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NEV

Nevada 3 at Louisiana 16

UL
2014 · R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl · Dec 20, 2014 · Caesars Superdome
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Cody Fajardo sacked by Boris Anyama for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 2:42: Brent Zuzo 21 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +2.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:49: Timeout NEVADA, clock 09:49 — UL win probability +4.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:50: Don Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 29 — NEV win probability +8.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:11: Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Elijah McGuire — UL win probability +4.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:46: Hunter Stover 35 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +3.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 8NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 9:53NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:55UL 4th & 8 at NEV 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:53NEV 4th & 4 at UL 49, down 10
    Close callPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:01UL 4th & 1 at UL 21, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:50NEV 4th & 4 at UL 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:02UL 4th & 3 at UL 18, up 10
    Close callPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:42NEV 4th & 3 at UL 3, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−7.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00UL 4th & 16 at NEV 42, up 7
    Numbers favored punt by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−1.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    63.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:05NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 47, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:04UL 4th & 2 at UL 24, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:11NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:16NEV 4th & 3 at midfield, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:51UL 4th & 7 at NEV 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−10.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:01NEV 4th & 10 at UL 35, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:46UL 4th & 12 at NEV 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−4.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:48NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:47UL 4th & 5 at NEV 18, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:26UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:1847% → 49%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
47.0%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 12 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
47.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 13 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
47.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+15
47.5%
Terrance Broadway run for 15 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
47.6%
Alonzo Harris run for 13 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
47.9%
Terrance Broadway run for no gain to the Nevad 18Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
48.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the Nevad 17Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+17
49.4%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to C.J. Bates for 17 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2251% → 50%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Kendall Brock for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
49.2%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
49.3%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
50.0%
Alex Boy punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 6:4750% → 55%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
50.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+5
50.6%
Terrance Broadway run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+7
50.7%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Larry Pettis for 7 yds to the LaLaf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
51.3%
Terrance Broadway run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
51.6%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 4 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+8
52.3%
Effrem Reed run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
52.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 11 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
53.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 8 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+3
53.8%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
54.5%
Terrance Broadway sacked by Ian Seau for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 16
OPP 37
0
54.2%
Terrance Broadway run for no gain to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 16
OPP 37
+8
54.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 8 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+46
55.0%
Hunter Stover 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:4845% → 43%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.8%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
55.1%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+18
55.8%
Cody Fajardo run for 18 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
54.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 8 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
54.5%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-3
55.2%
Cody Fajardo run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
56.6%
Alex Boy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4557% → 57%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
56.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
57.1%
Terrance Broadway run for no gain to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+6
56.7%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 6 yds to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
56.6%
Daniel Cadona punt for 59 yds , Richy Turner returns for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6FUMBLE
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:4942% → 41%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
58.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 8 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
57.9%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
58.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 16 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
57.6%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 12 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
57.8%
Don Jackson run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 1
OPP 30
-3
57.2%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
58.5%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+9
59.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 9 yds to the LaLaf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
57.1%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+4
57.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 4 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+8
59.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 8 yds Wyatt Demps fumbled, forced by Sean Thomas, recovered by LaLaf Dominique TovellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5961% → 61%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-3
60.6%
Terrance Broadway sacked by Charles Garrett for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+2
60.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+8
60.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 8 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
60.8%
Daniel Cadona punt for 9 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8FG
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:1341% → 40%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
59.1%
Cody Fajardo run for 16 yds to the LaLaf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
59.3%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+5
59.6%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
61.6%
Cody Fajardo run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
60.6%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Malik Reed) to the LaLaf 6Similar
Q2 3:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
60.8%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 3Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
60.8%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Kendall BrockSimilar
Q2 2:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
62.8%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q2 2:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
59.9%
Brent Zuzo 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9DOWNS
14 plays · 54 yds · 2:3462% → 64%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+20
62.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 20 yds to the LaLaf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
62.9%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 4 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+3
63.2%
Terrance Broadway run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+7
62.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 7 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
64.7%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 4 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+7
65.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Larry Pettis for 7 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
66.0%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 15 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
66.6%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to James ButlerSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
66.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 3 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-9
65.6%
Terrance Broadway sacked by Brock Hekking for a loss of 9 yards to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 16
OPP 42
0
63.7%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to C.J. BatesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4236% → 35%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
64.2%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tracy Walker) to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
63.0%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
62.2%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
62.5%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
64.8%
Alex Boy punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5366% → 65%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
66.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+2
66.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 2 yds to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+3
65.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 3 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
65.3%
Daniel Cadona punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Richy Turner at the Nevad 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4435% → 32%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
64.9%
Cody Fajardo run for 1 yd to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
65.1%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
66.3%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
68.1%
Alex Boy punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:5768% → 78%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
67.9%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 8 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
72.4%
Alonzo Harris run for no gain to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
71.1%
Alonzo Harris run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
72.7%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 28 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
76.3%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+11
77.5%
Alonzo Harris run for 11 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-9
77.7%
Terrance Broadway sacked by Lenny Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the Nevad 32 Terrance Broadway fumbled, forced by Lenny Jones, recovered by Nevad Lenny Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3431% → 29%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
69.4%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+9
70.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 9 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+5
69.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Kendall Brock for 5 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-13
69.3%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Darzil Washington for a loss of 13 yards to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 23
OWN 30
0
72.1%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Kendall BrockSimilar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 23
OWN 30
+20
73.4%
Cody Fajardo run for 20 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 3
50
0
70.6%
Alex Boy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15FG
16 plays · 77 yds · 7:2076% → 85%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
75.6%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Elijah McGuireSimilar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+12
75.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
75.9%
Alonzo Harris run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
76.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+16
78.3%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Larry Pettis for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
50
+12
80.7%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 12 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
81.2%
Alonzo Harris run for 4 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
84.0%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 5 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
84.2%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
85.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 9 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+2
85.7%
Terrance Broadway run for 2 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
86.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-4
86.9%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 17Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+4
84.2%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 4 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
85.4%
Hunter Stover 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 2:3214% → 9%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
85.7%
Cody Fajardo run for 14 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
83.6%
Cody Fajardo run for 3 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
84.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Kendall Brock for 5 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+7
85.9%
Don Jackson run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
85.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 11 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
84.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
84.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
86.4%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
90.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 4:0891% → 97%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
90.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
92.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
92.3%
Alonzo Harris run for 7 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-1
93.2%
Alonzo Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+31
93.4%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 31 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
94.1%
Terrance Broadway run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 18Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 12
OPP 18
0
94.4%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to James ButlerSimilar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 12
OPP 18
0
94.0%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Elijah McGuireSimilar
Q4 4:46
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+35
97.4%
Hunter Stover 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:524% → 3%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Kendall BrockSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 14 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
95.9%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Darzil Washington for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 16
OWN 33
0
97.1%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+9
97.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 9 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 3:48
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
96.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19MISSED FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:5498% → 99%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
97.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+16
98.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 16 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
98.5%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
98.7%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+2
98.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
98.8%
Hunter Stover 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:401% → 1%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.6%
Cody Fajardo run for 5 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-6
98.5%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Christian Ringo for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-1
98.7%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Boris Anyama for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 6:50
Don Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 29
-8.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 4:11
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Elijah McGuire
+4.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 9:49
Timeout NEVADA, clock 09:49
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com