Louisiana

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2692nd
  Defense+0.1531st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.5%65th
  Defense48.4%6th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3379th
  Defense+1.0798th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1881st
  Defense+0.2010th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3692nd
  Defense+0.1166th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.5%77th
  Defense54.1%5th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense28.7%28th
  Defense33.6%20th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2476th
  Defense3.3611th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.1%64th
  Defense14.8%19th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.2%91st
  Defense13.6%14th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Louisiana allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   GRAM
2. W
   KENN
3. L
   TULN
4. W
   WAKE
5. W
   USM
6. W
   APP
7. W
   CCU
8. W
   TXST
9. W
   ARST
10. L
    USA
11. W
    TROY
12. W
    ULM
13. L
    MRSH
14. L
    TCU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Louisiana.

Players, 2024

1. Ben WooldridgeQB275 plays · +0.255 pts/play · 69th of 232 QBs
   1.31WAR0.80 to 1.80
2. Chandler FieldsQB91 plays · +0.235 pts/play · 142nd of 232 QBs
   0.40WAR0.23 to 0.57
3. Lance LeGendreWR41 plays · +0.295 pts/play · 26th of 452 WRs
   0.23WAR0.14 to 0.31
4. Bill DavisRB123 plays · +0.094 pts/play · 137th of 373 RBs
   0.22WAR0.13 to 0.30
5. Zylan PerryRB99 plays · +0.110 pts/play · 142nd of 373 RBs
   0.20WAR0.13 to 0.28
6. Kenneth AlmendaresPK26 plays · +0.390 pts/play · 1st of 114 kickers
   0.19WAR0.13 to 0.25
7. Dre WashingtonRB67 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 183rd of 373 RBs
   0.16WAR0.11 to 0.21
8. Terrance Carter Jr.TE40 plays · +0.157 pts/play · 21st of 221 TEs
   0.12WAR0.01 to 0.23

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Louisiana's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  55355395th of 131Roster talent: 553, 95th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14114192nd of 131Recruiting: 141, 92nd of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  48%48%61st of 130Returning production: 48%, 61st of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +4.8+4.852nd of 131SP+ rating: +4.8, 52nd of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Louisiana's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.05 of the 0.12 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at USMQ4 5:29 4th & 2 at USM 2, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
2. at TXSTQ4 7:07 4th & 4 at TXST 27, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
3. vs APPQ4 10:44 4th & 1 at UL 37, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
4. at CCUQ4 5:58 4th & 4 at CCU 20, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
5. at WAKEQ3 10:22 4th & 5 at WAKE 33, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
6. vs APPQ2 5:26 4th & 2 at UL 30, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. vs TULNQ2 9:14 4th & 3 at TULN 3, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. at USMQ3 2:07 4th & 4 at USM 13, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

34th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Louisiana's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   GRAM
2. W

   KENN
3. L

   TULN
4. W

   WAKE
5. W

   USM
6. W

   APP
7. W

   CCU
8. W

   TXST
9. W

   ARST
10. L

    USA
11. W

    TROY
12. W

    ULM
13. L

    MRSH
14. L

    TCU

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Louisiana's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.38
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.05
• Timeouts−0.02
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.59

Game by game

• GRAMW 40-10 vs GRAM73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +29
• KENNW 34-10 at KENN85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +21, Clock +1
• TULNL 33-41 vs TULN47% → 3%Before kickoff −3 · On the field −43: Scoreboard −49, Clock −3
• WAKEW 41-38 at WAKE43% → 79%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +41, Clock +4
• USMW 23-13 at USM88% → 98%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +20, Timeouts +2
• APPW 34-24 vs APP73% → 98%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +30
• CCUW 34-24 at CCU68% → 97%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +41, Clock +3
• TXSTW 23-17 at TXST40% → 96%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +55, Clock +3
• ARSTW 55-19 vs ARST80% → 100%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +23
• USAL 22-24 vs USA68% → 12%Before kickoff +18 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −45, Clock −4
• TROYW 51-30 vs TROY73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +30
• ULMW 37-23 at ULM76% → 99%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +31, Clock +2
• MRSHL 3-31 vs MRSH66% → 0%Before kickoff +16 · On the field −66: Scoreboard −62, Clock −2
• TCUL 3-34 at TCU23% → 0%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −26

Points of win probability, from Louisiana's side.

Closest call

MRSH 51-54 UL (2025) - Louisiana dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.