Louisiana

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2069th
  Defense+0.1833rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense47.1%82nd
  Defense41.4%57th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.0913th
  Defense+1.2914th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2592nd
  Defense0.0083rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1735th
  Defense+0.3512th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense52.4%85th
  Defense44.9%69th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.4%57th
  Defense34.0%41st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.6298th
  Defense2.3494th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.2%94th
  Defense23.6%87th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.6%18th
  Defense1.5%19th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Louisiana allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   SOU
2. L
   LT
3. L
   MISS
4. L
   BOIS
5. W
   GAST
6. W
   TXST
7. W
   ARST
8. W
   USA
9. W
   NMSU
10. W
    ULM
11. L
    APP
12. W
    TROY
13. W
    NEV

Bars above the line: better than expected for Louisiana.

Players, 2014

1. Terrance BroadwayQB360 plays · +0.240 pts/play · 54th of 199 QBs
   1.62WAR1.09 to 2.20
2. Elijah McGuireRB169 plays · +0.154 pts/play · 21st of 350 RBs
   0.49WAR0.36 to 0.64
3. Alonzo HarrisRB130 plays · +0.097 pts/play · 93rd of 350 RBs
   0.24WAR0.12 to 0.34
4. Hunter StoverPK15 plays · +0.443 pts/play · 38th of 114 kickers
   0.12WAR0.09 to 0.16
5. James ButlerWR46 plays · +0.123 pts/play · 191st of 469 WRs
   0.11WAR0.06 to 0.15
6. Al RilesWR38 plays · +0.088 pts/play · 302nd of 469 WRs
   0.06WAR0.02 to 0.11
7. Jamal RobinsonWR15 plays · +0.181 pts/play · 338th of 469 WRs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.07
8. Brooks HaackQB4 plays · +0.291 pts/play · 192nd of 199 QBs
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.03

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Louisiana's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Louisiana's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.05 of the 0.13 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs NEVQ2 0:00 4th & 16 at NEV 42, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting−2.1 pts
2. at TROYQ4 14:47 4th & 5 at TROY 38, up 12Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
3. vs NEVQ2 13:01 4th & 1 at UL 21, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
4. vs ARSTQ3 8:17 4th & 19 at ARST 35, up 11Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−1.0 pts
5. at NMSUQ2 11:30 4th & 1 at UL 44, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. vs ARSTQ2 1:08 4th & 11 at ARST 37, up 11Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
7. at BOISQ3 10:58 4th & 1 at UL 34, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. at ULMQ3 11:03 4th & 4 at ULM 49, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

26th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Louisiana's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   SOU
2. L

   LT
3. L

   MISS
4. L

   BOIS
5. W

   GAST
6. W

   TXST
7. W

   ARST
8. W

   USA
9. W

   NMSU
10. W

    ULM
11. L

    APP
12. W

    TROY
13. W

    NEV

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Louisiana's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.19
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock+0.05
• Timeouts+0.04
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.46

Game by game

• SOUW 45-6 vs SOU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +3
• LTL 20-48 vs LT87% → 0%Before kickoff +37 · On the field −87: Scoreboard −72, Possession & field position −1
• MISSL 15-56 at MISS4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −6
• BOISL 9-34 at BOIS12% → 0%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −17, Timeouts +1
• GASTW 34-31 vs GAST85% → 93%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +18, Possession & field position +1
• TXSTW 34-10 at TXST42% → 100%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +57, Clock +3
• ARSTW 55-40 vs ARST46% → 99%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +53: Scoreboard +44, Timeouts +1
• USAW 19-9 vs USA70% → 94%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +28, Possession & field position +1
• NMSUW 44-16 at NMSU87% → 100%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +19, Clock +1
• ULMW 34-27 at ULM70% → 96%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +37, Clock +2
• APPL 16-35 vs APP69% → 1%Before kickoff +19 · On the field −68: Scoreboard −61, Clock −3
• TROYW 42-23 at TROY78% → 99%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +29, Clock +2
• NEVW 16-3 vs NEV47% → 99%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Louisiana's side.

Closest call

MRSH 51-54 UL (2025) - Louisiana dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.