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UL

Louisiana 36 at Marshall 21

MRSH
2021 · R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl · Dec 18, 2021 · Caesars Superdome
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:21 · Rhys Byrns punt for 47 yds , Willie Johnson returns for 24 yds to the Marsh 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Home team on offense−3.9Pregame prior−4.1Score differential−2.9Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:50: Rasheen Ali 63 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick) — MRSH win probability +5.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Nate Snyder 24 Yd Field Goal — UL win probability +7.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:01: Rasheen Ali 9 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick) — MRSH win probability +16.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:20: Emani Bailey 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — UL win probability +30.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:54: Montrell Johnson 3 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) — UL win probability +24.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 8:04MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:29UL 4th & 6 at MRSH 25, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.2%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:45UL 4th & 4 at UL 19, up 3
    Close callPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:39MRSH 4th & 13 at MRSH 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:42UL 4th & 4 at UL 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:50UL 4th & 1 at UL 34, down 4
    Close callPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:55MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:28UL 4th & 8 at MRSH 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00UL 4th & 7 at MRSH 7, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−7.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:41MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 35, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:05UL 4th & 1 at MRSH 12, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−4.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−17.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:56MRSH 4th & 21 at MRSH 12, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−7.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:21UL 4th & 17 at UL 40, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−5.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:04UL 4th & 17 at UL 45, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−5.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:54MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 38, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:28MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 23, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.0 ptsPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%−5.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:26MRSH 4th & 25 at MRSH 10, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:26UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:50MRSH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:32MRSH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:01MRSH Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:20UL Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    55.0%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    56.5%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:54UL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−2.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:41UL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 5:2262% → 63%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
38.2%
Levi Lewis run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
38.3%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+10
38.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 10 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
38.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 8 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
38.6%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+9
38.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Emani Bailey for 9 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
38.7%
Levi Lewis run for 3 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+6
38.8%
Montrell Johnson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+8
38.9%
Montrell Johnson run for 8 yds to the Marsh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
38.9%
Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 24Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+17
39.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Emani Bailey for 17 yds to the Marsh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
39.1%
Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 9Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
37.5%
Kyren Lacy 9 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1638% → 38%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
38.1%
Grant Wells sacked by TEAM for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 18Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+5
37.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 5 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
37.6%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Marsh 28Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
37.7%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+7
37.5%
Robert Lefevre punt for 44 yds , Eric Garror returns for 7 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3FG
14 plays · 40 yds · 6:2663% → 64%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
37.5%
Levi Lewis sacked by TJ Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+8
37.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 8 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
37.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 10 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
37.0%
Montrell Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+2
36.8%
Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+5
36.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 5 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
36.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 2 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+4
36.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kaleb Carter for 4 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+3
36.5%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+6
37.0%
MARSHALL Penalty, Delay of Game (6 Yards) to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
36.1%
Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
35.9%
Montrell Johnson run for no gain to the Marsh 25Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
35.9%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Dontae FlemingSimilar
Q1 1:29
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
36.1%
Nate Snyder 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3935% → 41%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
35.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 12 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
35.6%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+63
41.3%
Rasheen Ali 63 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0259% → 58%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
41.1%
T.J. Wisham run for no gain to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
41.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 6 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
41.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 4
OWN 19
-2
41.8%
Rhys Byrns punt for 48 yds for a 1ST down , Talik Keaton returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Percy Butler) to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:0643% → 41%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
42.7%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+5
42.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 5 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-15
43.0%
Ali, Rasheen rush for 18 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE28, PENALTY MARSHALL face mask (Miller, Devin) 15 yards to the MARSHALL39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+4
41.1%
Sheldon Evans run for 4 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 13
OWN 43
+1
40.7%
Robert Lefevre punt for 47 yds , Eric Garror returns for 1 yd to the LaLaf 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5759% → 57%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
41.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Pearse MiglSimilar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
41.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Dontae FlemingSimilar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+6
42.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kaleb Carter for 6 yds to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 4
OWN 17
+10
42.7%
Rhys Byrns punt for 51 yds , Willie Johnson returns for 10 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 1:1043% → 50%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+32
43.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 32 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
44.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 12 yds to the LaLaf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
49.7%
Rasheen Ali 14 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4253% → 52%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.5%
Montrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
46.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
48.4%
Levi Lewis run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
48.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 44 yds , Willie Johnson returns for 2 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:5548% → 51%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
48.3%
Willie Johnson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
48.5%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Devin MillerSimilar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+14
47.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 14 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
50.9%
Rasheen Ali run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 38Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+6
50.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 6 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+4
50.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Devin Miller for 4 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
50.8%
Robert Lefevre punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11FG
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2750% → 52%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
49.9%
Emani Bailey run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+55
49.4%
Levi Lewis run for 55 yds to the Marsh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
46.4%
Emani Bailey run for 7 yds to the Marsh 13Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+3
46.6%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the Marsh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
46.7%
Levi Lewis run for 1 yd to the Marsh 9Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
46.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Montrell Johnson for 3 yds to the Marsh 6Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
47.2%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the Marsh 3Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
48.5%
LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (Nathan Thomas) to the Marsh 8Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
47.6%
Nate Snyder 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:4551% → 55%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.8%
Rasheen Ali run for 8 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
52.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 11 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
53.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 7 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-26
54.5%
Grant Wells pass intercepted Bralen Trahan return for 26 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13END OF HALF
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:4354% → 60%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+42
46.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 42 yds to the Marsh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
44.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
44.3%
Levi Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 6Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
46.0%
Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 7Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
40.2%
Nate Snyder 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1344% → 43%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
44.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
44.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 2 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
44.0%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Rasheen AliSimilar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
43.1%
Robert Lefevre punt for 35 yds, downed at the LaLaf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:3659% → 59%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
41.5%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+17
40.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 17 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
39.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 12 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
39.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+16
39.3%
Levi Lewis run for 16 yds to the Marsh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
38.2%
Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 20Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+2
38.3%
Levi Lewis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 18Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+6
39.6%
Montrell Johnson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 12Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 1
OPP 12
0
41.5%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Dontae FlemingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 3:0944% → 42%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
44.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the Marsh 14Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+7
43.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 7 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+2
43.2%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the Marsh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
44.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
44.9%
Grant Wells run for 4 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-18
43.8%
Rasheen Ali run for a loss of 18 yards to the Marsh 12 Rasheen Ali fumbled, forced by Trey Amos, recovered by MarshSimilar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 21
OWN 12
+3
42.0%
Robert Lefevre punt for 44 yds , Eric Garror returns for 3 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3560% → 55%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
40.2%
Emani Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
40.8%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Emani BaileySimilar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 12
OWN 45
-5
42.1%
Levi Lewis sacked by Owen Porter and TJ Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 17
OWN 40
+24
44.6%
Rhys Byrns punt for 47 yds , Willie Johnson returns for 24 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18TD
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:2046% → 69%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
46.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 4 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
48.7%
Sheldon Evans run for 5 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+8
47.6%
Sheldon Evans run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
49.7%
Willie Johnson run for 19 yds to the LaLaf 27 MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 1
OPP 37
+4
49.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 4 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
51.5%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+7
51.7%
Rasheen Ali run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
51.8%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Talik KeatonSimilar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
51.7%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Devin MillerSimilar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+14
49.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
51.9%
Sheldon Evans run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+4
51.8%
Grant Wells run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
68.7%
Rasheen Ali 9 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5238% → 35%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
62.4%
Johnson, Montrell rush for loss of 2 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE23, PENALTY MARSHALL face mask (Porter, Owen) 15 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ULLAFAYTTE.Similar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
60.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 12 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
57.5%
Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 49
-4
60.9%
Levi Lewis run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 17
OWN 45
0
63.5%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Michael JeffersonSimilar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 17
OWN 45
+22
65.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Willie Johnson at the MARSHALL 18 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Jayrin Wilson) to the Marsh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1067% → 70%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
67.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 32Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+3
67.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+5
66.9%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Trey Amos) to the Marsh 40Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-2
71.5%
Rasheen Ali run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 38Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
69.6%
Robert Lefevre punt for 30 yds, downed at the LaLaf 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:3437% → 60%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
63.3%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
61.1%
Bailey, Emani rush for 4 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE41, PENALTY MARSHALL offside 4 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+2
60.7%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
62.0%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr.Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
63.2%
Levi Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+48
66.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 48 yds to the Marsh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
56.8%
Bailey, Emani rush for 4 yards to the MARSHALL8, PENALTY MARSHALL substitution infraction 5 yards to the MARSHALL7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 5
OPP 7
-5
57.0%
LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 12Similar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
57.2%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+8
57.2%
Montrell Johnson run for 8 yds to the Marsh 4Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
39.7%
Emani Bailey 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4549% → 45%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
49.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+6
49.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 6 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
48.0%
Rasheen Ali run for no gain to the Marsh 23Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
45.3%
Robert Lefevre punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:3460% → 92%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
40.0%
Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+54
40.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 54 yds to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
33.5%
Montrell Johnson run for 11 yds to the Marsh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
33.2%
Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 8Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
32.8%
Montrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 3Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
7.9%
Montrell Johnson 3 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:2814% → 10%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
13.6%
MARSHALL Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 20Similar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-10
13.4%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Willie Johnson MARSHALL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (James Magee) to the Marsh 10Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 25
OWN 10
0
13.0%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 25
OWN 10
0
12.3%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Shadeed AhmedSimilar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
10.4%
Robert Lefevre punt for 42 yds, downed at the LaLaf 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 25TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 1:4593% → 99%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
7.4%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+11
6.6%
Emani Bailey run for 11 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
5.7%
Emani Bailey run for 9 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+19
4.2%
Emani Bailey run for 19 yds to the Marsh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
3.3%
Emani Bailey run for 8 yds to the Marsh 2Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.4%
Emani Bailey 2 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:192% → 2%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
2.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 13 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
2.3%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Xavier GainesSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-7
2.3%
Grant Wells sacked by Andre Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 31 Grant Wells fumbled, forced by Andre Jones, recovered by LaLaf Kris Moncrief , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4099% → 99%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 32Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 11
OPP 32
-1
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:20
Emani Bailey 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-30.3
TD · Q4 3:54
Montrell Johnson 3 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)
-24.9
TD · Q3 1:01
Rasheen Ali 9 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick)
+16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com