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UL

Louisiana 35 at Troy 21

TROY
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:59 · Rhys Byrns punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Home team on offense−42.3Pregame prior−0.9Score differential−20.0Garbage-time factor−11.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 2:12: Brooks Buce 30 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +3.1 pts (now 39%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:31: Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 13 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +11.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:03: Levi Lewis run for 27 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +10.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:13: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds for a TD, (Gunnar Watson pass to Deshon Stoudemire for Two-Point Conversion) — TROY win probability +16.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:15: Montrell Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +11.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 9 of 12UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 6 at UL 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:25UL 4th & 2 at TROY 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:52TROY 4th & 10 at UL 32, tied
    Close callWent for it · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    37.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:12TROY 4th & 7 at UL 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:10TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:12UL 4th & 7 at TROY 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:29TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:29UL 4th & 12 at UL 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:20TROY 4th & 2 at UL 29, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%−1.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−5.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:34UL 4th & 8 at UL 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:10TROY 4th & 8 at midfield, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:01UL 4th & 1 at UL 15, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:08TROY 4th & 18 at TROY 17, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−3.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:08UL 4th & 1 at TROY 43, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    70.1%−3.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:03UL 4th & 9 at TROY 27, up 8
    Close callWent for it · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.8%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    74.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−6.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:42TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 24, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:05TROY 4th & 10 at UL 42, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−0.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    15.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:06UL 4th & 22 at UL 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−6.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:15TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%−0.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:15TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:59UL 4th & 4 at UL 37, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:25TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:52UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:00UL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:31UL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:03UL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:13TROY Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:15UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3532% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
32.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
32.4%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
32.4%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 44
0
32.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+7
32.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 7 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+27
32.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 27 yds to the LaLaf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
34.7%
Gunnar Watson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:3366% → 66%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+43
34.3%
Chris Smith run for 43 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
34.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Chris Smith for 9 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+2
34.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 2 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
34.0%
Chris Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
34.0%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+2
34.1%
Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+2
34.2%
Levi Lewis run for 2 yds to the Troy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
34.0%
LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+5
34.0%
Montrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
34.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 15 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 5:4035% → 39%
Q1 7:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
35.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 15 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
35.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 8 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+11
36.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 11 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
36.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 10 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
36.3%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
35.4%
TROY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+3
35.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
36.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
35.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+16
35.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 16 yds to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
36.3%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 6
OPP 12
-1
36.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
36.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
39.1%
Brooks Buce 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 1:1261% → 65%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
38.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Pearse Migl for 9 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+6
38.0%
Montrell Johnson run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
34.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 52 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:5036% → 35%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.8%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
35.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
35.1%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 42 yds , Eric Garror returns for no gain to the LaLaf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:4864% → 64%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
36.1%
Montrell Johnson run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-2
35.6%
Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+9
36.5%
Levi Lewis run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
35.8%
Levi Lewis run for 12 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
34.9%
Chris Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
34.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Chris Smith for no gain to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+2
35.2%
Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 11:12
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
36.5%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4338% → 36%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
37.6%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
37.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
36.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for no gain to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+16
35.8%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 48 yds , Ja'Marian Peterson returns for 16 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
36.3%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-2
36.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 12
OWN 31
0
37.6%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
38.2%
Rhys Byrns punt for 50 yds, downed at the Troy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 5:0937% → 42%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
37.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 10 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
37.2%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
36.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+14
36.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 14 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
38.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
39.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+18
38.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 18 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
39.5%
B.J. Smith run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
40.2%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-1
39.2%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+47
41.9%
Brooks Buce 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4662% → 59%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
38.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+2
38.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 2 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+1
39.6%
Levi Lewis run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
40.8%
Rhys Byrns punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:2441% → 41%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
41.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 16 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
43.6%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 13
OWN 45
0
41.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+5
39.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 8
50
0
40.9%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1060% → 61%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
39.7%
Chris Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 5Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+3
40.0%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+7
40.9%
Chris Smith run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
41.4%
Rhys Byrns punt for 70 yds, downed at the Troy 15Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
38.7%
SMITH, Chris rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the LA 40 (CHOLOH, Will;BROWN, Shakel). PENALTY LA Chop Block on MARKS, Ken enforced 15 yards from the LA 37 to the LA 22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 3:2960% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+19
39.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 19 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
37.5%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+40
37.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 40 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
35.9%
Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
-1
35.9%
Peter LeBlanc run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
24.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 13 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2328% → 26%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
27.8%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
27.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
26.5%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Chauncey Manac for 0 yards to the Troy 17Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
25.7%
punt for 35 yds, downed at the LaLaf 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:0576% → 86%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
24.5%
Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 8
50
0
24.3%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 8
50
+7
24.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 7 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+3
25.9%
Levi Lewis run for 3 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
24.2%
Montrell Johnson run for 8 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+4
23.7%
Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
23.7%
Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
23.8%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
24.6%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+27
13.9%
Levi Lewis run for 27 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2116% → 14%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
15.8%
Gunnar Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
15.3%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Andre Jones for 0 yards to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+5
14.3%
MAGLIOZZI, Luke punt 35 yards to the LA 46, fair catch by GARROR, Eric. PENALTY LA Offsides on BERNARD, Jacob enforced 5 yards from the TRO19 to the TRO24. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
14.3%
punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 4:4288% → 91%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
12.1%
Chris Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+1
12.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 1 yd to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 12
OWN 38
-5
12.6%
LEWIS, Levi pass to the right incomplete intended for LACY, Kyren thrown to the TRO34. PENALTY Before the snap, LA False Start on WILSON, Jayrin enforced 5 yards from the LA 38 to the LA 33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
12.6%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 17
OWN 33
0
12.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 18Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 12
OWN 38
-5
9.2%
LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 3:5214% → 32%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
14.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+16
14.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 16 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
14.5%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
14.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+24
13.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Demontrez Brown for 24 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
16.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
16.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
15.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 10
OPP 42
+20
15.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 20 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
17.2%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
17.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+14
16.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 14 yds to the LaLaf 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+15
16.4%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (Levi Lewis) to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+13
15.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 13 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
31.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds for a TD, (Gunnar Watson pass to Deshon Stoudemire for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 3:0777% → 75%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
22.7%
Montrell Johnson run for 16 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
21.1%
Montrell Johnson run for no gain to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
21.4%
Levi Lewis sacked by Devan Barrett for 0 yards to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 14
OWN 39
0
23.1%
Levi Lewis sacked by Javon Solomon for 0 yards to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 22
OWN 31
+9
25.0%
Rhys Byrns punt for 44 yds , Tez Johnson returns for 9 yds to the Troy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:1427% → 29%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
27.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
26.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+14
25.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 14 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
28.7%
Gunnar Watson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 4:3783% → 96%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
17.0%
Chris Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+9
16.4%
Chris Smith run for 9 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
16.6%
Chris Smith run for 15 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
15.9%
Chris Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
15.9%
Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+2
16.5%
Levi Lewis run for 2 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
15.9%
Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
4.5%
Montrell Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22FUMBLE
11 plays · 44 yds · 1:556% → 5%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
5.5%
Gunnar Watson run for 8 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
6.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+6
5.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
6.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete pass complete to Tez Johnson for 14 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
5.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+4
5.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+9
5.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 9 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
6.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
6.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 15 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
5.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 2 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:2197% → 97%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
3.4%
Chris Smith run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+3
3.1%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+2
3.1%
Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
2.9%
Rhys Byrns punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 41 yds · 0:583% → 3%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
2.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 9 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-5
3.0%
TROY Penalty, False Start (Austin Stidham) to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+20
2.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 20 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
3.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 20 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
3.1%
Gunnar Watson sacked for 0 yards to the LaLaf 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:13
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds for a TD, (Gunnar Watson pass to Deshon Stoudemire for Two-Point Conversion)
+16.2
TD · Q3 11:31
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 13 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q4 5:15
Montrell Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK)
-11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com