Louisiana

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2060th
  Defense+0.1070th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.4%71st
  Defense38.9%79th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2543rd
  Defense+1.3714th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1972nd
  Defense+0.1533rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2040th
  Defense+0.1184th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.9%71st
  Defense43.4%86th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.2%61st
  Defense31.1%47th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2268th
  Defense3.2526th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.9%36th
  Defense15.4%30th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.5%71st
  Defense18.1%76th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Louisiana allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   TEX
2. W
   NICH
3. W
   OHIO
4. W
   GASO
5. W
   USA
6. W
   APP
7. W
   ARST
8. W
   TXST
9. W
   GAST
10. W
    TROY
11. W
    LIB
12. W
    ULM
13. W
    APP
14. W
    MRSH

Bars above the line: better than expected for Louisiana.

Players, 2021

1. Levi LewisQB391 plays · +0.237 pts/play · 48th of 219 QBs
   1.73WAR0.98 to 2.41
2. Montrell Johnson Jr.RB131 plays · +0.217 pts/play · 61st of 387 RBs
   0.53WAR0.41 to 0.68
3. Chris SmithRB132 plays · +0.175 pts/play · 87th of 387 RBs
   0.43WAR0.28 to 0.55
4. Emani BaileyRB84 plays · +0.224 pts/play · 119th of 387 RBs
   0.35WAR0.28 to 0.42
5. Peter LeBlancWR43 plays · +0.161 pts/play · 170th of 474 WRs
   0.13WAR0.08 to 0.18
6. Rhys ByrnsP49 plays · +0.132 pts/play · 41st of 101 punters
   0.12WAR0.04 to 0.23
7. Kyren LacyWR33 plays · +0.163 pts/play · 234th of 474 WRs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.14
8. Dontae FlemingWR26 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 299th of 474 WRs
   0.07WAR0.05 to 0.10

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Louisiana's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  43643696th of 130Roster talent: 436, 96th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14914982nd of 130Recruiting: 149, 82nd of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  71%71%71st of 128Returning production: 71%, 71st of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +8.7+8.747th of 130SP+ rating: +8.7, 47th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Louisiana's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.02 of the 0.08 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at TROYQ2 0:01 4th & 1 at UL 15, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
2. vs NICHQ2 0:03 4th & 1 at UL 38, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
3. at TROYQ3 6:03 4th & 9 at TROY 27, up 8Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
4. at MRSHQ2 8:50 4th & 1 at UL 34, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
5. vs GASTQ3 2:49 4th & 5 at GAST 14, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.5 pts
6. at ARSTQ4 14:22 4th & 4 at UL 39, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
7. at USAQ2 6:55 4th & 2 at UL 18, up 20Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. vs APPQ4 0:29 4th & 6 at APP 35, up 8Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

5th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Louisiana's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   TEX
2. W

   NICH
3. W

   OHIO
4. W

   GASO
5. W

   USA
6. W

   APP
7. W

   ARST
8. W

   TXST
9. W

   GAST
10. W

    TROY
11. W

    LIB
12. W

    ULM
13. W

    APP
14. W

    MRSH

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Louisiana's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+3.06
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock+0.05
• Timeouts+0.04
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.54

Game by game

• TEXL 18-38 at TEX26% → 0%Before kickoff −24 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −28, Timeouts −1
• NICHW 27-24 vs NICH95% → 69%Before kickoff +45 · On the field −25: Scoreboard +4, Possession & field position −2
• OHIOW 49-14 vs OHIO87% → 100%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +16
• GASOW 28-20 at GASO85% → 18%Before kickoff +35 · On the field −67: Scoreboard −16, Possession & field position −4
• USAW 20-18 at USA79% → 59%Before kickoff +29 · On the field −20: Scoreboard +17
• APPW 41-13 vs APP38% → 100%Before kickoff −12 · On the field +62: Scoreboard +55, Timeouts −1
• ARSTW 28-27 at ARST88% → 95%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +23, Clock +1
• TXSTW 45-0 vs TXST92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +11
• GASTW 21-17 vs GAST80% → 96%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +22, Timeouts +1
• TROYW 35-21 at TROY68% → 97%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +42, Clock +1
• LIBW 42-14 at LIB35% → 100%Before kickoff −15 · On the field +65: Scoreboard +61, Clock +2
• ULMW 21-16 vs ULM91% → 95%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +15, Timeouts +1
• APPW 24-16 vs APP42% → 98%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts +2
• MRSHW 36-21 at MRSH62% → 99%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +43, Clock +2

Points of win probability, from Louisiana's side.

Closest call

MRSH 51-54 UL (2025) - Louisiana dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.