Louisiana

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0733rd
  Defense+0.1339th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense38.7%19th
  Defense46.1%9th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2136th
  Defense+1.1781st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1161st
  Defense+0.1424th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.0819th
  Defense+0.2039th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.9%24th
  Defense52.6%7th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense26.4%19th
  Defense27.7%70th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9046th
  Defense3.299th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.6%23rd
  Defense16.6%22nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.0%39th
  Defense13.5%18th

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Louisiana allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   RICE
2. W
   MCN
3. L
   MIZ
4. L
   EMU
5. W
   MRSH
6. L
   JMU
7. L
   USM
8. L
   TROY
9. W
   USA
10. W
    TXST
11. W
    ARST
12. W
    ULM
13. L
    DEL

Bars above the line: better than expected for Louisiana.

Players, 2025

1. Lunch WinfieldQB331 plays · +0.257 pts/play · 29th of 231 QBs
   1.59WAR1.08 to 2.25
2. Zylan PerryRB131 plays · +0.094 pts/play · 90th of 365 RBs
   0.23WAR0.16 to 0.31
3. Shelton Sampson Jr.WR59 plays · +0.173 pts/play · 77th of 451 WRs
   0.19WAR0.06 to 0.31
4. Bill DavisRB142 plays · +0.070 pts/play · 125th of 365 RBs
   0.19WAR0.10 to 0.27
5. Daniel BealeQB57 plays · +0.126 pts/play · 186th of 231 QBs
   0.13WAR0.04 to 0.22
6. Tony SternerPK21 plays · +0.308 pts/play · 12th of 112 kickers
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.17
7. Walker HowardQB45 plays · +0.131 pts/play · 192nd of 231 QBs
   0.11WAR0.03 to 0.19
8. Caden JensenTE36 plays · +0.057 pts/play · 112th of 213 TEs
   0.04WAR−0.03 to 0.10

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Louisiana's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  58658691st of 134Roster talent: 586, 91st of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14414490th of 134Recruiting: 144, 90th of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  14%14%110th of 132Returning production: 14%, 110th of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −10.1−10.1103rd of 134SP+ rating: −10.1, 103rd of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Louisiana's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.11 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at USAQ4 1:55 4th & 1 at UL 10, up 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
2. at ARSTQ4 2:26 4th & 8 at ARST 43, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
3. at JMUQ3 12:47 4th & 2 at UL 48, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
4. at DELQ2 7:05 4th & 3 at DEL 5, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
5. at TROYQ3 12:45 4th & 1 at UL 31, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
6. vs USMQ3 9:35 4th & 3 at USM 7, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
7. at DELQ4 7:49 4th & 6 at DEL 8, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−1.0 pts
8. at ARSTQ4 13:35 4th & 6 at ARST 33, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

76th of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Louisiana's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   RICE
2. W

   MCN
3. L

   MIZ
4. L

   EMU
5. W

   MRSH
6. L

   JMU
7. L

   USM
8. L

   TROY
9. W

   USA
10. W

    TXST
11. W

    ARST
12. W

    ULM
13. L

    DEL

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at Louisiana's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.13
• Possession & field position−0.05
• Clock+0.12
• Timeouts−0.23
• Other+0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.04

Game by game

• RICEL 12-14 vs RICE78% → 5%Before kickoff +28 · On the field −73: Scoreboard −54, Clock −3
• MCNW 34-10 vs MCN92% → 99%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +12
• MIZL 10-52 at MIZ4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −6
• EMUL 31-34 at EMU55% → 11%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −23, Timeouts −4
• MRSHW 54-51 vs MRSH50% → 45%Before kickoff 0 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −14, Clock −3
• JMUL 14-24 at JMU10% → 3%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −16, Timeouts −1
• USML 10-22 vs USM40% → 84%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +25, Timeouts +1
• TROYL 23-35 at TROY30% → 2%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −31, Timeouts −1
• USAW 31-22 at USA41% → 97%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3
• TXSTW 42-39 vs TXST41% → 96%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +3
• ARSTW 34-30 at ARST38% → 78%Before kickoff −12 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +39, Possession & field position −5
• ULMW 30-27 vs ULM76% → 78%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +20, Timeouts −19
• DELL 13-20 at DEL58% → 12%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −47: Scoreboard −31, Possession & field position +2

Points of win probability, from Louisiana's side.

Closest call

MRSH 51-54 UL (2025) - Louisiana dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.