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UL

Louisiana 42 at Liberty 14

LIB
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:41 · Rhys Byrns punt for 38 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Home team on offense−12.9Score differential−8.0Pregame prior+9.1Garbage-time factor−4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:06: Max Morgan run for 21 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +12.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:57: Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 30 yds for a TD (Brayden Beck KICK) — LIB win probability +14.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:57: Timeout LIBERTY, clock 11:57 — UL win probability +8.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:44: Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +17.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:11: Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +9.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 9UL made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 14:49LIB 4th & 6 at UL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    63.2%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:16UL 4th & 5 at UL 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:33UL 4th & 8 at LIB 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:33LIB 4th & 17 at LIB 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:39UL 4th & 10 at UL 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:40LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:10UL 4th & 3 at LIB 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q1 4:10UL 4th & 2 at LIB 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q1 0:09LIB 4th & 29 at LIB 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−2.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:46LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 10:54UL 4th & 14 at UL 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−2.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 9:06LIB 4th & 17 at LIB 47, down 14
    Numbers favored punt by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.9%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.6%
    average punt
  13. Q2 5:41UL 4th & 15 at UL 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:15UL 4th & 16 at UL 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−3.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:08UL 4th & 3 at LIB 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%−1.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−11.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:04LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:24LIB 4th & 5 at UL 28, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−1.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:24UL 4th & 1 at UL 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.1%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:00LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 45, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 1:57UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:19UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:06UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:14LIB Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:57LIB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:44UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:11UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:26UL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:5565% → 65%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
50
+7
65.4%
Malik Willis run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q1 14:49
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+3
65.4%
Shedro Louis run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q1 14:49
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
65.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q1 14:49
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+13
65.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 13 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
65.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q1 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
65.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+4
65.4%
Shedro Louis run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29 Shedro Louis fumbled, forced by Andre Jones, recovered by LaLaf Andre JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3835% → 35%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
65.2%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+2
65.2%
Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
65.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Chris SmithSimilar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
65.2%
Rhys Byrns punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4335% → 35%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
64.6%
Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds to the Liber 12Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
64.6%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Hunter BergeronSimilar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
64.7%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
64.9%
Nate Snyder 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 3:0065% → 64%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
65.0%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 9 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
65.2%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
64.9%
Malik Willis run for 5 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
65.1%
T.J. Green run for 1 yd to the Liber 35Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+2
65.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to T.J. Green for 2 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-15
64.8%
Willis,Malik pass complete to Douglas,Demario for 20 yards to the LOU47 (Pedescleaux,Kam) PENALTY LIB Personal Foul (Schultz,Tristan) 15 yards from LIB33 to LIB18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 26
OWN 18
+9
64.8%
Malik Willis run for 9 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 17
OWN 27
+26
64.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 40 yds , Eric Garror returns for 26 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5436% → 35%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
64.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for no gain to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
64.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Neal JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
64.7%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Errol Rogers Jr.Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
64.8%
Rhys Byrns punt for 43 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5965% → 64%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
64.5%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the Liber 13Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
64.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
64.1%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
63.6%
Aidan Alves punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
12 plays · 41 yds · 3:4337% → 44%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
63.0%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Errol Rogers Jr.Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
63.0%
Chris Smith run for 7 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
62.9%
Chris Smith run for no gain to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+4
63.1%
Levi Lewis run for 4 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
62.3%
Chris Smith run for 10 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
62.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Errol Rogers Jr.Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
62.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 4 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+12
63.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 12 yds to the Liber 12Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+8
62.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 8 yds to the Liber 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
56.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -19 yds · 1:4159% → 57%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-12
58.6%
Malik Willis sacked by Chauncey Manac for a loss of 12 yards to the Liber 21Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 22
OWN 21
-10
58.3%
Willis,Malik rush for 6 yards gain to the LIB27, End Of Play PENALTY LIB Holding (Sargeant,Thomas) 10 yards from LIB21 to LIB11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 32
OWN 11
0
58.3%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 32
OWN 11
+3
58.0%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 29
OWN 14
0
56.9%
Max Morgan punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 0:4144% → 51%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+32
55.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Emani Bailey for 32 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
55.0%
Levi Lewis run for 9 yds to the Liber 15Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+15
48.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 15 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2747% → 45%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
46.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 3 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
47.1%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
47.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+7
45.0%
Max Morgan punt for 49 yds , Eric Garror returns for 7 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5257% → 56%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
43.5%
Lewis,Levi pass incomplete to Jefferson,Michael, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LIB Pass Interference (Anthony,Daijahn) 13 yards from LOU20 to LOU33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
43.0%
Levi Lewis sacked by Storey Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+2
43.2%
Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+4
43.5%
Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
44.0%
Rhys Byrns punt for 39 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12FUMBLE TD
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:4840% → 29%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+22
40.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 22 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
41.8%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
41.7%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Johnny HuntleySimilar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-10
41.6%
Malik Willis sacked by Chauncey Manac for a loss of 10 yards to the Liber 47Similar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 17
OWN 47
+21
29.4%
Max Morgan run for 21 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 1:4629% → 36%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
29.0%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+13
28.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 13 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+44
29.0%
DJ Stubbs pass complete to Shedro Louis for 44 yds to the LaLaf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
31.1%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Brody BrummSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-8
31.0%
Malik Willis sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 18
OPP 29
+29
35.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 29 yds for a TD (Brayden Beck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3364% → 63%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.8%
Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
35.7%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Pearse MiglSimilar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
36.2%
Levi Lewis sacked by Aakil Washington for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
36.8%
Rhys Byrns punt for 38 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15PUNT
19 plays · 14 yds · 4:4233% → 27%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
33.0%
Malik Willis pass complete to Trevor Hobbs for 5 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+1
33.1%
Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the Liber 48Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+13
32.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 13 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
33.3%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
33.3%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+15
32.9%
Malik Willis run for 15 yds to the LaLaf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
34.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Johnny HuntleySimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
34.3%
T.J. Green run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
33.6%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
34.4%
Malik Willis run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
29.5%
Willis,Malik rush for 2 yards gain to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:00 PENALTY LIB Holding (Bodden,Jacob) 10 yards from LOU02 to LOU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
-10
29.2%
Willis,Malik rush for 1 yard gain to the LOU11 (Gardner,Ferrod), out of bounds PENALTY LIB Holding (Schultz,Tristan) 10 yards from LOU12 to LOU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 22
0
29.3%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q2 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
-9
29.1%
Malik Willis sacked by Chauncey Manac for a loss of 9 yards to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 31
-13
27.7%
Malik Willis sacked by Chauncey Manac for a loss of 13 yards to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 44
0
26.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:5971% → 75%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
28.8%
Emani Bailey run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+2
24.7%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -21 yds · 1:4066% → 67%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
34.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Errol Rogers Jr.Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+2
34.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 2 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 15
-8
35.0%
Levi Lewis sacked by Stephen Sings V for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 16
OWN 7
0
33.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 48 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:1836% → 50%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
36.1%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+8
36.1%
Shedro Louis run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
50.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 30 yds for a TD (Brayden Beck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:0358% → 79%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
41.7%
Montrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
40.6%
Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
40.7%
Montrell Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
39.7%
Montrell Johnson run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+34
39.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 34 yds to the Liber 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
37.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 4 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+12
37.9%
Lewis,Levi pass incomplete to Jefferson,Michael, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LIB Pass Interference (Anthony,Daijahn) 12 yards from LIB14 to LIB02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
38.0%
Montrell Johnson run for no gain to the Liber 2Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.0%
Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
24.7%
Malik Willis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1980% → 81%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
20.4%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+8
20.7%
Emani Bailey run for 8 yds to the Liber 6Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+1
20.5%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the Liber 5Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 3
OPP 5
0
19.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Pearse MiglSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22INT
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:3521% → 19%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
21.4%
Malik Willis run for 6 yds to the Liber 11Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+43
21.6%
T.J. Green run for 43 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
24.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 4 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
24.5%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+2
24.5%
Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-6
24.5%
Willis,Malik pass complete to Daniels,CJ for 16 yards to the LOU20 (Butler,Percy; Amos,Trey) PENALTY LIB Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Sargeant,Thomas) 6 yards from LOU36 to LOU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 16
OPP 42
0
23.8%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 16
OPP 42
0
19.3%
Malik Willis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:2284% → 97%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
15.9%
Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
15.0%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Michael JeffersonSimilar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-5
15.3%
PENALTY LOU Delay Of Game 5 yards from LOU39 to LOU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+23
16.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 23 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
13.0%
Chris Smith run for 17 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+24
12.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 24 yds to the Liber 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:402% → 1%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
1.8%
T.J. Green run for 3 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+9
1.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
1.9%
Malik Willis sacked by Jourdan Quibodeaux for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 30Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+6
1.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to T.J. Green for 6 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+8
1.8%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 8 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+23
1.9%
Malik Willis run for 23 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
2.2%
Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
2.3%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Jaivian LoftonSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
2.2%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Shedro LouisSimilar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 5
OPP 28
-6
1.4%
Malik Willis sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 25TD
14 plays · 66 yds · 7:5898% → 100%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
1.7%
Montrell Johnson run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+1
1.6%
Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+1
1.6%
Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+10
1.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Pearse Migl for 10 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
1.6%
Emani Bailey run for 14 yds to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
1.5%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+11
1.5%
Emani Bailey run for 11 yds to the Liber 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
1.6%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+3
1.6%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the Liber 11Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+4
1.6%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the Liber 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
1.6%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the Liber 2Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26INT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
0.0%
Malik Caper run for 4 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+1
0.0%
Malik Caper run for 1 yd to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
0.0%
Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete to D'Wayne CrawfordSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
0.0%
Johnathan Bennett pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -4 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
0.1%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 32
-2
0.1%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:44
Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)
-17
TD · Q3 11:57
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 30 yds for a TD (Brayden Beck KICK)
+14.3
TD · Q2 9:06
Max Morgan run for 21 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)
-12.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com