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ARST

Arkansas State 19 at Louisiana 55

UL
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG—UL 80.4%Kenneth Almendares 44 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q1 3:04
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:04 · Kenneth Almendares 44 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Home team on offense+3.2Pregame prior+24.6Score differential+0.4Blowout margin−0.3Garbage-time factor+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:15: Dre'lyn Washington run for 46 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +6.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:23: Zylan Perry run for 4 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +4.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:47: Bill Davis run for 13 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:07: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ARST win probability +8.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:52: Zak Wallace run for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ARST win probability +3.7 pts (now 5%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:51ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:54UL 4th & 7 at UL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:17ARST 4th & 11 at UL 32, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:04UL 4th & 7 at ARST 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:58ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 29, down 17
    Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:25ARST 4th & 17 at ARST 45, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:54UL 4th & 6 at ARST 28, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:28ARST 4th & 8 at midfield, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:27UL 4th & 6 at UL 29, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 9:07UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:15UL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:23UL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:47UL Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:07ARST Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:52ARST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:57UL Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:34UL Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:46UL Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:48ARST Touchdown, down 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:0920% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 9 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
80.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
79.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
79.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 6 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
79.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:51
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
79.7%
Ryan Heicher punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4980% → 79%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
79.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
79.7%
Zylan Perry run for 3 yds to the UL 24Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
79.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
79.4%
Nathan Torney punt for 46 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for no gain to the ARST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1821% → 21%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
79.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the ARST 30Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
79.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Tyrone Lewis Jr. return for no gain to the UL 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 3:1379% → 81%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
79.4%
Bill Davis run for 8 yds to the UL 37Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+13
79.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Dalen Cambre for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
50
+3
79.4%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
79.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 6 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+17
79.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jaydon Johnson for 17 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
79.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 4 yds to the ARST 20Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
80.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 20 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:5020% → 20%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
79.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 7 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
79.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Malik Hornsby for no gain to the ARST 32Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+16
79.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 16 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
79.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 10 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
79.4%
Zak Wallace run for 6 yds to the UL 36Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+5
79.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 5 yds to the UL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
79.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-4
78.9%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Mason Narcisse and K.C. Ossai for a loss of 4 yards to the UL 32Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
79.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 11
OPP 32
0
79.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6FG
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:0780% → 80%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
80.0%
Zylan Perry run for 21 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
80.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 17 yds to the ARST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
80.7%
Zylan Perry run for no gain to the ARST 30Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
80.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 3 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
80.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+44
80.4%
Kenneth Almendares 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:5920% → 19%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
80.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+2
79.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+5
80.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 5 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
80.0%
Arkansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARST 30Similar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 15
OWN 30
-2
80.2%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jordan Lawson and Mason Narcisse for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 28Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 17
OWN 28
0
80.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+3
80.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 3 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+4
80.8%
Ryan Heicher punt for 37 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 4 yds to the UL 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:4581% → 88%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
80.6%
Bill Davis run for 4 yds to the UL 40Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
81.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Ty Stamey for 5 yds to the UL 45Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
80.7%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the UL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
81.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
81.0%
Ben Wooldridge run for 6 yds to the ARST 46 Ben Wooldridge fumbled, recovered by UL Terrance Carter T. Carter return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+46
87.8%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 46 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:0914% → 13%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
86.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 12 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
86.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+2
86.4%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 2
OWN 30
-1
86.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 29Similar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+32
87.2%
Ryan Heicher punt for 44 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 32 yds to the ARST 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 2:1789% → 93%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
89.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 4 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+4
89.1%
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+9
89.1%
Zylan Perry run for 9 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
88.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 20 yds to the ARST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.1%
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:518% → 7%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
91.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the ARST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
91.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the UL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
91.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
91.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 1 yd to the UL 47Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 9
OPP 47
-13
92.0%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jordan Lawson for a loss of 13 yards to the ARST 40Similar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 22
OWN 40
+5
92.7%
Louisiana Penalty, Offsides (Mason Narcisse) to the ARST 45Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
92.8%
Ryan Heicher punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD
8 plays · 94 yds · 3:3093% → 98%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+94
93.3%
Bill Davis run for 94 yds Louisiana Penalty, Offensive Holding (Terrance Carter) to the UL 5Similar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 11
OWN 5
+13
93.4%
Ben Wooldridge run for 13 yds to the UL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
93.7%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 13 yds to the UL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+47
94.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 47 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
94.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 9 yds to the ARST 13Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 13
0
95.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+13
98.0%
Bill Davis run for 13 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 1:342% → 10%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
98.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 8 yds to the ARST 25Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+7
98.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
98.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 11 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
98.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 15 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
98.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 14 yds to the UL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
97.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 4 yds to the UL 24Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+4
97.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the UL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
97.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 4 yds to the UL 20Similar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
97.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
89.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.1%
(00:07) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at UL24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 4:0697% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
96.6%
Zylan Perry run for 17 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
96.9%
Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the UL 43Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+25
97.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 25 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
97.5%
Louisiana Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jax Harrington) to the ARST 40Similar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 18
OPP 40
0
97.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 18
OPP 40
+7
97.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 7 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+5
97.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 5 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
99.0%
Kenneth Almendares 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:021% → 5%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 4 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+26
99.1%
Zak Wallace run for 26 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
99.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 15 yds to the UL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
99.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 11 yds to the UL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
99.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the UL 13Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
95.4%
Zak Wallace run for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:4597% → 100%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
96.4%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the UL 31Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+15
96.4%
Arkansas State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Nate Martey) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
50
+22
96.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 22 yds to the ARST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
96.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Bill Davis for 18 yds to the ARST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.6%
Bill Davis run for 10 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18INT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:581% → 0%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
99.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 6 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 7 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
99.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the ARST 42Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
99.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 5 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 7
50
-4
99.7%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jordan Lawson for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 46Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Tyree Skipper return for no gain to the UL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:19100% → 100%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.7%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the UL 23Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
99.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+28
99.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 28 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+35
99.7%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 35 yds to the ARST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.8%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 14 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:060% → 0%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Devin Spencer run for 6 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
99.8%
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
99.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.8%
Devin Spencer run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 8
50
0
99.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 8
50
0
99.8%
Ryan Heicher punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:41100% → 100%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Ty Stamey for 7 yds to the UL 27Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+15
99.8%
Arkansas State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Justin Parks) to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
99.8%
Bill Davis run for 15 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
99.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Ty Stamey for 19 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.9%
Bill Davis run for 4 yds to the ARST 20Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+6
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Trayv'on Culbert for 6 yds to the ARST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Chaz Ward for 2 yds to the ARST 12Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Chandler Fields run for 12 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 4:520% → 0%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.9%
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ARST 25Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+17
99.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Tennel Bryant for 17 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
99.9%
Timmy McClain run for 9 yds to the UL 49Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the UL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Devin Spencer for 8 yds to the UL 37Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+23
99.9%
Devin Spencer run for 23 yds to the UL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
99.9%
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the UL 10Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Timmy McClain run for 10 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Tylon Citizen run for 1 yd to the UL 26Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Dale Martin for 3 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Nathan Torney punt for 54 yds, downed at the ARST 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
100.0%
Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the ARST 20Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+4
100.0%
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ARST 24Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+4
100.0%
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ARST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
100.0%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the ARST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:07
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-8.2
TD · Q2 12:15
Dre'lyn Washington run for 46 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q2 7:23
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com