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ORST

Oregon State 0 at Air Force 28

AF
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:26 · Gabarri Johnson sacked by David Santiago for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Home team on offense+29.0Score differential+20.9Pregame prior−2.1Garbage-time factor+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.9Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:45: Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +7.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:41: Anthony Hankerson run for 12 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST down — ORST win probability +5.5 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:43: Quentin Hayes run for 28 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down — AF win probability +7.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:44: Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the ORST 30 — AF win probability +5.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:58: Dylan Carson run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 10:04AF 4th & 4 at ORST 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:56ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:11AF 4th & 13 at ORST 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:55AF 4th & 4 at AF 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:40ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:47ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00AF 4th & 4 at ORST 34, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.7%−1.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:09ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 34, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:51ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.1%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:16ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 31, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:26ORST 4th & 11 at AF 40, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    34% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:22ORST 4th & 8 at AF 32, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:18AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:45AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:58AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:05AF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:4138% → 44%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+3
38.0%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
38.3%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
38.6%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+11
38.9%
Kade Frew run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
50
-1
39.3%
Kade Frew run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+5
39.5%
Kade Frew run for 5 yds to the ORST 46Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+2
39.9%
Kade Frew run for 2 yds to the ORST 44Similar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+36
40.0%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Cade Harris for 36 yds to the ORST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
40.9%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the ORST 5Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
41.1%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the ORST 4Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.6%
Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2057% → 56%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the ORST 25Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.3%
Gevani McCoy run for 1 yd to the ORST 26Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
44.0%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
44.4%
Josh Green punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:4544% → 47%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
44.0%
Dylan Carson run for 8 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
45.1%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
45.3%
Kade Frew run for 29 yds to the ORST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
46.3%
Cameron Breier run for 5 yds to the ORST 25Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+8
46.6%
Quentin Hayes run for 8 yds to the ORST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
47.2%
Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the ORST 17Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
47.7%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the ORST 16Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-4
47.7%
Cade Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the ORST 20Similar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+38
46.5%
Matthew Dapore 38 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4INT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:1653% → 53%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
46.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the ORST 21Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+16
47.2%
Gabarri Johnson run for 16 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
46.8%
Gabarri Johnson run for 4 yds to the ORST 41Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
46.6%
Gabarri Johnson run for 1 yd to the ORST 42Similar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+12
47.3%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Trent Walker for 12 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
46.7%
Gabarri Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
47.1%
Gabarri Johnson pass intercepted Camby Goff return for no gain to the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4549% → 50%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
49.4%
Kade Frew run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+2
49.3%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+10
49.2%
Quentin Hayes run for 10 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 11:55
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
49.9%
Luke Freer punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:0849% → 47%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+18
50.8%
Gevani McCoy run for 18 yds to the ORST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
50.7%
Salahadin Allah run for 4 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-1
50.8%
Gevani McCoy sacked by Grant Uyl and David Santiago for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 29Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
52.6%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
53.5%
Josh Green punt for 68 yds, downed at the AFA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
9 plays · 97 yds · 4:4556% → 70%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
56.2%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+3
56.2%
Kade Frew run for 3 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+25
59.2%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Jared Roznos for 25 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+29
60.2%
Brandon Engel pass complete to Quentin Hayes for 29 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
62.9%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the ORST 36Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+32
63.2%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Cade Harris for 32 yds to the ORST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
63.0%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the ORST 1Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.3%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:5435% → 32%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
64.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 12 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
64.3%
Gabarri Johnson sacked by Osaro Aihie for a loss of 9 yards to the ORST 28Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+9
66.3%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 9 yds to the ORST 37Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
66.9%
Gabarri Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
67.8%
Josh Green punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:4375% → 77%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
75.2%
Quentin Hayes run for 28 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
75.5%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the ORST 48Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
76.3%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the ORST 43Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
75.5%
Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the ORST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
77.4%
Quentin Hayes sacked by Nikko Taylor and Zakaih Saez for a loss of 4 yards to the ORST 44Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+2
79.5%
Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the ORST 42Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+8
77.3%
Dylan Carson run for 8 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+52
76.7%
Matthew Dapore 52 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5027% → 26%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.8%
Gabarri Johnson run for 8 yds to the ORST 33Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
71.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORST 31Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
73.4%
Gabarri Johnson run for 3 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
74.3%
Josh Green punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11FUMBLE
16 plays · 74 yds · 8:3376% → 87%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
76.1%
Kade Frew run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 12Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+5
76.5%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+15
76.6%
(11:55) HAYES, Quentin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Quin thrown to the OSU40, clock 11:50. PENALTY OSU Pass Interference on IVY JR., Tyrice enforced 15 yards to the AF32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
77.7%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
78.6%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+4
78.5%
Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
80.0%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+10
81.0%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Kade Frew for 10 yds to the ORST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
81.5%
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the ORST 37Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+3
82.3%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
82.3%
Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the ORST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
84.5%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the ORST 28Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+5
85.0%
Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the ORST 23Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
84.9%
Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the ORST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
85.8%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the ORST 16Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+4
86.8%
Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the ORST 12 Quentin Hayes fumbled, recovered by ORST Skyler Thomas S. Thomas return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:3217% → 16%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
83.0%
Gabarri Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+15
83.3%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 15 yds to the ORST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
83.7%
Gabarri Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
84.3%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Trent Walker for 6 yds to the ORST 33Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+2
83.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 35Similar
Q3 2:51
4TH & 2
OWN 35
-1
84.3%
Gabarri Johnson sacked by Grant Uyl for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:4690% → 98%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
89.8%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
90.2%
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the ORST 30Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+7
90.8%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 7 yds to the ORST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
91.3%
Oregon State Penalty, Offsides (Andy Alfieri) to the ORST 18Similar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 5
OPP 18
+1
91.5%
Kade Frew run for 1 yd to the ORST 17Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+4
91.8%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the ORST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
92.0%
Kade Frew run for 5 yds to the ORST 8Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+7
92.4%
Dylan Carson run for 7 yds to the ORST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.1%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:312% → 2%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.8%
Salahadin Allah run for 6 yds to the ORST 31Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
97.8%
Gabarri Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
97.8%
Gabarri Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+12
97.9%
Gabarri Johnson run for 12 yds to the ORST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
97.9%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Trent Walker for 18 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
98.0%
Gabarri Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
98.0%
Gabarri Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-1
98.1%
Gabarri Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 11
OPP 40
-7
98.2%
Gabarri Johnson sacked by David Santiago for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 7:1799% → 100%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.2%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+12
99.2%
Quentin Hayes run for 12 yds to the ORST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.3%
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the ORST 35Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+6
99.4%
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the ORST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.4%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the ORST 26Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+4
99.5%
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the ORST 22Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+6
99.5%
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the ORST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
99.6%
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the ORST 10Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+7
99.6%
Owen Allen run for 7 yds to the ORST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.6%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the ORST 2Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:380% → 0%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Gabarri Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
99.9%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 26 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Gabarri Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
99.9%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 9 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+6
99.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 6 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-9
99.9%
Gabarri Johnson sacked by Jaylin Reese for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 19
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+9
100.0%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Jake Reichle for 9 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+4
99.9%
Gabarri Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
100.0%
(00:11) Kneel down by TEAM at AF27 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 2:43
Quentin Hayes run for 28 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down
+7.4
TD · Q2 4:45
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q4 12:58
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com