2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:09 · Ben Gulbranson run for 3 yds to the WSU 47 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 1:41: Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 43 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +22.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:04: John Mateer run for 4 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +27.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:19: Taariq Al-Uqdah 29 Yd Interception Return (Dean Janikowski Kick) — WSU win probability +25.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:45: Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 4 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +34.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:20: Everett Hayes 55 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +29.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 13:24WSU 4th & 19 at WSU 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snapGo for it73.9%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.1%average punt
- Q1 9:39ORST 4th & 3 at WSU 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.0%53% to convertField goal27.8%−0.238% to makePunt27.8%−0.2average punt
- Q1 0:42ORST 4th & 2 at WSU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt32.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 13:31WSU 4th & 4 at ORST 16, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snapGo for it67.9%46% to convertField goalTheir call67.8%−0.181% to makePunt65.2%−2.7average punt
- Q3 11:29ORST 4th & 11 at WSU 29, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.8% before the snapGo for it46.3%−1.226% to convertField goalTheir call47.5%58% to makePunt41.7%−5.8average punt
- Q3 6:34WSU 4th & 8 at ORST 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snapGo for it58.0%−0.734% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.7%average punt
- Q3 3:09ORST 4th & 1 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call49.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt45.2%−4.2average punt
- Q4 14:32WSU 4th & 1 at ORST 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.9%71% to convertField goal27.7%−5.256% to makePunt24.4%−8.5average punt
- Q4 4:14ORST 4th & 8 at WSU 20, down 7Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 22.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.8%−1.632% to convertField goal20.5%75% to makePunt11.1%−9.4average punt
- Q4 0:59ORST 4th & 6 at WSU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.7%40% to convertField goal53.4%−4.325% to makePunt54.5%−3.2average punt
- Q4 0:20ORST 4th & 9 at WSU 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snapGo for it57.1%−6.232% to convertField goalTheir call63.3%40% to makePunt51.7%−11.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 7:05ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.2%97% to makeGo for two31.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:19WSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.0%97% to makeGo for two69.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:06ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.8%97% to makeGo for two40.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:04WSU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.1%97% to makeGo for two65.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q2 0:13ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.2%97% to makeGo for two46.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:57WSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.5%97% to makeGo for two54.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 1:41ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.9%97% to makeGo for two63.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:04WSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.3%97% to makeGo for two47.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:19WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.5%97% to makeGo for two73.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:45ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.0%97% to makeGo for two45.8%−2.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 1:3678% → 77%
Q1 13:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-15
22.9%
Washington State Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Unsportsmanlike Conduct on WILLIAMS, Kyle enforced (-15 Yards) to the WSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD12 plays · 55 yds · 6:1523% → 30%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
24.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 14 yds to the ORST 31 Oregon State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Anthony Hankerson) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+8
25.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 8 yds to the WSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+13
26.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 13 yds to the WSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4671% → 74%
Q1 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
28.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 8 yds to the WSU 33Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+17
29.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 17 yds to the ORST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
26.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 28 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4DOWNS8 plays · 37 yds · 3:3328% → 30%
WSUDrive 5FG5 plays · 37 yds · 2:0472% → 72%
ORSTDrive 6TD12 plays · 78 yds · 6:1728% → 41%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
28.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Trent Walker for 6 yds to the ORST 28Similar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
29.1%
(12:12) GULBRANSON, Ben pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for CLEMONS, Darrius broken up by HALL, Stephen at the WSU30, clock 12:03. PENALTY WSU Pass Interference on HALL, Stephen enforced 15 yards to the OSU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-5
31.7%
Oregon State Penalty, False Start (Jermaine Terry II) to the WSU 36Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+17
30.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Trent Walker for 17 yds to the WSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+17
32.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 17 yds to the WSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:0063% → 75%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 5 yds to the WSU 30Similar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
37.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 9 yds to the WSU 46Similar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
37.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the ORST 48Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+14
37.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 14 yds to the ORST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+5
36.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 5 yds to the ORST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
36.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 9 yds to the ORST 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD6 plays · 61 yds · 0:4430% → 48%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+31
29.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Trent Walker for 31 yds to the WSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+24
33.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 24 yds to the WSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.2%
(00:21) GULBRANSON, Ben pass short to the right incomplete intended for CAUFIELD, Bryce thrown to the WSU0, clock 00:16. PENALTY WSU Holding on MOKU, Tanner enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the WSU1 to the WSU0 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
43.4%
PENALTY WSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on CUSANO, Frank OSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on REICHLE, Jake , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10FG9 plays · 46 yds · 3:3045% → 55%
Q3 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
45.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 8 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+16
46.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 16 yds to the WSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
49.3%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 20 yds to the WSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3146% → 62%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
51.9%
Wayshawn Parker run for 2 yds to the WSU 47 Washington State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jackson Lataimua) to the WSU 43Similar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 18
OWN 43
+57
38.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 57 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12INT5 plays · 23 yds · 1:5842% → 45%
WSUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1963% → 59%
Q3 7:10
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-1
37.4%
John Mateer sacked by Semisi Saluni for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD9 plays · 91 yds · 4:4544% → 73%
Q3 5:42
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+25
44.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Trent Walker for 25 yds to the ORST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
48.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Trent Walker for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
51.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Trent Walker for 4 yds to the WSU 43Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+43
73.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 43 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3633% → 61%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
66.8%
Kyle Williams run for 10 yds to the WSU 35 for a 1ST down Oregon State Penalty, Personal Foul (Exodus Ayers) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+4
62.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 4 yds to the ORST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 19
OPP 48
+18
68.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 18 yds to the ORST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16INT TD2 plays · 1 yds · 0:4350% → 25%
ORSTDrive 17TD20 plays · 75 yds · 8:3425% → 62%
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
24.5%
(11:11) GULBRANSON, Ben pass to the left incomplete intended for WALKER, Trent thrown to the OSU25, clock 11:06. PENALTY WSU Holding on HALL, Stephen enforced 10 yards from the OSU25 to the OSU35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
27.0%
(05:39) GULBRANSON, Ben pass to the left complete for 4 yards to WALKER, Trent caught at the WSU26 and advanced to the WSU18 (GUSHIKEN, Kapena), out of bounds, clock 05:33. PENALTY OSU Illegal Touch-Pass on WALKER, Trent enforced 5 yards from the WSU22 to the WSU27, penalty results in a loss of down [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+7
23.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Trent Walker for 7 yds to the WSU 20Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+15
21.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 15 yds to the WSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
61.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 4 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18FUMBLE3 plays · 24 yds · 0:4653% → 56%
ORSTDrive 19FG12 plays · 12 yds · 1:3261% → 90%
WSUDrive 20FUMBLE4 plays · 16 yds · 0:1321% → 17%
Q4 0:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 5 yds Gabarri Johnson fumbled, recovered by ORST Skyler Thomas S. Thomas return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 5 yds Kyle Williams fumbled, recovered by ORST Skyler Thomas S. Thomas return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:45
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 4 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
+34.3
FG · Q4 0:20
Everett Hayes 55 yd FG GOOD
+29.5
TD · Q4 12:04
John Mateer run for 4 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-27.9