Try the model
APP

App State 35 at Louisiana 16

UL
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Cajun Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:20 · Daniel Cadona punt for 31 yds , Bobo Beathard returns for 33 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior+14.0Home team on offense−5.0Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:45: Marcus Cox run for 8 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +3.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:46: Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK) — UL win probability +7.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Hunter Stover 26 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +4.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q3 5:39: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 40 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +18.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:35: Marcus Cox run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +21.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 11 of 12APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00UL 4th & 2 at UL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:07APP 4th & 5 at APP 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:18UL 4th & 9 at UL 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:05UL 4th & 11 at APP 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:45APP 4th & 1 at UL 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%−1.0
    90% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:20UL 4th & 16 at UL 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−1.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00UL 4th & 6 at UL 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:25APP 4th & 20 at APP 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−2.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00UL 4th & 9 at APP 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−8.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:16APP 4th & 5 at UL 10, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−9.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:16UL 4th & 12 at APP 47, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:39UL 4th & 6 at APP 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−8.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:20UL 4th & 4 at APP 16, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%−0.4
    81% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−12.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00APP 4th & 14 at APP 49, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−3.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:35UL 4th & 9 at UL 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−2.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:35UL 4th & 7 at UL 31, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:09UL 4th & 6 at UL 38, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 1:45APP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:46UL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:39APP Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:35APP Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.7
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:26APP Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.6%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 3 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
68.6%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 5 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
68.6%
Alonzo Harris run for no gain to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
68.6%
Daniel Cadona punt for 33 yds, downed at the AppSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
68.3%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
68.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
68.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
68.4%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
68.3%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+14
68.2%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Jared Johnson for 14 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
68.3%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
68.3%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+1
68.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 1 yd to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
68.1%
Daniel Cadona punt for 50 yds, downed at the AppSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
67.8%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 3
OWN 23
-1
67.7%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 22Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+3
68.0%
Taylor Lamb pass intercepted T.J. Worthy return for 3 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2968% → 68%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
68.4%
Alonzo Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 24Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+2
68.3%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 11
OPP 22
0
68.1%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+38
68.1%
Hunter Stover 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 5:2032% → 37%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
68.4%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+6
68.4%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
68.3%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 29Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
68.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+12
68.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Tacoi Sumler for 12 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
67.9%
Marcus Cox run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 1
50
+33
67.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 33 yds to the LaLaf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
67.4%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+1
67.4%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+4
67.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+8
63.2%
Marcus Cox run for 8 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2564% → 57%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
63.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
63.8%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 8
OWN 10
-8
63.3%
Terrance Broadway sacked by Ronald Blair for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 2 UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 16
OWN 2
+33
56.7%
Daniel Cadona punt for 31 yds , Bobo Beathard returns for 33 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:2058% → 58%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
57.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 12 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
58.0%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
57.9%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 7 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-3
58.3%
Terrance Broadway sacked by Devan Stringer for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
57.6%
Daniel Cadona punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
55.3%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
55.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 6 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
55.1%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
54.9%
Terrence Upshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+1
55.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for 1 yd to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-10
55.7%
Lamb, Taylor left side pass complete to McElfresh, S. for 8 yards to the APP38 (Tovell, Dominique), PENALTY APP holding (Harris, Davante) 10 yards to the APP20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 21
OWN 20
+1
55.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Tacoi Sumler for 1 yd to the AppSt 21Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 20
OWN 21
+6
56.2%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 35 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:4254% → 63%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
50
+9
54.1%
Alonzo Harris run for 9 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+10
54.3%
Alonzo Harris run for 10 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
55.1%
Broadway, Terrance deep left pass incomplete to Bates,C.J., PENALTY APP pass interference (Gibbs, Latrell) 15 yards to the APP16, 1ST DOWN UL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
55.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds to the AppSt 8Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+8
62.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11FUMBLE
8 plays · 54 yds · 0:0042% → 45%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.5%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
58.3%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
58.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 12 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
56.8%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+28
56.9%
Marcus Cox run for 28 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
55.4%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+3
55.4%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 21 Marcus Cox fumbled, forced by Travis Crawford, recovered by LaLaf Chris PraterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12FG
20 plays · 70 yds · 4:0658% → 59%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
57.6%
Alonzo Harris run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
59.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
58.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 15 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
60.5%
Effrem Reed run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+6
60.3%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 6 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
60.4%
Terrance Broadway run for 4 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
61.0%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
60.8%
Terrance Broadway run for 6 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+11
60.7%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 11 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
61.9%
Broadway, Terrance left side pass complete to Butler,James for 11 yards to the APP13, PENALTY UL illegal motion (Butler,James) 5 yards to the APP29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+5
61.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Effrem Reed for 5 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
61.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 9 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+7
57.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 7 yds to the AppSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
59.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
59.4%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 9Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
54.5%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to James ButlerSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
58.6%
Hunter Stover 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13MISSED FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:4442% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.2%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
57.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
58.8%
Lamb, Taylor deep right pass incomplete to McGuire, Montez, PENALTY UL personal foul (Ringo, Christian) 15 yards to the APP44, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
56.1%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
55.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Montez McGuireSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+27
57.3%
Taylor Lamb run for 27 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
54.3%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
54.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+11
56.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 11 yds to the LaLaf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
54.3%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
54.3%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
-2
55.5%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
55.9%
Bentlee Critcher 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
58.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to C.J. Bates for 9 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
61.1%
Alonzo Harris run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
59.1%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+17
61.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 17 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
62.8%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
62.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 4 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-6
62.2%
Terrance Broadway run for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
57.1%
Daniel Cadona punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15TD
4 plays · 84 yds · 1:0644% → 66%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+43
55.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 43 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
52.3%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
52.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+40
33.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 40 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 5:1938% → 44%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
38.2%
Terrance Broadway run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
38.4%
Alonzo Harris run for 18 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
42.3%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd to the AppSt 46Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+13
42.2%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 13 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
44.1%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-8
44.0%
Terrance Broadway sacked by Joel Ross for a loss of 8 yards to the AppSt 41Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 18
OPP 41
+12
38.7%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Effrem Reed for 12 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+7
39.8%
Terrance Broadway run for 7 yds to the AppSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
44.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+1
44.1%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd to the AppSt 16Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 4
OPP 16
0
42.1%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
43.9%
Hunter Stover 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:2061% → 60%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
38.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 14 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
35.6%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
35.2%
Marcus Cox run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
34.5%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Kendall Lamm) to the AppSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+1
36.4%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 49
0
36.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 49
0
37.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Montez McGuireSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
39.9%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 23 yds, downed at the LaLaf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0041% → 37%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
40.6%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
40.4%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to James Butler, broken up by Joel RossSimilar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
38.1%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to James ButlerSimilar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
37.1%
Daniel Cadona punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 6:0366% → 92%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
33.6%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
32.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Bobo BeathardSimilar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+13
34.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 13 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
31.0%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+17
30.8%
Marcus Cox run for 17 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
30.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
28.5%
Terrence Upshaw run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+5
28.5%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
30.1%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
28.5%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+10
28.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 10 yds to the LaLaf 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
28.5%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.6%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
9.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 6 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+5
10.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 5 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-6
10.0%
Terrance Broadway sacked by Shaedon Meadors and Deuce Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 16
OWN 22
0
9.2%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to C.J. Bates, broken up by Latrell GibbsSimilar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 16
OWN 22
+9
8.8%
Terrance Broadway run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+3
8.9%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 3 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:5895% → 99%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
5.5%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-1
5.5%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+36
1.1%
Terrence Upshaw run for 36 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:172% → 2%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-9
2.2%
Terrance Broadway sacked by Nathaniel Norwood for a loss of 9 yards to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 19
OWN 25
+4
2.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+9
2.1%
Terrance Broadway run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
1.5%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-2
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:35
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)
-21
TD · Q3 5:39
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 40 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)
-18.7
TD · Q2 7:46
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com