:5135% → 16%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.2%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 5 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
65.8%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 6 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-52
84.4%
Gevani McCoy pass intercepted Kitan Crawford return for 52 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3712% → 37%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
88.3%
Gevani McCoy sacked by Tongiaki Mateialona for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 24Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
88.7%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 10 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
87.4%
Nevada Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Drue Watts) to the NEV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
87.0%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 7 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+11
87.6%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 11 yds to the NEV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
86.9%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 11 yds to the NEV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:5533% → 25%
Q4 5:51
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-4
70.2%
Gevani McCoy sacked by Kristopher Ross for a loss of 4 yards to the ORST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD5 plays · 80 yds · 1:0184% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:006% → 38%
Q4 3:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
94.0%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 4 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
50
+1
94.0%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 1 yd to the NEV 49Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+8
94.0%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 8 yds to the NEV 41Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+31
93.8%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 31 yds to the NEV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.7%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 3 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT7 plays · -5 yds · 0:5388% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20INT9 plays · 55 yds · 0:4023% → 37%
Q4 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+24
79.1%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 24 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
74.5%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 16 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
69.6%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 9 yds to the NEV 38Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+6
67.3%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 6 yds to the NEV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
63.2%
Gevani McCoy pass intercepted, touchback. Michael Coats Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+36.8
TD · Q4 1:57
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 3 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
-31.2
TD · Q4 6:59
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-24.3