Try the model
USM

Southern Miss 22 at Louisiana 10

UL
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Cajun Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDSAFETYEnd of GameFG+1.9UL 67.7%Tony Sterner 24 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 7 · Q3 9:35
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:35 · Tony Sterner 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Home team on offense+9.2Pregame prior−4.0Garbage-time factor+3.2Score differential+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:21: Lunch Winfield run for 3 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK) — UL win probability +4.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:40: PENALTY UL Sideline Inteference 15 yards from USM35 to USM50. NO PLAY. — USM win probability +3.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:43: Timeout Louisiana, clock 03:43 — USM win probability +13.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:42: Tony Sterner kickoff for 14 yds — UL win probability +13.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:33: Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the UL 33 — USM win probability +13.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 11:22USM 4th & 6 at UL 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:21UL 4th & 1 at USM 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.2%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:14USM 4th & 5 at USM 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:11UL 4th & 7 at UL 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:56UL 4th & 4 at USM 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:35UL 4th & 3 at USM 7, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%−1.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−9.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:45USM 4th & 7 at UL 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    33.8%−1.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:38UL 4th & 8 at UL 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:16USM 4th & 6 at USM 18, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:20UL 4th & 2 at UL 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.4%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:49USM 4th & 6 at UL 38, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−1.8
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%−3.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:53USM 4th & 2 at UL 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−5.0
    64% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−9.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 3:21UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 3:2560% → 59%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 1 yd to the USM 26Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
40.4%
Jeffery Pittman run for 9 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
40.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
40.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for 8 yds to the USM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
40.6%
Braylon Braxton run for 5 yds to the UL 49Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+8
40.7%
Matt Jones run for 8 yds to the UL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
40.8%
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the UL 38Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+5
40.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 5 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+1
40.9%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the UL 32Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-5
41.2%
PENALTY USM False Start (Roman,Broderick) 5 yards from UL32 to UL37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
41.3%
Jack Murley punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2TD
18 plays · 85 yds · 7:5342% → 49%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
41.5%
Zylan Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 14Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+10
41.6%
Zylan Perry run for 10 yds to the UL 24Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
41.8%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the UL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
42.1%
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds to the UL 30Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
42.3%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Robert Williams for 5 yds to the UL 35Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
42.5%
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the UL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
42.7%
Lunch Winfield run for 6 yds to the UL 43Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
43.5%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the UL 46Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+13
43.5%
Bill Davis run for 13 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
44.1%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Caden Jensen for 18 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
44.5%
Bill Davis run for 8 yds to the USM 15Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+3
44.6%
Lunch Winfield run for 3 yds to the USM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
44.9%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Jaydon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+1
44.9%
Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the USM 11Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+8
44.8%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Caden Jensen for 8 yds to the USM 3Similar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
48.7%
Lunch Winfield run for 3 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4952% → 51%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
47.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Bralon BrownSimilar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
48.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
48.9%
Reed Harradine punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5849% → 48%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
48.8%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Dale MartinSimilar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
48.7%
Zylan Perry run for 3 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
48.8%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Charles RobertsonSimilar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+11
48.3%
Nathan Torney punt for 52 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 11 yds to the USM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:0051% → 52%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
48.7%
Robert Briggs run for 11 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
48.4%
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
48.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 5 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
48.3%
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the USM 47 Robert Briggs fumbled, recovered by UL Cameron WhitfieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5352% → 56%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
51.7%
Lunch Winfield run for 4 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+6
52.1%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Caden Jensen for 6 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
52.6%
Bill Davis run for 4 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+1
53.2%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Trenton Chaney for 1 yd to the USM 32Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+1
53.1%
Lunch Winfield run for 1 yd to the USM 31Similar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
56.0%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Charles RobertsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7FG
13 plays · 77 yds · 5:2162% → 68%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
62.3%
Zylan Perry run for 6 yds to the UL 22Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+12
62.4%
Zylan Perry run for 12 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
62.6%
Lunch Winfield run for 5 yds to the UL 39Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+26
64.4%
Lunch Winfield run for 26 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
65.0%
Lunch Winfield run for 7 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+14
65.0%
Bill Davis run for 14 yds to the USM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
67.5%
Lunch Winfield run for 5 yds to the USM 9Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-10
67.6%
(11:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Winfield,Lunch rush left for 0 yards to the USM09 (Tapp,J'Mond) PENALTY UL Holding (Williams,Bryant) 10 yards from USM09 to USM19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 15
OPP 19
-1
67.5%
Bill Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 20Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 16
OPP 20
+13
65.8%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Trenton Chaney for 13 yds to the USM 7Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
67.7%
Tony Sterner 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:2236% → 36%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+28
64.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 28 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
60.8%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the UL 44Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
61.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+1
61.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Matt Jones for 1 yd to the UL 43Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
64.4%
Jack Murley punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UL 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:4869% → 69%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
68.6%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the UL 3Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+15
68.6%
Southern Miss Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (J'Mond Tapp) to the UL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
70.2%
Zylan Perry run for 16 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
71.2%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the UL 37Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
71.9%
Steven Blanco run for no gain to the UL 37Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
70.9%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Trenton ChaneySimilar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
69.4%
Nathan Torney punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10TD
5 plays · 94 yds · 0:5132% → 33%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
68.5%
(04:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Pittman,Jeffery rush right for 4 yards gain to the USM10 (Williams,Terrence; Clark,Jalen) PENALTY USM Holding (Heath,Kyirin) 3 yards from USM06 to USM03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 13
OWN 3
-1
68.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 2Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 14
OWN 2
0
69.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 14
OWN 2
+98
70.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 98 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)Similar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
67.1%
PENALTY UL Sideline Inteference 15 yards from USM35 to USM50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11FUMBLE
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:1272% → 84%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.0%
Lunch Winfield run for 6 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
73.1%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the UL 34Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
72.6%
Lunch Winfield run for 12 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
77.0%
Bill Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 45Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+5
76.3%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Landon Baptiste for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 6
50
-5
78.7%
PENALTY UL False Start 5 yards from UL50 to UL45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+27
77.5%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Charles Robertson for 27 yds to the USM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
82.2%
Bill Davis run for 12 yds to the USM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
82.3%
Bill Davis run for no gain to the USM 16Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
82.8%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Trey Miller for 3 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 7
OPP 13
-10
82.2%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Winfield,Lunch pass complete short right to Miller,Trey caught at USM18, for 0 yards to the USM13 (Montgomery,Michael) PENALTY UL Holding (Miller,Trey) 10 yards from USM13 to USM23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 17
OPP 23
+20
82.3%
Lunch Winfield run for 20 yds to the USM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
84.4%
Lunch Winfield run for 2 yds to the USM 1 Lunch Winfield fumbled, recovered by USM Jabari IshmaelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:5222% → 18%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
77.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the USM 2Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+1
78.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the USM 3Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+6
80.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for 6 yds to the USM 9Similar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+5
81.2%
(10:23) Harradine,Reed punt 42 yards to the UL49 return for loss of 1 yard to the UL48 (Harper,Joseph) PENALTY UL Running Into The Kicker (Jones,Lester) 5 yards from USM09 to USM14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
78.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 13Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+1
79.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the USM 14Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+9
80.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 9 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 1
OWN 23
-5
81.1%
PENALTY USM False Start (Nunnery,Greg) 5 yards from USM23 to USM18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
81.9%
Reed Harradine punt for 60 yds , Robert Williams returns for no gain to the UL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4385% → 88%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
84.6%
Lunch Winfield run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 21Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+13
85.9%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Dale Martin for 13 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
87.0%
Lunch Winfield run for no gain to the UL 34Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
87.1%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Caden Jensen for 5 yds to the UL 39Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-5
88.2%
PENALTY UL False Start (Chaney,Trenton) 5 yards from UL39 to UL34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+8
87.9%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Caden Jensen for 8 yds to the UL 42Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
88.4%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Rahji DennisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:2421% → 19%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
79.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the UL 39Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
79.0%
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the UL 36Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 4
OPP 36
-2
78.3%
Braylon Braxton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 38Similar
Q4 4:49
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
80.9%
Jack Murley punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15SF
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5493% → 94%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
93.1%
Lunch Winfield run for 8 yds to the UL 11Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 2
OWN 11
-7
94.4%
Lunch Winfield sacked by Garrick Ponder for a loss of 7 yards to the UL 4Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 9
OWN 4
0
94.9%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Dale MartinSimilar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 9
OWN 4
0
94.2%
L. Winfield sacked by C. Jones for -8 yds for a SAFETY,L. Winfield fumbled, recovered by UL B. Davis,for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16END OF GAME
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:3319% → 16%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
81.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the UL 33Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+3
81.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the UL 30Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+4
82.8%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the UL 26Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+7
82.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 7 yds to the UL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
77.0%
(01:27) Kneel down by Southern Miss. at UL20 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-1
79.1%
(00:44) Kneel down by Southern Miss. at UL21 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 21
-1
84.1%
(00:27) Kneel down by Southern Miss. at UL22 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-84.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:42
Tony Sterner kickoff for 14 yds
+13.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:33
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the UL 33
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com